Remember the war between Honduras and El Salvador that, in part, started over a World Cup qualifier? The “Football War” or “100 Hour War.”
Feel bad for Russian player, Mario Fernandes, who missed the entire goal during the shootout. Hold your head high, my brother, you got the Russian team into the shootout with your header in late overtime, and, most important, you were in the arena!
It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat. – President Theodore Roosevelt, Paris – April 23, 1910
Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev (right) is not amused by the celebration by Croatian president Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović (left in red & white) #RUS#CRO#WorldCuppic.twitter.com/gn0K1FX6Sd
Unqualified term “war”? Tell us it ain’t so, Ray Dalio!
Remember the Great War with Japan started with trade tensions in response to the country’s agression in Manchuria, among other regions,
Tokyo and Washington negotiated for months leading up to the Pearl Harbor attack, without success. While the United States hoped embargoes on oil and other key goods would lead Japan would halt its expansionism, the sanctions and other penalties actually convinced Japan to stand its ground, and stirred up the anger of its people against continued Western interference in Asian affairs. – History.com
Mark this day on your calendar, folks, we have now entered a period of nonlinear dynamics, and who knows how this will end.
Count us in as having zero confidence and support for the buffoonery of the so-called “Art of the Deal”, a total farce, in our opinion. Washington’s cluelessness risks a major global economic and political disruption.
Nations can’t bully others into submission unless supported by the vast majority of the international community. These deals have to be done in a rules based framework, and not willy-nilly driven by implulse with 5 A.M. tweets.
The U.S. is becoming increasingly isolated, and now viewed as the bad guys. In our Orwellian world, “America First” will have a tragic and painful ending for the majority of Americans. America First sounds good on paper, or as 10-second political sound bite, but will likely end as America Last.
James Harris Simons has been described as “the world’s smartest billionaire”, amassing a fortune through the clever use of mathematics and computers. He is now a renowned philanthropist.
Fireworks start tomorrow with the first shots are fired in the trade war. The Trump administration has painted itself into a corner and the only way out is a unilateral capitulation on his part.
EM
Forget about. Easy money days are over and the printing presses have been turned off.
A new crisis is brewing and something is about to break. That will be the time to think about getting long. Until then, trade ’em with rentals.
Today’s FOMC minutes release illustrates labor shortages are global in the advanced economies (AE).
Contacts in several Districts reported difficulties finding qualified workers, and, in some cases, firms were coping with labor shortages by increasing salaries and benefits in order to attract or retain workers. Other business contacts facing labor shortages were responding by increasing training for less-qualified workers or by investing in automation. – FOMC minutes
The structural issues, such as aging populations, are finally catching up and overwhelming cyclical factors, which have traditionally been “fixed” by monetary policy, and to some extent, fiscal policy.
Time for some economic overhaul and structural reform. Good luck with that given our economically ignorant pols.
Japan
Nowhere is it more an issue than in Japan. ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and QE won’t create more babies, at least, we don’t believe so!
Japan is making a big bet on robots to increase productivity in order to offset the perilous effects of a rapidly aging population and shrinking labor force.
Looming US import tariffs on some of the hottest gadgets among younger consumers, from vaporisers to electric scooters and ‘smart home’ devices, threaten to drive up prices
We’ve got some problems as we backslide into tribalism and trust in some of our institutions has diminished, but we will get through this.
The Melting Pot
Spent last night drinking too many beers with an American from Senegal and one from Germany. Both had strong accents. We discussed everything to what it is like to be a black man in America to how the German nation of such well educated and “civilized” people were duped into following Hitler. These are the discussions we need to have as Americans, folks.
The name of Sebastopol first came into use in the late 1850s as a result of a prolonged and lively fistfight in the newly formed town. It was likened to the long British siege of the Russian seaport of Sevastopol during the then-raging Crimean War.
Britain, France, Sardinia, and Turkey fought Russia in this war, one of the first wars to be directly reported by journalists and photographers. The Crimean War was also the origin of improved medical care of the wounded, primarily due to the efforts of Florence Nightingale, who formed a nursing corps to care for wounded British soldiers. Evidently, many Americans in the west sympathized more for the Russian than for the British cause as there were at one time four other Sebastopol’s in California; one in Napa County, renamed Yountville, one each in Tulare, Sacramento, and Nevada counties.
I thought what a great country. Our diversity, global heritage and history binds us together and makes us strong.
Free Trade and 4th of July
Just a side note on why we’re free traders.
There would be less flags flying today without free trade as the costs of American flags would be prohibitively expensive for many American families (see #16)
Forget about the fireworks show tonight if not for trade (see #15)
I don’t feel ripped off by China as I see the Red, White, and Blue waving around our neighborhood and watch the sky flowers ignite in tonight’s sky, even if we added to the bilateral trade deficit with China today.
Comparative advantage. It is the very reason why trade between people, communities, states, and nations exist. I am very happy to buy grapes from Chile at the grocery store during our winter months rather than go without.
Thank goodness for free trade. The majority of us are so much better off with trade even if it is sometimes not perfectly “fair” or “reciprocal.” Don’t get us wrong, we are all for negotiating for better deals for the country, but a trade deal takes two sides to agree.
And let us not forget to take care of the losers of trade.
The U.S. government spends almost 7x the annual TAA budget on just one new ship ($4 billion) from its Zumwalt destroyer class, which, by the way, costs $800,000 per round to fire, and can stunningly hit targets 80 miles away.
Priorities, anyone? Just askin’.
Now for some interesting factoids about this great holiday
Congress made Independence Day an official unpaid holiday for federal employees in 1870. In 1938, Congress changed Independence Day to a paid federal holiday.
Only John Hancock actually signed the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776. All the others signed later.
The Declaration of Independence was signed by 56 men from 13 colonies.
The average age of the Signers of the Declaration of Independence was 45. The youngest was Thomas Lynch, Jr (27) of South Carolina. The oldest delegate was Benjamin Franklin (70) of Pennsylvania. The lead author of The Declaration, Thomas Jefferson, was 33.
One out of eight signers of the Declaration of Independence were educated at Harvard (7 total).
The only two signers of the Declaration of Independence who later served as President of the United States were John Adams and Thomas Jefferson.
The stars on the original American flag were in a circle so all the Colonies would appear equal.
The first Independence Day celebration took place in Philadelphia on July 8, 1776. This was also the day that the Declaration of Independence was first read in public after people were summoned by the ringing of the Liberty Bell.
The White House held its first 4th July party in 1801.
President John Adams, Thomas Jefferson and James Monroe all died on the Fourth. Adams and Jefferson (both signed the Declaration) died on the same day within hours of each other in 1826.
Benjamin Franklin proposed the turkey as the national bird but was overruled by John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, who recommended the bald eagle.
In 1776, there were 2.5 million people living in the new nation. Today the population of the U.S.A. is 316 million.
Fifty-nine places in the U.S. contain the word “liberty” in the name. Pennsylvania, with 11, has more of these places than any other state. Of the 59 places nationwide containing “liberty” in the name, four are counties: Liberty County, Ga. (65,471), Liberty County, Fla. (8,276), Liberty County, Mont. (2,392) and Liberty County, Texas (76,571).
The most common patriotic-sounding word used within place names is “union” with 136. Pennsylvania, with 33, has more of these places than any other state. Other words most commonly used in place names are Washington (127), Franklin (118), Jackson (96) and Lincoln (95)
Fireworks are part of the tradition of celebrating this national holiday. The U.S. imported $227.3 million worth of fireworks from China in 2012. U.S. exports of fireworks, by comparison, came to just $11.7 million in 2012, with Israel purchasing more than any other country ($2.5 million).
In 2012, vast majority of imported U.S. flags ($3.6 million) was made in China.
Barbecue is also big on Independence Day. Approximately 150 million hot dogs and 700 million pounds of chicken are consumed on this day.
Every 4th of July the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia is tapped (not actually rung) thirteen times in honor of the original thirteen colonies.
Traditions place the origins of “Yankee Doodle” as a pre-Revolutionary War song originally sung by British military officers to mock the disheveled, disorganized colonial “Yankees” with whom they served in the French and Indian War. It is believed that the tune comes from the nursery rhyme Lucy Locket. One version of the Yankee Doodle lyrics is “generally attributed” to Doctor Richard Shuckburgh,a British Army surgeon. According to one story, Shuckburgh wrote the song after seeing the appearance of Colonial troops under Colonel Thomas Fitch, V, the son of Connecticut Governor Thomas Fitch.[2]
The tune of the National Anthem was originally used by an English drinking song called “to Anacreon in Heaven.” The words have nothing to do with consumption of alcohol but the “melody that Francis Key had in mind when he wrote those words did originate decades earlier as the melody for a song praise of wine.” http://www.colonialmusic.org/Resource/Anacreon.htm
Money quote from video: 
Global Macro Monitor 