Category Archives: Fiscal Policy

Are we too short Bernanke?

Posted on January 2, 2011 by macromon

Sometimes we like to channel our inner bull, as in bovine, which is rare for ex-bond traders.  Trying to see all angles of the dimly lit statue we call the market is a necessity to manage the risk that: a)  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Global Corporate Tax Rates

Posted on December 30, 2010 by macromon

Lots of chatter the President is going to propose  a corporate tax cut in his State of the Union speech.    Corporations hold billions off-shore and maybe it will nudge some of it back into domestic capital expenditures or hiring? … Continue reading →

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Policy, Politics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

George Will on Coming War Over Public Pensions

Posted on December 26, 2010 by macromon

Be sure to catch George Will’s Washington Post piece on the coming battle in the new Congress over state and local public pensions.   In early December, we posted the report by James Pethokoukis of a secret Republican plan to push … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Rollover Risk 2011- Sovereign Financing Needs

Posted on December 17, 2010 by macromon

Sovereign rollover risk will be one of the major issues to monitor for 2011.   The following are some key data tables and charts produced by the IMF.   The most vulnerable countries to a rollover shock and/or failed bond auctions … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Holders of U.S. Public Debt

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

The best table we’ve seen on the U.S. government’s major creditors.  Nice compliment to our Dec11 post, Who’s Funding the U.S. Budget Deficit.  The U.S. government’s  fiscal year begins October1 and ends September 30.

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Euro Fracture: Germany’s House Party Revolt

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

Go no further than the chart below to understand the resentment and anger among the German taxpayers who are being asked to clean-up the “House Party” of fellow EU members.   The chart shows the housing bubbles of Ireland and Spain … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Europe’s Big Fail…

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

One lesson we have learned during the financial crisis is that a country’s banking system is an indirect liability of the sovereign.  That is, unless the government is willing to allow banks to fail and let the domestic financial sector … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Rollover Risk: Moody’s Warns on Spain

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

“Rollover risk” will be a major theme in 2011 and Moody’s is getting an early start.  Bloomberg writes, Spain had its Aa1 local and foreign currency government bond ratings placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

10-year Spike: 70 Bps, 14 days

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

The rapidity of the spike in long-term Treasury rates  is starting to raise some eyebrows. The yield on the 10-year bond has increased 70 bps in just 14 days. We have identified thirteen similar moves, where rates initially spiked 70 … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Fed Ownership of the U.S Treasury Curve

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

Here’s an interesting chart we threw together showing the Fed’s ownership of Treasury securities maturing in each year on the curve.  There are no bonds maturing in 2032-35 due to the temporary discontinuance of the 30-year earlier in the millennium, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments