Category Archives: Credit

China’s Deflating and ‘Eerily Similar’ Housing Bubble

Posted on December 13, 2011 by macromon

Wow!  Check out this. In January we compared the U.S. and China stimulus, In the U.S., the central bank printed and created money through the expansion of its balance sheet.  In China, the government pressured the  banks to create money … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged | 2 Comments

The Biggest Bubble in History?

Posted on November 14, 2011 by macromon

We are baffled by the analysis of the analyst community, some, of which, are not so analytical.  They say that  Europe’s fundamental problem is that it  has a central bank which is unwilling to monetize sizeable debt maturities which bondholders … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, Budget Deficit, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Euro, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | Tagged , , , , , , , | 17 Comments

The Creeping and Coming Eurozone Credit Crunch

Posted on October 26, 2011 by macromon

Here’s a very informative chart via Morgan Stanley showing the deterioration in the Eurozone’s key credit indicators.  Banks will no doubt sell assets, at least in part, as a way to meet their required capital targets. During the 1997 Asian … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Credit, Economics, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Most Important Spread in the World

Posted on October 23, 2011 by macromon

Given the bank recapitalization plan announced over the weekend,  the France national government may be on the hook to help recapitalize and backstop its banking system.  The markets will be full of noise in the next few days and we … Continue reading →

Posted in Credit, Euro, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Belgium Waffles w/ Irish Coffee = No Free Brunch

Posted on October 17, 2011 by macromon

Over the weekend we posted a chart illustrating how French bond yields are blowing out.  Zero Hedge posted the following chart today illustrating the Belgium – German yield spread has just hit a new high.  ZH has been spot on … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Europe’s Stressed Out Banks

Posted on October 10, 2011 by macromon

The Wall Street Journal reports Euro-zone banks’ overnight deposits at the ECB increased again last week “reflecting deepening distrust in interbank lending markets.”  The Journal writes, Overnight deposits Friday rose to €255.57 billion ($341.88 billion), surpassing Thursday’s 2011 high of … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Credit, Euro, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Third Macro Panda Huffs and Puffs…

Posted on September 29, 2011 by macromon

Over the weekend we posted a piece on the three McBears weighing on global markets.  As all eyes continue to focus on Europe the third macro bear — China — is beginning to growl a little louder.   Greece is no … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China, Credit, Equities | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Disintermediation in China’s Banking System

Posted on September 26, 2011 by macromon

The consequences of negative real interest rates and financial repression.   We know how this story ends.   Keep this one on your radar. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Credit, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy, Real Estate | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Phases of the Credit Cycle

Posted on September 22, 2011 by macromon

Another great chart from the IMF. (click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Charts, Credit | Tagged | 5 Comments

Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 2

Posted on July 26, 2011 by macromon

Still no panic, but lower.  The dollar took the biggest beating and looks ready to take out its May lows.  Only T-Bonds of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse moved contrary to what we call the Armageddon trade, where gold … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments