Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

10-year Spike: 70 Bps, 14 days

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

The rapidity of the spike in long-term Treasury rates  is starting to raise some eyebrows. The yield on the 10-year bond has increased 70 bps in just 14 days. We have identified thirteen similar moves, where rates initially spiked 70 … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Fed Ownership of the U.S Treasury Curve

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

Here’s an interesting chart we threw together showing the Fed’s ownership of Treasury securities maturing in each year on the curve.  There are no bonds maturing in 2032-35 due to the temporary discontinuance of the 30-year earlier in the millennium, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments

Argentina – “Cookie Cutter” for the European Periphery?

Posted on December 13, 2010 by macromon

“I would not say that Mexico is going to be a cookie cutter for others.” – William Rhodes, Citibank 1989 These were the words of the chairman of Mexico’s Bank Advisory Committee in 1989, just after the country and its … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The Illustrated History of the U.S. Credit Collapse

Posted on December 10, 2010 by macromon

We constructed these charts with data from today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds.  They are both stunning and frightening as they illustrate the cardiac arrest that took place in the credit markets.  The  collapse in credit issuance/borrowing … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Charts, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Global Interest Rate Spike: Young Lady or Old Hag?

Posted on December 8, 2010 by macromon

The epic interest rate spike and U.S. bond sell-off during the past few trading days is generating a fierce market debate.  The bears see it as the beginning of a new phase of the crisis, where sovereign debt woes spread … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Economics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

GOP plan: “Push states to bankruptcy and smash unions”

Posted on December 8, 2010 by macromon

In his Reuters blog,  James Pethokoukis states the biggest political battle in Washington next year will be the Congressional Republicans plan to:  a) avoid a federal bailout of financially troubled states; and b) cripple employee unions by pushing fiscally troubled … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Muni Market | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Einhorn: “Global Economy in a Period Between Two Crises”

Posted on December 7, 2010 by macromon

A must view Charlie Rose interview with David Einhorn, President of Greenlight Capital.   He is a very smart guy with an excellent track record. He speaks of the absurd way we calculate official inflation in the U.S. using the Apple … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Economics, Sovereign Risk, Video, Whales | Tagged , | Leave a comment

December 7th – A Rate Move Which Will Live In Infamy

Posted on December 7, 2010 by macromon

CNBC puts an interesting spin on the stock market sell-off and reversal in almost all commodities today, blaming the SEC insider trading probe.  We have a different view, believing it was the historic rise in long-term rates. Today’s 23 bps … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Gold, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Chart of the Day: ECB Bond Purchases

Posted on December 6, 2010 by macromon

They’ve only just begun…

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Credit, Currency, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Merkel Warned EU Germany Could Leave the Euro

Posted on December 4, 2010 by macromon

The slow motion fracturing of the Eurozone continues as revelations surfaced that German chancellor, Angela Merkel warned the EU her country could abandon the euro.  The Guradian reports the threat took place at the EU Summit in Brussels at the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments