Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Word for Today: Thucydides Trap

Posted on April 9, 2017 by macromon

The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for … Continue reading →

Posted in Geopolitical, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Sovereign Risk and Debt Crises

Posted on April 2, 2017 by macromon

We received some interesting pushback on our recent post, Is the U.S. Government Bankrupt?  Not Even Close. The purpose of the post was to remind readers to not ignore the left side of a government’s balance sheet — assets —  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Italy, Japan, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

Posted on April 2, 2017 by macromon

The spread widened by about 5 bps this past week.   Macron still holds a slight lead in first round polling over Le Pen.   France’s Polling Commission of false reports by Russian news agencies, France’s polling watchdog has issued a warning … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, France, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The Great Recession, Debt Growth, and Economic Policy

Posted on March 30, 2017 by macromon

Look no further than the latest Flow of Funds data from the Federal Reserve Board to get a snapshot of what’s happened in the U.S. economy during the new millennium. Because “credit is the mother’s milk of the economy” let’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged | 2 Comments

Yield Curve Flattens Back To Election Day Low

Posted on March 27, 2017 by macromon

The 10-year minus 2-year yield spread closed today at 1.12 basis points, back to the election day low.   All the steepening of the yield curve since the election day, widening out to 1.34 in December,  has vanished. We don’t think … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

A Few Thoughts On Why Health Care Went Down

Posted on March 25, 2017 by macromon

OK, comrades, let’s check our partisanship at the door and deal with some real analysis on the health care bill that just went down in flames. Here are a few of our thoughts on why the Trump/Ryan healthcare bill to … Continue reading →

Posted in Policy, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 16 Comments

COTD: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism

Posted on March 14, 2017 by macromon

On  FOMC eve we thought you’d find the following chart from the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report useful. The traditional discussion of monetary policy transmission emphasizes how changes in interest rates affect investment and consumption decisions.  These channels operate through … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

Posted on March 11, 2017 by macromon

The 10-year France-German bond spread widened a couple basis points this past week, probably due to a general repricing in sovereign bonds in the euro zone on the back of Mario Draghi’s perceived hawkish statements at the ECB meeting on … Continue reading →

Posted in Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, France, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

US Sector ETF Performance – March 10

Posted on March 11, 2017 by macromon
Posted in Sector ETF Peformance, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

Posted on March 5, 2017 by macromon

Notice on the chart the Oat-Bund spread coming in 25 bps in past week.  We are buyers of a French dip.  See here and here. An apparent threat by far-right leader Marine le Pen to punish state employees who “persecute” … Continue reading →

Posted in Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, France, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment