Category Archives: Sovereign Debt

It’s Official! Western Europe Now An Emerging Market

Posted on January 6, 2011 by macromon

The Markit SovX CEEMEA CDS index has traded through the SovX Western Europe CDS index for the first time.   Just a little over a decade ago, some of these countries in the CEEMEA were either: 1)  in hyperinflation; 2)  in … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

2011 Radar: Japan Sovereign Risk

Posted on January 2, 2011 by macromon

It’s late but want to start with a quick post on what we see as potential off-radar risks that could potentially derail the equity rally.   Let’s focus tonight on Japan, which is on the mind of very few traders and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Japan, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

A spectre is haunting Europe

Posted on December 22, 2010 by macromon

This is what’s  going to blow up the Europe.   All the cash and backstopping in the world is not going to solve the political problem.   Jim Corr, a member of one of our favorite Irish bands, The Corrs,  nails … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Japan Opposition Plans for “X-day” Bond Crash

Posted on December 22, 2010 by macromon

Japan’s opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)  says the government’s spending plans increase the risk of a collapse in the country’s bond market.   Bloomberg reports, “We’re approaching a danger zone where bond prices could plunge,” Yoshimasa Hayashi, the Liberal Democratic Party’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

Rollover Risk 2011- Sovereign Financing Needs

Posted on December 17, 2010 by macromon

Sovereign rollover risk will be one of the major issues to monitor for 2011.   The following are some key data tables and charts produced by the IMF.   The most vulnerable countries to a rollover shock and/or failed bond auctions … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Holders of U.S. Public Debt

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

The best table we’ve seen on the U.S. government’s major creditors.  Nice compliment to our Dec11 post, Who’s Funding the U.S. Budget Deficit.  The U.S. government’s  fiscal year begins October1 and ends September 30.

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Euro Fracture: Germany’s House Party Revolt

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

Go no further than the chart below to understand the resentment and anger among the German taxpayers who are being asked to clean-up the “House Party” of fellow EU members.   The chart shows the housing bubbles of Ireland and Spain … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Europe’s Big Fail…

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

One lesson we have learned during the financial crisis is that a country’s banking system is an indirect liability of the sovereign.  That is, unless the government is willing to allow banks to fail and let the domestic financial sector … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

10-year Spike: 70 Bps, 14 days

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

The rapidity of the spike in long-term Treasury rates  is starting to raise some eyebrows. The yield on the 10-year bond has increased 70 bps in just 14 days. We have identified thirteen similar moves, where rates initially spiked 70 … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Fed Ownership of the U.S Treasury Curve

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

Here’s an interesting chart we threw together showing the Fed’s ownership of Treasury securities maturing in each year on the curve.  There are no bonds maturing in 2032-35 due to the temporary discontinuance of the 30-year earlier in the millennium, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments