Category Archives: Politics

Day of Reckoning for State and Local Governments

Posted on December 19, 2010 by macromon

A must view 60 Minutes on the fiscal disasters of state and local governments.  Meredith Whitney and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie weigh in.  Check it out. Click here for video

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Muni Bonds, Politics, Video | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

10-year Spike: 70 Bps, 14 days

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

The rapidity of the spike in long-term Treasury rates  is starting to raise some eyebrows. The yield on the 10-year bond has increased 70 bps in just 14 days. We have identified thirteen similar moves, where rates initially spiked 70 … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Fed Ownership of the U.S Treasury Curve

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

Here’s an interesting chart we threw together showing the Fed’s ownership of Treasury securities maturing in each year on the curve.  There are no bonds maturing in 2032-35 due to the temporary discontinuance of the 30-year earlier in the millennium, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments

filliBuster Sanders now on Senate Floor

Posted on December 10, 2010 by macromon

Bored?  Click here to watch CSPAN’s live view of Senator Bernie Sanders “ tax cut filibuster” on the Senate floor.   CSPAN  writes, He began his speech by saying, “I am simply here today to take as long as I … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Politics | Tagged , | 2 Comments

December 7th – A Rate Move Which Will Live In Infamy

Posted on December 7, 2010 by macromon

CNBC puts an interesting spin on the stock market sell-off and reversal in almost all commodities today, blaming the SEC insider trading probe.  We have a different view, believing it was the historic rise in long-term rates. Today’s 23 bps … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Gold, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Heads Up: Bernanke on 60 Minutes

Posted on December 3, 2010 by macromon

(CBS) In a rare and frank interview, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke talks to “60 Minutes” correspondent Scott Pelley about the troubled economy and the measures the central bank has taken to improve it for a segment to be broadcast … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Policy, Politics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

ECB About to PIIG Out on Bonds. Gold to the Moon.

Posted on November 30, 2010 by macromon

Just a few short weeks after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble criticized U.S. monetary policy with his “with all due respect, U.S. policy is clueless” statement, the FT reports the ECB is contemplating expanding its sovereign bond purchase program.  That … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Gold, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Where is Gold Headed?

Posted on November 30, 2010 by macromon

In 1996, we visited the Bulgarian central bank at a time when the country was experiencing economic turmoil and a loss of confidence that the government could rollover its maturing debt.  After a long discussion on the domestic economy and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Currency, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Gold, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

“Will the next fiscal crisis start in Washington?”

Posted on November 26, 2010 by macromon

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., writes in today’s Washington Post, Even as work continues to repair our financial infrastructure and get the economy moving again, we need urgent action to forestall the next financial crisis. I … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Is Ireland’s Rescue Package a Veiled Bailout of the ECB?

Posted on November 23, 2010 by macromon

Not that it needs a one, but some in Ireland are starting to ask the question.   The European Central Bank exposure in Ireland is above €130 BN, a quarter of its book, and now wants its money back.  In the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment