Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Nonlinear Thinking: Jurassic Park

Posted on January 16, 2011 by macromon

The Telegraph is reporting that the woolly mammoth could be brought back to life in  four years due to a breakthrough in cloning technology.   The advancement of technology is accelerating (positive second derivative) at a  stunning rate and we may … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, General Interest | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Nonlinear Thinking: Volt’s Battery Capacity Could Double

Posted on January 11, 2011 by macromon

That’s what were talking about! A break through in battery technology will really change the world as we know it.   MIT’s  Technology Review reports the next generation of the Chevrolet Volt and other battery-powered cars are looking at electrode materials … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Clean Tech, Economics, Electric Vehicles, Rare Earth Elements, Video | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

European Commission: The U.S. is Worse

Posted on January 11, 2011 by macromon

Here is a European Commission chart that appeared in the online version of Der Spiegel.  It could be a decoy to deflect the markets attention off Europe and push back to what they may perceive as America’s wallowing in schadenfreude … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Nonlinear thinking: Going Gaga Over Transformative Tech

Posted on January 10, 2011 by macromon

One of the great problems of asset bubbles is not only the creation of too much capacity, but the misallocation of resources.   Our good friend and market guru extraordinaire, Barry Ritholtz, wrote of one such case back in 2005,  during … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Black Swan Watch, Demographics, Employment, Equities, Technology, Video | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

“Tea Party” Opposition to the Euro Grows in Germany

Posted on January 10, 2011 by macromon

  We can’t believe we missed this over the holidays. Germany’s SpiegelOnline reported on December 27, In a survey conducted in early December by the polling firm Infratest dimap, 57 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that Germany would … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy | Tagged , | 1 Comment

State and Local Governments, Man Your Battle Stations!

Posted on January 6, 2011 by macromon

Take a look at the new cover of the Economist. We have been all over the coming “battle royal” between the state and local governments and their public sector unions, but not as much as Mike Shedlock over at the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

It’s Official! Western Europe Now An Emerging Market

Posted on January 6, 2011 by macromon

The Markit SovX CEEMEA CDS index has traded through the SovX Western Europe CDS index for the first time.   Just a little over a decade ago, some of these countries in the CEEMEA were either: 1)  in hyperinflation; 2)  in … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Risk 2011: Fate of Commodities in China’s Hands

Posted on January 4, 2011 by macromon

We begin our analysis with a little perspective on how we view the crisis.   The pre-crisis global aggregate demand was primarily driven by an over leveraged U.S. consumer, who was spending “fake wealth” created by a housing bubble financed by … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

2011 Radar: Japan Sovereign Risk

Posted on January 2, 2011 by macromon

It’s late but want to start with a quick post on what we see as potential off-radar risks that could potentially derail the equity rally.   Let’s focus tonight on Japan, which is on the mind of very few traders and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Japan, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Are we too short Bernanke?

Posted on January 2, 2011 by macromon

Sometimes we like to channel our inner bull, as in bovine, which is rare for ex-bond traders.  Trying to see all angles of the dimly lit statue we call the market is a necessity to manage the risk that: a)  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment