Category Archives: Equities

The Extremely Overvalued & Top Heavy U.S. Stock Market

Posted on April 19, 2020 by macromon

Caveat freaking emptor. After the Fed effectively fully nationalized the financial markets by bailing out junk bonds on April 9th, turning Wall Street into a Soviet Sausage Factory,  almost any type of analysis, which was on its way out anyway,  … Continue reading →

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Classic Bear Market Bounce

Posted on April 6, 2020 by macromon

Big move today in stocks with the S&P500 closing up 7.03 percent.  We are so glad we are out of the market. We believe stocks are now in phase two of a vicious bear market, where after the initial sharp … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Equity, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

A Long Way Down To Value

Posted on March 31, 2020 by macromon

Summary The stock market has completed the first phase of a bear market with a rapid and sharp Q1 sell-off caused by massive deleveraging Stocks still need to deal with its valuation problem as well as discounting the long-term financial … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 21 Comments

The Stock Market’s Gas Gauge

Posted on March 23, 2020 by macromon

The stock market, as defined by the Wilshire 5000 has fallen 35.1 percent from its closing high on February 19th and has been unable to sustain a decent bounce for more than a day.   Our favorite valuation metric, stock market … Continue reading →

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What A Real Bear Market Looks Like

Posted on March 19, 2020 by macromon

We’ve created an S&P/Nikkei analog to compare how the current bear market is performing relative to the first month of trading after the Nikkei stock index peak on December 29, 1989.  Japanese stocks have been in an uber 30-year bear market. … Continue reading →

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S&P500 Approaching Key Level

Posted on March 17, 2020 by macromon

Just a quick heads up.  The S&P500 has already taken out 2750.10, the first key Fib retracement of the 400 plus percent long bull market from Mar’09 to Feb ’20, and is now approaching another key Fibo at 2351.91, which … Continue reading →

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Some Perspective

Posted on March 16, 2020 by macromon

In our March 7th post,  Stages Of A Pandemic: Denial, Panic, Fear, and Rationality, we suspected the country was about to move from denial to panic over the coronavirus pandemic.   It sure did and infected the global markets in a … Continue reading →

Posted in Algos, Coronavirus, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

No Time For A Victory Lap

Posted on March 13, 2020 by macromon

President Trump gave the market what it was looking for today with a laser focus on containing the coronavirus and enlisting the private sector in the battle.   No focus on the stock market during the entire presser, which is, ironically,  … Continue reading →

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Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It

Posted on March 12, 2020 by macromon

No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous.   We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Fed Cut Fails To Inspire As Markets Deliver A Policy Margin Call

Posted on March 3, 2020 by macromon

The price action in stocks continues its remarkable volatility. The cash S&P500 traded in a 160 point range just today, or 5.4 percent.   They sold the Fed 50 bps emergency cut hard to close the S&P at 3003.37, down 2.8 … Continue reading →

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