Week in Review

Posted on September 18, 2011 by macromon



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Global Trend Indicators

Posted on September 18, 2011 by macromon




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Merkel Fading

Posted on September 18, 2011 by macromon

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Robert Prechter: “Junk bond prices are going to go to zero.”

Posted on September 17, 2011 by macromon

His predictions, advice and timing have always been tough to act and trade on and, like all of us, is wrong a lot.  But here’s the latest to feed your inner macro bear.  Roarrrrr!!

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Charts of the Day: Asian-Americans Rising

Posted on September 17, 2011 by macromon

Here’s a couple  interesting charts from the BLS, which are sure to raise some eyebrows.  We’d be careful about jumping to snap and simplistic conclusions about the data.  There are many complex factors that determine these outcomes, not the least of which, is the sector in which one works.    Nevertheless, the growing inequalities, for whatever reason, is a big part of the increasing social angst.  This doesn’t even touch on the intergenerational problems we have written about and New York mayor Michael Bloomberg warned about yesterday.

In 2010, median usual weekly earnings of Asian men ($1,408) and White men ($1,273) working full time in management, professional, and related occupations (the highest paying major occupation group) were well above the earnings of Hispanic men ($1,002) and Black men ($957) in the same occupation group.

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The Real Oktoberfest – € 9 per liter

Posted on September 17, 2011 by macromon

As the markets prepare for their Oktoberfest, which usually marks a seasonal low and the beginning of the traditional year-end rally, here is the real deal, folks!.   Oktoberfest opened in Munich with the city’s mayor tapping the first keg.   This year’s ‘fest must be especially quenching to the Germans as they tap the kegs after being tapped all year for funds to shore up the European periphery.  Check out the stampede.  Looks like WalMart shoppers on Black Friday in the America.  Our German friends really know how to live!

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Apple Closes Over $400

Posted on September 16, 2011 by macromon

Apple closed over $400 for only the second time in history.   The current market rally seems to be getting narrower and narrower with the large cap techs, such as Apple,  leading the way.  The stock, in our opinion, has the wind behind it to take out the all-time high, which is less than $5.00 above the close.

Gold fell hard overnight, found support at around 1760, and rallied almost $50 from its lows.   One defining characteristic of the current market is time compression.   What used to take weeks and months now happens in hours, if not seconds.   It’s gotta be the robots and algo trading, no?  Do you feel a little like the modern day version of  John Henry, The Steel Driving Man or was that John Henry, The Currency Driving Man?

We’re staying long and trading a limited number of stocks, special situations, while trying to hedge out/trade the macro.    How’s that working out for us, Dr. Phil asks?  Extremely difficult, but thankful, at least, we’re not short Goodrich.  Check out that nutcracker in the after hours.

Have a great weekend!

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Angry Birds in China

Posted on September 16, 2011 by macromon

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EcoFin Meets in Poland

Posted on September 16, 2011 by macromon

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Apple Breaks Out, Gold Breaks Support

Posted on September 15, 2011 by macromon

A quick update to our recent posts on Apple and gold.   Apple has broken out of its bullish pennant formation and looks poised to take out the July 26th all time high of $404.50.  This is a chip shot from current levels and could happen with a one day move.

On the other side, gold broke support at 1,793 and now looks ready to test the 1,750 level.  We noted the 1,700 level is major support and also the 50% retracement of the parabolic move which began in July.  This, we said, is where “the river meets the waterfall” and where a correction could really accelerate.   Longer term we like gold as the major central banks remain accommodative, but the trade is super crowded and it needs some time to consolidate and shake out the weak hands.   Always note our posts are not recommendations and, at best, our best guesses.   Nothing more.

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