Category Archives: Bonds

The Year In Review

Posted on December 31, 2017 by macromon

An incredible year in the markets. Here’s a quick snapshot: Fixed-income – The high yielders significantly outperformed; – Greece 10-year yield down 300 bps in 2017; – China 10-year moved 85 bps higher to around 4 percent; – The U.S. … Continue reading →

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FT Forecasts 2018: Fastest global growth since the crisis

Posted on December 26, 2017 by macromon

The FT’s chief economics commentator Martin Wolf predicts that next year will see the fastest global economic growth since before the financial crisis. Unemployment will fall and productivity will likely pick up before signs of overheating emerge, forcing a potential … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Real Interest Rates Not So Real – BIS

Posted on December 21, 2017 by macromon

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is out with a very interesting piece, Why so low for so long? A long-term view of real interest rates?, by Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat, Mikael Juselius and Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul. The basic premise is … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Interest Rates Starting To Bite

Posted on December 17, 2017 by macromon

We have long held that interest rates have been so low (especially real rates) that it will take some time to reach a level for them to really matter and impact markets. The 2-year yield crossing over the S&P500 divie … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 20 Comments

Yellen Says Curve Likely To Be Flatter – Bloomberg

Posted on December 13, 2017 by macromon
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BlackRock Says Inflation Can Lift 10-Year Rate – Bloomberg

Posted on December 9, 2017 by macromon

Bloomberg TV Markets and Finance Dec.08 — Rick Rieder, global fixed income chief investment officer at BlackRock, examines the yield curve and how it impacts his 2018 investment strategy. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro on “Bloomberg Markets: The Open.”

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Ten Year Expected Returns

Posted on November 21, 2017 by macromon

Ten Year Expected Returns. Nominal returns expected for the next decade, based on valuations model, see best opportunities in the depressed $EEM stock space with an 8% return.$SPY stocks are priced at 2.6% for the next 10 years while $EFA … Continue reading →

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Party Like It’s 1999: U.S. – German 2-year Yield Divergence

Posted on November 20, 2017 by macromon

What does this mean for capital flows?  Euro should weaken, but it ain’t! ECB timid and waaaay behind the curve. The policy divergence between the U.S. & Germany is widening. The gap between U.S. & German 2-year yields is at … Continue reading →

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Another Divergence That Makes Us Nervous

Posted on November 6, 2017 by macromon

Take a look at the divergence between the high-yield ETF (JNK) and the investment grade ETF (LQD).   This makes us a bit nervous – though no panic as JNK in only 1.28 percent off its high vs. the LQD, … Continue reading →

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COTD: Corporate Debt

Posted on October 4, 2017 by macromon

No lack of supply/issuance in the corporate debt market.   No shortage of demand either. Lots of nuances in interpreting data, however.  First, much of debt going to financial engineering, i.e., stock buybacks.  Some of the supply is borrowing against capital … Continue reading →

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