Category Archives: Bonds

Swan Lake – May 29

Posted on May 29, 2018 by macromon

We have been warning over the past few weeks that the macro swans have been gathering.  See here, here, and here. Swan Watch The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 7 Comments

Europe Has A Big Problem

Posted on May 28, 2018 by macromon

Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella,  named Carlo Cottarelli, prime minister as the attempt to form a left-right populist coalition government fell apart after Mattarella’s veto of Eurosceptic economist, Paolo Savona as finance minister.    An extraordinary development almost tantamount to the Queen … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Italian Yields, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 32 Comments

Week In Review – May 25

Posted on May 26, 2018 by macromon

Summary The S&P500 is trapped in a 2-week trading range between 2707 to 2742. Of note, 2742.92 is the 61.8 Fibo in the correction, 2702.78 the 50 percent level Fibo.  The 100-day moving average is also support at 2710.86.  Watch … Continue reading →

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When The U.S. Government Defaulted

Posted on May 24, 2018 by macromon

One of the most pervasive myths about the United States is that the federal government has never defaulted on its debts. There’s just one problem: it’s not true, and while few people remember the “gold clause cases” of the 1930s, … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 43 Comments

QOTD: Druck On Distorted Interest Rates

Posted on May 13, 2018 by macromon

…today we have settled to allowing the most important price of all, long-term interest rates, to be regularly distorted by public intervention. …If I were trying to create a deflationary bust, I would do exact exactly what the world’s central … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Interest Rates, Quote of the Day, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Italy’s North-South Economic Divide – France24

Posted on May 9, 2018 by macromon

Italy 10-year closed at 1.88 percent today,  6.7 bps wider versus the 10-year bund for the week, but still 14 bps tighter year-to-date. The Italian 10-year government bond is 112 bps through the U.S. 10-year note yield, and the country … Continue reading →

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Dimon Says Prepare for 4% Yields – Bloomberg

Posted on May 7, 2018 by macromon

Wow!  It sounds like Jamie read our recent post,  Prepare For Much Higher Long-Term Rates.   Nah, we are just on the same page. He speculates the yield curve will not invert as it did in the last tightening cycle; long-term … Continue reading →

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Prepare For Much Higher Long-Term Rates

Posted on May 3, 2018 by macromon

There has been a huge drain of liquidity from the U.S. Treasury market over the past few years, and may signal a structural change to how the United States finances budget deficits. The government will always find a way to … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Charts, China, Credit, Geopolitical, Interest Rates, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 36 Comments

Draghi’s Monetary Policy Statement

Posted on April 26, 2018 by macromon

Apr.26 — European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks at a news conference in Frankfurt about the economy, monetary policy and inflation after the ECB maintained its pledge to move slowly in removing euro-area stimulus. (This is his opening statement.)  … Continue reading →

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