Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

Another Blast From The Past (BFTP).  Hard to believe this was seven years ago.

Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

St. Patrick, Ireland, St. Patrick’s Day. Simple, right? The man wasn’t even Irish! He was actually born in Britain around the turn of the 4th century. At 16 years old, Irish raiders captured him in the midst of an attack on his family’s estate. The raiders then took him to Ireland and held him captive for six years. After escaping, he went back to England for religious training and was sent back to Ireland many years later as a missionary. St. Patrick was actually born Maewyn Succat, according to legend; he changed his name to Patricius, or Patrick, which derives from the Latin term for “father figure,” when he became a priest.  – Time

The Irish Comeback

Ireland has come a long way since this post, which was just after the European debt crisis.  The government just placed €1.03 billion of 10-year bonds in mid-February at a stunning yield of 0.85 percent.  The auction had a bid-to-cover of 2.24.

Yeah, got it, distorted due to ECB asset-buying program.  But still well below the Euro periphery bond yields.

Irealand

Though the Irish economy is slowing and there is much uncertainty around Brexit, still it’s been one helluva comeback,  and the Irish are a resilient bunch, now positioning themselves with U.S. and Canadian companies as the “only English-speaking common-law country in the whole of the European Union.”

Me “finks [sic]” part of the success was thumbing their nose and ignoring the advice and dictates of the Eurocrats in Brussels.

Plus, Ireland still has Bono and U2, Andrea and the rest of the Corrs, and the many, if not all the great people of Ireland, we love so much,  including my late grandmother and her side of the family.   That is the upside of being an American.  We are all mutts and can claim to be citizens of many cultures.  Don’t think POUTS has got the memo quite yet.

Rory

How great would be to see an Irishman win the PGA’s coveted Players Championship on St. Paddy’s Day?   Rory tees it up in today’s final round one back.

Getting long Rory as I write.  Pour me one in Dublin and Hollywood, CD in the wee hours tomorrow to celebrate!   You heard it here first.  Unleash the Leprechauns!

Rory

Source:  Golf Digest

 

Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

Originally Posted on 

In case you’re wondering,  Maweyn Succat was St. Patrick’s real name and he wasn’t even Irish!.   Click here for some great background and history of St. Patrick’s Day.

Go Paddy, Rory, Graeme, and Darren!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!  Not too many green beers, folks!

By the way, there has been one huge bond rally in Ireland over the past year.

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Sector ETF Performance – March 15

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ETF_YTD

 

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Global Risk Monitor – March 15

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QOTD: Turkey/Eagle Flight Convergence During QE

QOTD = Quote of the Day

Central banks have inflated the entire market: it has been impossible to pick winners. – FT

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Ten Plus Plus Great Weekend Reads – March 15

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Markets

  • Active investors are depressed, but not depressed enough – FT

Over his long and illustrious career, Mr Buffett has beaten the market handily, but over the past 10 years, the return of Berkshire Hathaway shares is 274 per cent. Which looks impressive until you consider the S&P 500 has returned 273 per cent.  – FT

  • Liquidity is the scary absentee in stocks’ rebound – FT

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The Flowless Stock Recovery

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Economics

  • You Never Know When A Recession Will Sneak Up On You – NY Times
  • Manufacturing Pullback Flashes Signs of Economic Slowdown – WSJ

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  • Ballooning US debt piles put investors on guard – FT
  • Tail Risk: Global debt – when is the day of reckoning? – FT
  • Trump’s Twin Deficits Are Exploding – Forbes

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Companies

  • Superstar companies lose their lustre – FT
  • How Sears Lost the American Shopper – WSJ

EM

Perhaps the most remarkable change since the crises of the 1990s has come in the way emerging-market countries finance their debt. Governments now borrow much more in their own currencies than in foreign ones, making them less vulnerable to runs and currency crises. But risks remain.  – Agustin Carstens, FA

Geopolitics

  • Is America Becoming Trump’s Banana Republic? – New Yorker
  • “If Beto Is The Nominee, Texas Would Be In Play”:  Why Donald Trump Is Obsessed With O’Rourke –  Vanity Fair
  • How Trump’s Brand of Grievance Politics Roiled a Pennsylvania Campaign – NY Times
  • Can the wisdom of the crowd predict a second EU referendum? – LSE
  • Four possible outcomes of the UK’s request for a Brexit delay – FT
  • North Korea threatens to end US talks and restart nuclear tests – FT

Tech

Most Clueless Article Of The Week 

  • The Fed Is a Threat to Growth, Stephen MooreWSJ

Bonus

  • The Hedge Fund Manager Who Bucked The Trend And Became A Billionaire – Forbes
  • A Rare Find In Silicon Valley: A New Woman Billionaire In Tech – Forbes
  • ‘Billions,’ ‘Succession’ and the Making of Wealth Porn – NY Times
  • Mercury Is in Retrograde. Don’t Be Alarmed – NY Times
  • Resilience: How Women Use Obstacles to Fuel Their Success – WSJ
  • How cities can heal themselves – FT
  • Admissions scandal hits ‘university of spoiled children (USC)’ – FT
  • The Big Data Behind the NBA’s Next Big Thing – WSJ
  • Santa Anita bans race day drugs after another horse dies – LA Times

 

What neuroscience has to do with nationalism, Fareed Zakaria

The is a must view, folks.   Here is the link to the article

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Click here to view video

 

 

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Careful When Locking Horns

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QOTD: Just The Facts Ma’am

QOTD:  Quote of the Day

Judge Jackson

 

Court is one of those places where facts still matter – Judge Amy Berman Jackson,  March 13, 2019

Why do we believe Judge Jackson’s quote will be carved in stone, though the words may live in infamy?   Thank goodness, at least in her court, words and facts still have meaning.

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On This Day In History – March 14

Birthdays

  • 1879 Albert Einstein, German-born theoretical physicist and Nobel laureate (theory of relativity), born in Ulm, German Empire (d. 1955)

TIH_Mar14_Einstein

  • 1958 Danny Meyer, American restaurateur (Shake Shack, Union Square Cafe), born in St. Louis, Missouri
  • 1988 Stephen Curry, American basketball guard (NBA MVP 2015-16 Golden State Warriors), born in Akron, Ohio

Events

  • 1592 “Ultimate Pi day”: on this day at 6.53am is the largest correspondence between calendar dates and significant digits of pi, since the introduction of the Julian calendar (3.141592653)

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  • 1644 England grants patent for Providence Plantations (now Rhode Island)
  • 1794 Eli Whitney patents the cotton gin machine revolutionizing the cotton industry in the southern US states
  • 1801 Henry Addington becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after his friend William Pitt the Younger resigns after being unable to persuade King George III of the need for Catholic Emancipation
  • 1889 German Ferdinand von Zeppelin patents his “Navigable Balloon”

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  • 1900 US currency goes on gold standard after Congress passes the Currency Act
  • 1904 In a landmark case, Northern Securities Company v United States, the US Supreme Court finds the company has violated the Sherman Anti-Trust Act; first case in T. Roosevelt’s ‘trust-busting’ campaign
  • 1907 By Presidential order, Japanese laborers are excluded from entering the USA
  • 1913 John D. Rockefeller gives $100 million [$2.533 billion in 2019 dollars] to Rockefeller Foundation

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  • 1923 US President Warren G. Harding becomes 1st president to pay taxes
  • 1958 South Africa’s government prohibits the African National Congress
  • 1964 Dallas, Texas; Jack Ruby sentenced to death for Lee Harvey Oswald’s murder
  • 1971 The Rolling Stones leave England for France to escape taxes
  • 1973 Future US senator John McCain is released after spending over five years in a North Vietnamese prisoner of war camp

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  • 1983 OPEC cut oil prices for 1st time in 23 years
  • 1990 Mikhail Gorbachev becomes president of the Soviet Congress
  • 2013 Xi Jinping is named as the new President of the People’s Republic of China

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  • 2017 World’s oldest golf club Muirfield in Scotland, votes to admit women as members for 1st time in 273 years
  • 2018 NASA twin study finds that Scott Kelly is no longer identical to his twin brother after one year in space, 7% of his genes altered
  • 2018 Angela Merkel sworn in for fourth term as German Chancellor, head of a coalition government, 171 days after the general election
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More On Brexit…

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Question of the Day: British Parliament

I am listening to the live debate in the House of Commons about the vote, which just took place voting down a “no-deal Brexit,”  321-278, close enough to make us a little nervous.  Some MPs are up in arms that the vote is “indicative” and not policy.

Does the will of the House trump the will of the people? – MP of British House of Commons

We ask you again, are you surprised that in our post-Truth world we live that all things are indicative, nothing matters, nothing is binding, alternative facts, fake news, and now fake athletes?

You can now redefine your child, for a $400K bribe, as a football placekicker, and get him into Stanford.  Man, I smell pitchforks on this one!  AOC will be on the warpath.

Article 50 Extension Vote Tomorrow

The House of Commons votes tomorrow on extending the Article 50 March 29th deadline to leave the EU.

You know where we stand.

Big buyers of cable (pound/dollar) all year,  as we believe the MPs will eventually have to take this debate to the people, which the remainers should win overwhelmingly.    Cable up almost 2 percent today and closing in on its 6-month high.   The pound is trading like an EM currency, now up almost 5 percent for the year, which is causing the export-heavy FSTE to significantly lag DM stock markets year-to-date.

Pound

Coming “Summer Political Discontent?”

There will be some political instability into a second referendum vote as the Brexiteers take to the street.  Depending on how things shape up with President Trump’s legal troubles,  we may be moving into a transatlantic  “summer of discontent,” where the U.K. and U.S. experience a bout of political and social instability.

Hey, we are always nervous and on the lookout for off-the-radar tail events.

Buy the French British dip in cable, and keep the above on your radar.

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