Next time you need to pick your ass up off the matt after dropping a tenth of a yard (or a fraction thereof ) to the market you can always come back these videos for motivation.
Please disregard if you have never had a losing trade.
What a story about the Jimmy V Award recipient, Rob Mendez, at the ESPYS last night. Awesome, stuff! Take the 10 minutes for both vids.
Trump is going to have to cave on some major issues as it appears China is gearing up to play hardball and is ready to rumble in the next round of negotiations. The Ministry of Commerce announced this morning the “talks will be held in the spirit of equality and mutual respect, and that China’s core issues must be resolved.”
But even the doves in the Trump administration seem to be growing increasingly pessimistic and lowering expectations.
Kudlow: U.S. may never reach trade deal with China
“When you get down to the last 10 percent, seven-yard line, it’s tough,” he added, referring to the negotiations. – Larry Kudlow, Politico
China is sensing that patience is running thin in America over Trump’s trade war.
While rural Americans were some of Trump’s biggest supporters, they are losing patience with a year long trade war that the Trump administration has reached an impasse without closing a deal with China. – Global Times
China can play the long game and Xi is also probably studying U.S. political polls, smells blood, and sees a president growing desperate for a deal. Moreover, the polls in the states that matter most for re-election continue to get worse for the President.
This story just broke tonight in the Washington Post,
The Trump administration is increasingly concerned about prospects for a trade deal with China, amid an unexpected reshuffling of the Chinese negotiating team and a lack of progress on core issues since the Group of 20 summit in Japan, according to U.S. officials and senior Republicans briefed on the discussions.
…“This has to be seen as a loss of confidence in Liu He and the desire of the leadership to bring in someone more politically savvy,” said Dennis Wilder, a former China analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. “I am sure his instructions are to get tougher with the U.S.” –Washington Post
Can Trump afford to cave now going into the campaign?
The only thing predictable about the President is he doesn’t like to appear weak. But, then again, he has the ability to convince himself that weakness is strength in the classic Orwellian sense.
North Korea
Go no further than taking a few steps north of the 38th parallel if you need confirmation. Bloomberg now reports that the Trump administration is mulling over suspending some sanctions on North Korea,
The U.S. is considering suspending some sanctions on North Korea for 12 to 18 months in exchange for a freeze on the country’s nuclear weapons program, the Yonhap News Agency reported. = Bloomberg
That is a big concession and far cry from total denuclearization,
President Trump said late Saturday that North Korea must “denuke” before any talks with the U.S.. – The Hill, March 4, 2018
It is clear, at least to us, politics is driving President Trump to make concessions in order to announce another Potemkin deal and declare victory. You can’t entirely rule out the same with a China deal but the President will likely be hammered from both sides for caving on trade.
Get Shorty
We are getting very close to sequel time, folks – Get Shorty 2.0 Everyone is lathered up over the Fed and very few realize the extreme valuations levels of the major macro metrics.
It’s also unprecedented for the Fed to begin cutting rates so close to an all-time high in the stock market. The exception was July 1995 but we don’t sense the economy is on the eve of another 1990’s economic and technological boom.
Give them a little more room to run, set your entry and stop levels, and place your finger on the trigger. Let the market then tell you when it’s time to fire.
Finally, if you need more comfort for the bear view, we advise never betting against the hedge fund great, Paul Singer.
This should be baked in, and even a bit disappointing, but, like my Australian Shepherd, markets like to run. Though hard to predict for how long.
Since our May meeting, however, these crosscurrents have reemerged, creating greater uncertainty. Apparent progress on trade turned to greater uncertainty, and our contacts in business and agriculture report heightened concerns over trade developments. Growth indicators from around the world have disappointed on net, raising concerns that weakness in the global economy will continue to affect the U.S. economy. These concerns may have contributed to the drop in business confidence in some recent surveys and may have started to show through to incoming data.
In our June meeting statement, we indicated that, in light of increased uncertainties about the economic outlook and muted inflation pressures, we would closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would act as appropriate to sustain the expansion. Many FOMC participants saw that the case for a somewhat more accommodative monetary policy had strengthened. Since then, based on incoming data and other developments, it appears that uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook. Inflation pressures remain muted. – Chairman Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
The Butterfly Effect Again
If not for Ross Perot’s decision to run for president as a third-party candidate in 1992, there would be no President Bill Clinton, no candidate Hillary, and probably no President Trump.
Politics is a process. There would be no LBJ without FDR. There wouldn’t be a Reagan revolution without Barry Goldwater. And it’s possible there wouldn’t be a Trump presidency without Perot. – Boston Globe
Perot won almost 20 percent of the popular vote in the 1992 presidential election, which the Bush family and many analysts believe much of his votes were siphoned from the incumbent, President George H.W. Bush. Bill Clinton won 43 percent of the popular vote, the second-lowest in modern presidential politics; second only to the Woodrow Wilson in 1912, who squared off with Teddy Roosevelt as the Bull Moose candidate and the incumbent, President William Howard Taft.
National Debt And NAFTA
During Perot’s candidacy, which was centrally focused on the increase in the national debt and his opposition to NAFTA, I was always baffled by his presentations about the increase in debt. He often compared the then-current debt stock with that of prior years without context, taking into account the growth in the size of the economy and inflation. It was perplexing to see charts such as the following presented on national television, as he, at the same time, pounded the table about “that giant sucking sound you hear is NAFTA taking away U.S. jobs.” The press rarely questioned his presentations.
Ironically, he wasn’t wrong on both counts.
Though he failed to normalize the debt data – he may or may not have understood the flawed analysis — the public debt has outpaced the growth of the economy and inflation and now stands in excess of 100 percent of GDP.
NAFTA did destroy good-paying jobs though others were created, which we believe made the trade treaty a net positive. The American government dropped the ball, however, looking the other way and abandoning those hurt by free-trade rather than investing in the human capital and social infrastructure to help those displaced adjust to the new globalized world. And here we are, the political mess that we find ourselves.
My Day With Ross
Let me share with you an incredible encounter I had with Ross Perot on Capitol Hill.
He was testifying against one of the many sovereign bailouts of the 1990s at a Senate Banking Committee hearing, which I was attending as the head of the emerging market bond trading desk at a Wall Street investment bank. Perot testified that the currency that was getting hammered and needed billions of dollars of support from the U.S. government wasn’t the only world currency in trouble:
“The Canadian dollar, the Italian lira, the Swedish krona… all are in trouble.”
After his testimony, he was holding a press conference in the hallway just adjacent to the committee hearing room. Surrounded by several cameras with the bright lights glaring, there was Ross holding court with at least ten reporters.
I walked to the back of the scrum and shouted out the question,
Mr. Perot, are you shorting the Italian lira?
I struck a raw nerve as all hell then broke loose. Perot was not a good trader and had lost money years earlier shorting Citibank believing the bank was insolvent due to a large “Third World” debt portfolio, which he believed would never be paid back. I just couldn’t help myself.
Mr. Perot’s face turned bright red as he shot back,
What!!! Absolutely not. Do you have any more trick questions?
He then stepped forward to confront me, getting right in my face like Billy Martin, the old manager of the Yankees, going after an umpire.
His face was less than six inches from mine. His head was shaking with anger and I could see the red of his eyes. He was kind of short and was looking straight up into my face. To say he was pissed off is a gross understatement.
“You boys up there on Wall Street sit in your air-conditioned offices on the 50th floor and wreak havoc down on these countries with your short-selling.”
As I was taking the wrath of Ross Perot, I noticed out of the corner of my eye all the cameras had turned on us filming our little encounter, which I feared would be on that night’s national news.
What was I really feeling at that moment? I couldn’t believe I had drawn blood from the famous H. Ross Perot.
Phone Home
In the cab (no Uber back then) on the way to the airport, I called back to the office to warn my boss about what he might see on the news later in the day and the blowback that may be coming our way from the bank’s public relations department.
I never did see the footage, but years later I was at a baseball game with a cousin, who lived in North Carolina at the time of the event. He told me how he turned on the nightly news years earlier only to witness Ross Perot ripping me a new a-hole.
R.I.P.
Well done, Ross, I still feel it. Never agreed with you on much but always admired and respected your fight. R.I.P.
We have been busy on a piece evaluating the U.S. economy under the first 29 months of the Trump administration. As I used to bark out selling programs as a young kid at Dodger Stadium, “You can’t tell the players without a program!” Similarly, you can’t measure the economy without the data.
Tweet and hype just don’t do it for us. Show me the money data, Jerry!
Does the economic data live up to the hype as the “greatest economy ever?” Stay tuned to find out. Our comprehensive and positive analysis should be posted by mid-week.
Here’s Another Appetizer
Nevertheless, we came across a very interesting find tonight when looking at the monthly year-on-year change in the value of the trade-weighted dollar index relative to the 3-month moving average of the monthly change in manufacturing payrolls since 2014. We found that when the change in the value of the dollar is lagged 9-months over the past 58 months, there is a -0.74 correlation with the 3-month moving average in the change in manufacturing payrolls. Rather surprising to find such a relatively tight fit.
Yes, we hear you: “introduce and add leads and lags to torture the data until it confesses.” Not our intentions and not looking for academic purity, however, just trying to find a better prediction model. That, our friends is the M.O. of predictive analytics and algorithmic trading.
Theoretically, it also makes sense as manufacturers do not change their hiring decisions based on short-term moves in demand, relative price changes, or competitiveness. A sustained move in the dollar for, say, over a one year period may incentivize management to change production and hiring decisions, which then takes months to ramp up.
The chart reflects the relationship. Note the change in the dollar (right-hand side) axis has been inverted. That is a move up in the red line is the 9 month lagged year-on-year weakening of the trade-weighted dollar index for that particular month.
Upshot
During the first 29 months of the Trump administration, the economy created 485k manufacturing jobs versus the 128k during the last 29 months of the Obama administration. However, during Obama’s last 29 months in office, the trade-weighted value of the dollar appreciated a massive 21.1 percent, a huge headwind for the manufacturing sector and the economy.
The same dollar-index has remained flattish, appreciating only 0.4 percent in Trump’s first 29 months, though it declined almost 10 percent his first year in office, creating a nice economic headwind during his honeymoon period.
Also, interesting to note the S&P500 has pretty much gone nowhere since the January 2018 peak, up only 4.1 percent even in the midst of the all the Sturm und Drang over the past 360 trading days, including a mini bear market from September to December and a 25 percent plus rally since Boxing Day, the day after Christmas.
3-month MA Manufacturing Payrolls Down From 25k to 8k per Month
The three-month moving average of the monthly change in manufacturing payrolls has fallen from 25k per month in November and December 2018 to just not 8k after Friday’s payroll report. We believe this, in part, is due to the lagged effect of last year’s dollar rebound.
Not also the level of the dollar does matter not just changes in or first derivatives, folks. We have done several posts on the secular overvaluation – as in very expensive – of the dollar against almost every world currency based on the IMF’s purchasing power parity model.
Political Fallout
If our model is robust, manufacturing employment should remain weak until January 2020 as the lagged effect of the 2018 dollar rebound plays itself out. We have no doubt President Trump will bring out the 2x4s to smack Jay Powell and the Fed upside the head in his effort to weaken the dollar.
We have no problem criticizing the Fed but the administration trying to stack or compromise the Fed’s independence? That is a dangerous proposition. As Joe, the only Joe (x/ maybe #5) once said, “confidence is a fragile thing,” especially with respect to the money demand function.
Many of my friends maintain there is a major global dollar shortage taking place (we have to think and research it more before weighing in) and is not to about to abate anytime soon. If that’s the case, don’t expect the U.S. manufacturing sector or employment to rebound with gusto anytime soon. This will no doubt have major political fallout in those all-important rust belt electoral college states. We sense President Trump senses that.
How ironic would it be if Larry Kudlow’s “King Dollar” puts him out of job in November 2020.
Have a great Independence Day, folks! Enjoy the beach, BBQ, and fireworks but let us never, ever forget what we celebrate.
E pluribus unum over and out!
IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen United States of America
hen in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.
He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their Public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected, whereby the Legislative Powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary Powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil Power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefit of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation, and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & Perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.
We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these united Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States, that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. — And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.
New Hampshire:
Josiah Bartlett, William Whipple, Matthew Thornton
Massachusetts:
John Hancock, Samuel Adams, John Adams, Robert Treat Paine, Elbridge Gerry
Rhode Island:
Stephen Hopkins, William Ellery
Connecticut:
Roger Sherman, Samuel Huntington, William Williams, Oliver Wolcott
New York:
William Floyd, Philip Livingston, Francis Lewis, Lewis Morris
New Jersey:
Richard Stockton, John Witherspoon, Francis Hopkinson, John Hart, Abraham Clark
Pennsylvania:
Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer, James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross
Delaware:
Caesar Rodney, George Read, Thomas McKean
Maryland:
Samuel Chase, William Paca, Thomas Stone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton
Virginia:
George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton
North Carolina:
William Hooper, Joseph Hewes, John Penn
South Carolina:
Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., Thomas Lynch, Jr., Arthur Middleton
Georgia:
Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, George Walton
Here’s a heads up for Friday’s employment number before we hit the beach: 1) Nonfarm payroll expectations; 2) today’s ADP release, and 3) commentary by Mark Zandi.
QOTD: Quote of the day
Call me a traditionalist, a conservative, or what you will but I’m with Erma on this one.
Don’t know if you caught the Democratic debate the other night, which featured Bernie and Joe, who could be the grandfathers of some of the younger candidates that were on stage, but it also confirmed the arrival of what we have been writing about for years, the Clash of Generations.
Congressman Eric Swalwell was one the young Democrats on stage with Bernie and Uncle Joe last week.
If you missed this Atlantic piece, it is definitely a must-read,
Money Quotes:
In a variety of different areas, the Baby Boom generation created, advanced, or preserved policies that made American institutions less dynamic. In a recent report for the American Enterprise Institute, I looked at issues including housing, work rules, higher education, law enforcement, and public budgeting, and found a consistent pattern: The political ascendancy of the Boomers brought with it tightening control and stricter regulation, making it harder to succeed in America. This lack of dynamism largely hasn’t hurt Boomers, but the mistakes of the past are fast becoming a crisis for younger Americans.
…Boomers didn’t only make rules that nudge young people out of homeownership. They also made new rules restricting young people’s employment. Laws and rules requiring workers to have special licenses, degrees, or certificates to work have proliferated over the past few decades. And while much of this rise came before Boomers were politically active, instead of reversing the trend, they extended it.
...The most glaring example of this growth in regulation and control is also the easiest one to pin on Baby Boomers: the incredible rise in incarceration rates. Even though murder rates are today at the same levels they were in the 1950s, the imprisoned share of the population is higher in America than in any country other than North Korea. We imprison a larger share of the population than authoritarian countries such as Turkmenistan and China.
…Even young Americans today who are free from prison are nonetheless in bondage to debt—sometimes their own debt, in the form of rapidly growing student loans or personal and credit-card loans. But on a larger scale, the problems of entitlements, pensions, Social Security, Medicare, and federal, state, and local debt are becoming more severe all the time. Already, in places such as Detroit, Illinois, and Puerto Rico, where political rules make flexible solutions hard and the population is aging very quickly, massive debt restructurings loom large. But around the country, the pressures of long-term obligations will grow.
…Making these payments will require fiscal austerity, through either higher taxes or lower alternative spending. Younger Americans will bear the burdens of the Baby Boomer generation, whether in smaller take-home pay or more potholes and worse schools.
Furthermore, the basic demographic balance sheet is getting worse all the time, increasing the relative burden on young people. Working-age Americans are dying off in alarming numbers.
[Take a minute and study the above chart. Probably some of the saddest data I have ever seen. These data are often overlooked and ignored from the comfort of the gated retirement communities.]
…The odds of a 32-year-old dying have risen by 24 percent in the past five years, even as death rates among older Americans are about stable. Baby Boomers are living longer even as the workers who pay for their pensions are dying from an epidemic of drug overdose, suicide, car accidents, and violence.
…If leaders in business, education, and politics want to solve these problems, they can. Whether the gerontocracy in charge today wants solutions may be another question altogether. – The Atlantic, June 24th
Our Warning In July 2011
We posted the following in The Clash of Generations way back in July 2011,
How long before the young realize they’ve had their future stolen from them by the baby boomers? The answer to this question will determine your defined benefit pension, social security and medicare benefits. Reality meets [the boomers] at sunset. – GMM, July 2011
Now. They are woke.
We also exhorted boomers in an even earlier post to, as a metaphor, give up their country clubs for muni golf courses in order to free up resources and give the young a fighting chance. It is a social investment for the boomers, after all, the younger generations will determine the fate of their underfunded pensions, social security, and medicare programs
Monetization Coming
We do think the young will choose monetization to finance the shortfalls and debts the boomers have bequeathed them as the case gains political credibility through the rise of Modern Monetary Theory.
A form of a “People’s QE” is inevitable, in our opinion, and that is why we totally disagree about the end game with the deflationistas, who, suffer from recency bias and have probably never spent a day, much less a week, in an economy suffering from hyperinflation.
Zero interest rates for an extended period (as in five and ten-year slogs, ala Japan)? Not U.S. market rates, folks, if there are any remaining, which is questionable, we do concede.
America is not a net saver, has been dependent on foreign savings to finance is public and private deficits for years, and its net international investment position (NIIP) has crossed over the $10 trillion deficit mark in Q2 2019.
This compares to NIIP surpluses in Japan and Germany of around $4 and $2 trillion, respectively.
Contemplate for a moment the long-term consequences of the above chart for, say, the exchange value of the U.S. dollar.
Hayek May Be Prescient Yet
Frederick Hayek understood demographics and the aging population would be at the mercy and charity of the young,
In 1960, Friedrich Hayek predicted in The Constitution of Liberty “that most of those who will retire at the end of the century will be dependent on the charity of the younger generation. And ultimately not morals but the fact that the young supply the police and the army will decide the issue: concentration camps for the aged unable to maintain themselves are likely to be the fate of an old generation whose income is entirely dependent on coercing the young.” It hasn’t turned out that way at all—a salutary warning that it is much easier to identify generational conflicts of interest than to anticipate correctly the political form they will take. – The Coming Generation War, The Atlantic
Just some more potential political conflict to stuff in your pipe and smoke, folks.
Not sure if the younger gens will wrestle the power torch from the gerontocracy in 2020 but they will someday.
Boomers best be kind to the Millenials, X, Y, Z, and Alpha generations.
They are woke, not happy, and left of the salad fork.
Global Macro Monitor 