Category Archives: Fed

Fed’s Failure To Communicate, Markets’ Failure To Count

Posted on January 29, 2019 by macromon

Not to beat a dead horse but the following example just reinforces our last post. What the market perceives, Investors who are hoping the Federal Reserve signals a change or adjustment in its balance sheet policy on Wednesday are likely … Continue reading →

Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Fed Balance Sheet Run-Off Is Smaller Than Caps

Posted on January 6, 2019 by macromon

We’re not sure if we heard Chairman Powell clarify the total balance sheet run-off for 2019, which is important as the pundits are throwing around a number a $600 billion reduction.   Completely false. We project the total run-off in 2019 … Continue reading →

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Short Covering In Bond Pits And The S&P

Posted on November 19, 2018 by macromon

Well, the virtual bond pits. Looks like specs are getting spooked and covering their bond shorts. Stunning, however,  that the 10-year note yield is right about where it was on September 21st when the S&P500 made its intraday all-time high … Continue reading →

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Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins

Posted on October 25, 2018 by macromon

We are not sure of how the next financial crisis will exactly unfold but reasonably confident it will have its roots in the following analysis.   Maybe it has already begun. The U.S. Treasury market is the center of the financial … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, ECB, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 34 Comments

FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco

Posted on October 15, 2018 by macromon

The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change,  remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading →

Posted in Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

Browbeating the Fed 2.0

Posted on October 11, 2018 by macromon

As the market melt and President Trump ramps up his rhetoric on Fed rate hikes, we thought you’d be interested in our July post. By the way,  the geopolitics in the Taiwan strait are growing much hotter since we wrote.  … Continue reading →

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QOTD: Slouching Toward A Banana Republic

Posted on October 10, 2018 by macromon

Could it be the markets are instead revolting against President Trump’s fiscal profligacy, and beginning to price in a potential debt crisis/major interest rate spike?   Just askin’. “I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

QE’s Fading Legacy Moving Long Yields Higher

Posted on October 9, 2018 by macromon

Summary The legacy of the Fed’s QE is fading in the bond auctions For the first time in several years, SOMA did not and will not participate in any of the September or October Treasury auctions The Treasury has to … Continue reading →

Posted in Debt, Fed, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Why Gold Is Such A Dog

Posted on July 20, 2018 by macromon

Summary Gold prices have been in a bear market since the August 2011 peak at $1920 Prices are making new 52-week lows Gold has primarily been a monetary asset throughout history and moves closely with the global monetary base (GMB), … Continue reading →

Posted in Euro, Fed, Gold, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Is Trump Starting To Lean On The Fed Or Setting It Up?

Posted on July 19, 2018 by macromon

President Trump said in an interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernan this morning he “does not agree”, is not “thrilled” or “happy” with the FOMC’s interest rate hikes.  The full interview and transcripts will be available tomorrow. Click here for excerpt … Continue reading →

Posted in Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 11 Comments