Category Archives: Credit

Most Important Spread in the World

Given the bank recapitalization plan announced over the weekend,  the France national government may be on the hook to help recapitalize and backstop its banking system.  The markets will be full of noise in the next few days and we … Continue reading

Posted in Credit, Euro, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Belgium Waffles w/ Irish Coffee = No Free Brunch

Over the weekend we posted a chart illustrating how French bond yields are blowing out.  Zero Hedge posted the following chart today illustrating the Belgium – German yield spread has just hit a new high.  ZH has been spot on … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Europe’s Stressed Out Banks

The Wall Street Journal reports Euro-zone banks’ overnight deposits at the ECB increased again last week “reflecting deepening distrust in interbank lending markets.”  The Journal writes, Overnight deposits Friday rose to €255.57 billion ($341.88 billion), surpassing Thursday’s 2011 high of … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Credit, Euro, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Third Macro Panda Huffs and Puffs…

Over the weekend we posted a piece on the three McBears weighing on global markets.  As all eyes continue to focus on Europe the third macro bear — China — is beginning to growl a little louder.   Greece is no … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China, Credit, Equities | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Disintermediation in China’s Banking System

The consequences of negative real interest rates and financial repression.   We know how this story ends.   Keep this one on your radar. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Credit, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy, Real Estate | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Phases of the Credit Cycle

Another great chart from the IMF. (click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Charts, Credit | Tagged | 5 Comments

Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 2

Still no panic, but lower.  The dollar took the biggest beating and looks ready to take out its May lows.  Only T-Bonds of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse moved contrary to what we call the Armageddon trade, where gold … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Chart of the Day: Dr. Copper Falls Through the Ice

Dr. Copper broke through its support at 4.10 and is below 4.00 for the first time since early December.   Lots of flakes in this chart as head and shoulder patterns are ubiquitous.   Copper is a very crowded trade and some … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Dollar, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Charts of the Day: Asian Credit Bubble?

Great chart from Deustche Bank of Asian home prices indexed to Jan’07.   It’s becoming increasingly clear, at least to us, that a big part of Asia is in massive credit/asset bubble and as monetary tightening plays out their day of … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Currency | Tagged , | Leave a comment

10 Questions for Chairman Bernanke

If we were attending the Fed’s historic press conference tomorrow,  here are the ten questions we would ask Chairman Bernanke: 1)  Do you think the new monetary policy tool of the Federal Reserve of paying interest on reserves (IOR) is … Continue reading

Posted in Budget Deficit, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Currency, Food Prices, Gold, Monetary Policy, Policy | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments