Global Risk Montior: Week in Review – June 13

Posted on June 14, 2025 by macromon

This week presented a paradox that seasoned portfolio and hedge fund managers will recognize immediately: risk is rising, but price action remains oddly composed. With geopolitical tensions escalating in the Middle East, oil surging, and inflation data surprising to the downside, equity markets continued trading with a deceptive calm, masking deeper structural vulnerabilities. Behind the headlines, the mechanics of the market tell a more precarious story: asset managers appear to be increasingly short of their benchmarks, systematic and discretionary shorts remain crowded, and positioning seems light after months of defensive hedging. As we approach Monday’s open, it may serve as a key inflection point where positioning, policy, and geopolitical risk converge.  Nevertheless, beneath it all, the AI trade remains as the secular theme and trend underlying driver of markets, in our opinion.  

Geopolitics and Risk Sentiment: Asset Markets Shrug—for Now
Despite Israel’s direct military strike on Iranian nuclear sites and Iran’s retaliatory missile fire, financial markets barely flinched. Crude oil, however, jumped over 7% on Friday, settling at a four-month high, and gold briefly rallied. However, equity markets, including the S&P 500 (-0.39% for the week) and Nasdaq (-0.63%), showed minimal reaction. However, as Iran’s missiles fell on Tel Aviv late in Friday’s trading session, equities began to wobble with the S&P 500 closing below the key 6,000 level.  According to Barron’s, even traditional risk havens such as the dollar and Treasurys saw muted inflows. The message? Investors are treating the latest Middle East clash as a headline risk rather than a macro driver, at least for now.

This complacency belies the risk of escalation. A disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices beyond $120 a barrel, which would sharply reprice inflation expectations and destabilize rate outlooks. Strategists from Barclays and T. Rowe Price caution that the current market narrative, pricing in disinflation and Fed cuts, is vulnerable to oil-induced shocks.

Positioning Dynamics: Short Exposure at the Core
The price action doesn’t reflect fear, but it does reflect fragility. Major institutional portfolios remain underexposed to equities. According to data from Manulife and Schwab, large active managers are significantly short their benchmarks, with many hedge funds maintaining net short exposures. Systematic funds, having reduced risk throughout Q2, are underweight equities by the widest margin since 2022.

That leaves markets highly sensitive to squeezes and reactive flows. Friday’s bounce in oil and slight bid in equities may not reflect conviction, but rather a short-covering reflex. Monday’s open becomes the critical test: if geopolitical risk deepens or oil pushes higher, the pain trade could swing in either direction, either a risk-off cascade from re-leveraged volatility funds or a violent rally if shorts are forced to unwind into low liquidity.

Macro Fundamentals: Mixed, Not Assuring
CPI and PPI both came in below expectations, offering temporary comfort. Core CPI rose just 0.1% MoM and 2.8% YoY, reviving bets on Fed rate cuts later in 2025. FOMC members are likely to stay cautious, however, particularly given the risk of second-round inflation effects from energy. Powell’s upcoming press conference and the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections will likely reinforce the narrative of “higher for longer with optionality,” keeping duration markets on edge.  The market is pricing in a 99% probability the Fed does nothing at this week’s FOMC.

Treasury yields fell through most of the week, but rose Friday as the oil spike unsettled rate expectations. Jamie Dimon’s warning that the U.S. bond market is on track to “crack” under the weight of rising debt should not be dismissed. With the deficit now structurally over $1.5 trillion, and tax policy still used as a blunt political tool, the bond market’s patience is thinning.

Policy and Political Volatility: Structural Risk Rising
Behind the immediate headlines, a more concerning trend is reemerging: the growing influence of erratic policy as a macro variable. Trump’s tariff and trade threats, including a fresh proposal to tax EU goods at 50% and Apple devices at 25%, have reignited fears of supply chain disruptions. His past business tactics, such as his aggressive yet self-defeating maneuvering in the USFL, echo today’s approach to policy: short-term vanity wins and optics at the expense of long-term system coherence.

Markets may not be pricing it yet, but these moves risk undermining global trade architecture and investor confidence. Meanwhile, China’s rare-earth export cap and renewed nationalism further complicate the landscape for U.S. manufacturers and multinationals.

Monday as the Moment of Truth
Markets appear calm on the surface, but they are floating on unstable fundamentals and fragile positioning. Shorts are heavy, benchmark underweights are deep, and sentiment remains skeptical. With geopolitical tension simmering, bond market fragility rising, and oil threatening to re-anchor inflation expectations, Monday’s open will be a litmus test. Will shorts cover? Will funds re-risk? Or will volatility return with a vengeance?

For portfolio and hedge fund managers, the message is clear: stay nimble, manage tail risk, and prepare for binary market moves. The surface may look still—but the undercurrent is anything but.

Markets

U.S. Market Analysis

  • Equity markets finished modestly lower amid heightened geopolitical tensions and cautious Fed commentary, with the S&P 500 down 0.39% for the week.

  • The Nasdaq and mega-cap tech stocks showed resilience, while small-cap and cyclical sectors underperformed amid volatility in rates and oil.

  • Positioning remains light and defensive; large institutional asset managers continue to trail their benchmarks, and hedge fund net exposure is well below historical averages.

  • Monday’s open is being closely watched as a potential inflection point, given persistent short interest and asymmetric risks tied to geopolitical news flow.

Global Market Analysis

  • Global equities held steady despite Israel-Iran missile exchanges, suggesting investors currently view the conflict as localized and contained.

  • European markets outperformed slightly, supported by improving services PMIs and relief from falling inflation.

  • Asian markets were mixed, with Chinese equities supported by continued stimulus measures, though investor sentiment remains fragile amid weak industrial and retail data.

  • Oil-sensitive markets showed some resilience following crude’s rally on fears of Middle East supply disruption.

Economics

U.S. Economic Overview

  • May inflation data showed core CPI and PPI readings below expectations, reinforcing market hopes for a Fed pivot later this year.

  • Jobless claims rose modestly, and consumer sentiment dipped, reflecting cautious household sentiment as inflation moderates but wage growth slows.

  • Treasury yields declined on the week, driven by soft inflation and dovish rate expectations, though they spiked on Friday following an oil-driven risk-off move.

  • The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at the June meeting, with markets now pricing in nearly two 25-basis-point cuts by year-end.

Global Economic Overview

  • Eurozone industrial production rebounded modestly, but weakness in manufacturing continues to weigh on broader economic growth.

  • Japan’s economy shows signs of softening as consumer spending stalls and inflation expectations remain elevated.

  • China imposed rare-earth export restrictions while reporting a contraction in exports, signaling both economic pressure and strategic posturing.

  • Oil price volatility remains a key macro risk, particularly for net importers and emerging markets, with Brent crude nearing $85/barrel.

Week Ahead

Key U.S. & Global Events

  • The FOMC decision and Powell’s press conference will be the central focus, especially regarding the tone on inflation risk and growth outlook.

  • G7 leaders will meet to discuss geopolitical tensions and trade realignment in response to China’s export restrictions and the evolving Middle East conflict.

  • U.S. retail sales and industrial production reports will offer further clarity on economic momentum entering Q3.

  • Monitoring for any escalation in Middle East hostilities or new U.S. tariff announcements will be critical to assessing near-term volatility.

Upcoming Economic Data

  • Tuesday: U.S. Retail Sales (May), NAHB Housing Market Index

  • Wednesday: FOMC Rate Decision, Summary of Economic Projections, Fed Chair Powell press conference

  • Thursday: Jobless Claims, U.S. Housing Starts & Building Permits

  • Friday: Flash PMIs for U.S., Eurozone, and UK

Notable Earnings Reports

  • Few major earnings releases; attention remains on forward guidance from companies in retail, energy, and industrials with high input cost exposure.

  • Oracle and Adobe will report earnings, providing insight into enterprise spending trends and AI monetization.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

America’s Trade Deficit by Product

Posted on June 13, 2025 by macromon

Great graphic from the Visual Capitalist.  

If the U.S.’s trade deficit were a warehouse of items, what would it look like?  

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Yachts and Tent Cities: How Globalization Helped Fuel Wealth and Backlash

Posted on June 12, 2025 by macromon

The juxtaposition is stark. As Bloomberg reports Wall Street is pouring billions into marinas for ever-larger yachts, the BBC reminds us that U.S. homelessness reached a record high in 2024.

Winners and Losers of Free Trade

This contrast, in part, encapsulates the uneven dividends of globalization and free trade. The opening of global markets allowed firms to slash costs by offshoring production, boost profit margins, fuel stock prices, and funnel massive wealth to shareholders. At the same time, the income effect of free trade (purchasing power expansion) increased demand for domestic goods and services, creating millions of jobs and enriching many American workers.  Moreover, every American consumer benefits from a broader selection of goods and services at lower prices.

Yet a minority, those displaced by trade and globalization, paid a steep price. Deindustrialized regions have slid into long-term decline. Today’s backlash is not a rejection of global integration itself, in our opinion, but a verdict on decades of policy failure. Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) to those displaced has been, at best, minimal, while retraining programs are underfunded, poorly targeted, and largely ignored by policymakers. 

White House Interview

Late in President Reagan’s tenure, I interviewed for a junior economist position at the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). The role was tailored for Ph.D. students who had completed their comprehensive exams and were beginning their dissertations. The CEA was stacked with free marketers, fresh off the Milton Friedman assembly line, preaching the gospel of free markets, mostly from their perch at the University of Chicago.

Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA)

At the time, Congress was floating a trade adjustment bill to cushion the damage of a surging dollar and a flood of imports. Its centerpiece? A one-time $100,000 check ($301k in 2025 dollars) for laid-off steelworkers. The idea was simple: buy off the casualties of free trade and hope they retrain quietly.

The first question of the day-long interview was, “Gregor, what do you think of a bill writing a $100k check to displaced steel workers?” I answered earnestly, “We should focus on retraining and skills development.” The reply was swift: “That’s what the Democrats think.” The Chicago doctrine held that the market, not government, should determine how and where displaced workers retrain. I didn’t get the job.

Paying the Piper

That bill never passed. But at least at the time, free traders acknowledged the collateral damage of globalization (we use “free trade” and “globalization” interchangeably). Today, after decades of neglecting those left behind, the political cost has finally come due.

Globalization has generated massive wealth, created millions of new jobs, and fueled innovation. But we failed badly at cushioning the losses. Redistributing even a small share of the gains from global markets to those displaced would have been, and still remains, the smarter path forward.

TAA Allocation vs. Apple’s Market Capitalization

Few juxtapositions better capture the myopia and unfairness of our trade policy than the gap between what we’ve spent on displaced workers and what Apple shareholders have gained. Since 2008, the U.S. government has allocated just over $9 billion through Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) to support workers who lost or were threatened with losing their jobs due to foreign trade. In that same period, Apple’s shareholders have seen their wealth grow by more than $3 trillion.

Apple Inc. has expertly leveraged free trade and globalization to build an ultra-efficient supply chain, sourcing components from over 40 countries and assembling products in lower-cost regions like China, driving gross margins consistently above 40%. By tapping into global consumer markets, especially in Asia and Europe, Apple now generates over 60% of its revenue internationally, propelling its market capitalization past $3 trillion and enriching its investors.

What’s often overlooked is that this shareholder wealth has, in part, been built on the backs of displaced workers. Surely, a small fraction of those gains could—and should—be reinvested in the people and communities left behind.

Social Infrastructure Investment

Apple shareholders are now feeling the political backlash of globalization, as an Administration, claiming to represent displaced and marginalized workers, pressures the company to onshore operations in ways that defy economic logic. We argue that investing in social infrastructure, whether through Trade Adjustment Assistance or another targeted mechanism to cushion the impact of free trade, would have left Apple, its shareholders, and the nation far better off in the long run.

AI Cometh

Stay tuned because our massive wealth gap and the uneven distribution of income are about to be supercharged by the coming AI revolution.

Universal basic income (UBI)  is the new $100k check for steel workers, folks.  

Let’s hope we don’t fumble again, because AI is coming for jobs, big time. 

Appendix

Trade Adjustment Assistance

The map below visualizes over a decade of federal Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) funding, showcasing how different states have absorbed the brunt of economic displacement from globalization and trade liberalization. States in the industrial Midwest and parts of the South received disproportionately high allocations, reflecting the decline of manufacturing sectors in those regions.  

Conversely, lower funding levels in parts of the West and Northeast may indicate either less industrial exposure or underutilization of the program. While TAA has been a central pillar of U.S. trade policy aimed at helping displaced workers retrain and reenter the workforce, this map underscores the persistent regional imbalances in economic vulnerability and the ongoing need for targeted adjustment strategies as new forces like AI and reshoring reshape the labor landscape.

To provide better context, we divided each state’s total Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) spending by the size of its labor force, calculating the TAA dollars spent per worker. This normalization reveals sharp disparities—for instance, West Virginia received $168 per worker, while Nevada received just $4.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Sputnik to Starlink: The Crowded Frontier 

Posted on June 11, 2025 by macromon
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Seriously, They Call It A What?

Posted on June 10, 2025 by macromon

“Classic ‘bait and stitch.’ Yes—stitch.”  So Potemkin!

“The two largest economies in the world have reached a handshake for a framework,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said. “We’re going to start to implement that framework upon the approval of President Trump, and the Chinese will get their President Xi’s approval, and that’s the process.” – WSJ

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

China Trade Deal? Where’s the Beef?

Posted on June 10, 2025 by macromon

What the heck?  Looks like a big nothing burger to us.   Seat belts. 


US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said American and Chinese negotiators had agreed a framework deal to restore a truce in their trade war after marathon negotiations in London. The breakthrough restores the trade war ceasefire reached in Geneva last month that had faltered because of differences over Chinese rare earth exports and US export controls. The US team would return to Washington to present the deal to President Donald Trump, Lutnick said at the end of two days of talks in London. He did not provide any details about the framework. Li Chenggang, one of the Chinese trade officials, said he hoped the negotiations, which he described as professional and candid, would create more trust between the two nations, according to Reuters. Li said the Chinese team would also present the agreement to President Xi Jinping.  – FT

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Shenzhen to Scottsdale: Inside the Surge of Global Wealth Hub

Posted on June 10, 2025 by macromon

Great graphic from the Visual Capitalist ranking cities with the fastest-growing millionaire populations from 2014 to 2024.

Shenzhen Tech Boom

Shenzhen, home to industry leaders such as Huawei, Tencent, and DJI, has rapidly emerged as a global hub for technology and innovation. Its vibrant startup culture and expanding tech sector have produced thousands of new millionaires, driven by stock options, IPOs, and private equity investments. Reinforcing its strategic importance, the Chinese government has designated Shenzhen as a showcase city for forward-looking reforms and cutting-edge development.

Pheonix Scottsdale Rising

Taking second place on the list is Scottsdale, Arizona. Once primarily known as a resort destination, the city has reinvented itself as an emerging tech center. Scottsdale now hosts the headquarters of GoDaddy and offices for major companies such as PayPal, Yelp, and Turo.

Ranked third is Bengaluru, widely recognized as the “Silicon Valley of India.” Its economy is driven by strong performance in IT, biotechnology, aerospace, telecommunications, electronics, and manufacturing.

San Francisco Still Wealth Capital

While the San Francisco Bay Area has seen some major companies relocate in recent years, it still holds the top spot for overall millionaire population, boasting 342,400. The region is also home to 82 billionaires—more than the combined total of billionaires in the next six wealth hubs.

Outside the dominant markets of the U.S., China, and India, Dubai also claims a place in the top 10. Thanks to generous tax policies, a flourishing tech industry, and large-scale real estate projects, the city continues to draw affluent entrepreneurs and global investors.

On a country-by-country basis, the United States leads with eight wealth hubs, followed by China with five, and India with three.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Japan’s Demographic Crisis Reaches Tipping Point

Posted on June 9, 2025 by macromon
Posted in Demographics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

From Opium to Chips: The Long War Behind Trade Wars

Posted on June 7, 2025 by macromon

This one’s a must-view, folks. Not just because it’s smart and informative (it is), but because if you want to understand where this global trade war is headed, you need to understand where we’ve been.  We’ve been here before, same script, different century, shinier weapons.

Opium Wars & Fentanyl 

Today, the U.S. is hammering China over trade surpluses, supply chains, and fentanyl exports like it’s some 21st-century morality play. But let’s not kid ourselves, this ain’t new. Roll back the tape to the 1800s, when Britain was guzzling Chinese tea and bleeding silver to pay for it. The Empire didn’t sit down to rethink its consumption habits or embrace austerity. Nope. It pumped opium into China, grown in India by the ever-helpful East India Company.  When the Qing Dynasty pushed back, the Brits (and later the French) came with gunboats. Balance-of-payments problem solved… with cannon fire.

That little-remembered and mentioned kerfuffle was called the Opium Wars, and it ended with China coughing up Hong Kong and swallowing a bitter cocktail of treaties, humiliation, and foreign occupation. So when U.S. negotiators start waving fentanyl stats as leverage in trade talks, don’t be surprised if Beijing hears echoes of a century-long trauma. To China, this isn’t just trade. It’s history. It’s memory. It’s power.

And that’s the problem. Washington’s playing checkers while Beijing’s playing Go—with a 5,000-year memory and no term limits.

Watch This Video

Economic Warfare: When Trade Turns to War pulls back the curtain on this high-stakes chessboard and shows how trade, usually sold to the masses as the peaceful handshake of globalization, can become a blunt instrument of power. It’s a guided tour through the dark history of economic statecraft, from the silver flows and theft of Intellectual Property (IP) of the 19th century to the semiconductor sanctions and auto and steel tariffs of today.

Watch it. Learn something. Because the next chapter of this trade war isn’t going to be written in spreadsheets. It’s going to be written in strategy, scars, and steel.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Global Macro Monitor: Weekly Update – June 6

Posted on June 7, 2025 by macromon

The S&P 500 closed at 6000.4 on Friday, marking a significant psychological level with a 1.5% weekly gain. The strong performance was primarily driven by a short-covering bid, which reflects some big players are way offside, in our opinion.  The rally gained momentum towards the end of the week, following a solid employment report (+139,000 jobs), which exceeded market expectations. Despite this, the employment data saw revisions downward for previous months’ data, and the job growth was increasingly concentrated in just two sectors: leisure and hospitality, and healthcare.

As we move into the next week, maintaining the 6000-level will be critical for the S&P 500. If the index can consolidate above this level, it increases the possibility for new highs as we move through the summer months. However, failure to hold this level might signal a shift in market sentiment that stocks cannot break through the top of the trading range.  The upcoming CPI report is likely to play a crucial role.

Dollar

The dollar showed signs of weakness this week, particularly against EM currencies.  The almost flat performance of the dollar index was distorted by Dollar/Yen strength, which appreciated 0.6% on the week.  The dollar’s broader softness was notable, especially against emerging market currencies. This likely reflects a strong appetite for emerging market assets as global investors seek higher returns amid increasing risk appetite.

The dollar’s weakness against EM currencies suggests a shift in global capital flows. Emerging markets are poised to benefit from a stronger carry trade environment, while the U.S. faces mounting inflation risks that could further affect the currency’s value.

AI Trade

Across global risk markets, one theme continues to dominate: the AI trade. U.S. technology stocks linked to AI growth saw strong performance, particularly in sectors like information technology (+3.0%), communication services (+3.2%), and electronics technology. Asian markets, particularly Taiwan and Korea, also surged in tandem with strong demand for semiconductors and digital infrastructure driven by AI innovation.

Despite these advancements, there is still a significant underappreciation of AI’s economic impact in the market. AI technologies are not just reshaping industries but are poised to transform global productivity in ways that may not be fully captured in current market valuations. As AI continues to drive both corporate earnings and productivity gains, it is likely to become an even more dominant macro driver than traditional factors like inflation or trade tensions.

Global Markets

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) continued its easing cycle, reducing its Deposit Rate by 25 basis points to 2.00%, citing softer inflation but maintaining a modest easing bias. With core inflation slowing to 2.3%, the ECB is expected to pause rate cuts in July, but a final reduction in September remains likely.

Across emerging markets, the week saw a broad rally in stocks, with EM equities rising 2.3%. This was led by Korea and China, whose currency movements and strong equity performances indicate growing investor confidence in the region despite broader global uncertainties. As EM currencies continue to outperform the U.S. dollar, the global risk appetite for these regions may remain robust, further supported by easing inflation in several key markets.

Key Takeaways

  • The 6000 threshold for the S&P 500 is crucial. Maintaining this level could set the stage for new highs, while a failure to hold it may signal a shift in market dynamics.
  • Emerging market currencies are seeing strong inflows, especially with the dollar weakening. This could continue if inflation data supports a dovish Fed stance.
  • AI continues to be a macro driver underappreciated by the markets. As this sector evolves, it may significantly outperform broader market expectations.
  • European and emerging market assets are showing resilience. The ECB’s stance and strong performances in Asia and EM currencies highlight opportunities in these regions.

As we head into the week ahead, all eyes will be on CPI data and further economic developments that may shape the outlook for the global economy, particularly in terms of tariffs, inflation, and central bank policy

Markets

U.S. Market Analysis

  • S&P 500 closed at 6,000.4, up +1.5% for the week and +2.02% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite gained +2.2%, supported by strength in information technology and AI-related stocks.
  • Russell 2000 (small-cap index) rose +3.2%, outperforming large caps but remains down over 4% YTD.
  • Weekly gains were concentrated in:
    • Information Technology: +3.2%
    • Communication Services: +3.2%
    • Materials: +1.7%
  • Lagging sectors:
    • Consumer Staples: –1.4%
    • Utilities: –0.9%
  • Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell to 16.8, down from 18.6, indicating reduced market anxiety.
  • Rally was driven by:
    • May nonfarm payrolls: +139,000 jobs (vs. 130,000 est.)
    • Prior months revised down by –95,000
    • Unemployment rate held at 4.2%

Global Market Analysis

  • MSCI EAFE Index (Developed ex-US): +0.7% weekly return, +18.2% YTD
  • Eurozone:
    • Germany: +1.5%, +34.1% YTD
    • Italy: +1.3%, +34.7% YTD
    • France: +1.0%, +19.5% YTD
  • Emerging Markets (MSCI EM Index): +2.3% weekly, +11.4% YTD
    • China: +2.5%
    • Korea: +6.5%
    • Brazil: +1.6%
  • Japan (Nikkei 225): –0.6% on the week,  yen weakened –0.4% vs. USD.
  • U.S. Dollar Index was soft overall:
    • EM FX basket rose +1.1%
    • Notable moves: AUD +0.8%, EUR +0.3%, JPY –0.4%
  • Crude Oil (WTI) rose +6.3%, reaching a 6-week high amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions

Economics

U.S. Economic Overview

  • Labor Market:
    • Nonfarm payrolls: +139,000 (May)
    • Unemployment rate: 4.2%, unchanged
    • Hourly earnings: Not explicitly cited but wage pressures are moderating
  • Inflation:
    • May CPI (due Wednesday) expected to show early tariff pass-through effects
  • ISM Indices:
    • Manufacturing PMI: <50 for third straight month (contraction territory)
    • Services PMI: Contracted for first time in nearly a year
    • ISM export orders: Lowest in 5 years, import orders at GFC lows
  • Rate Outlook:
    • Futures imply 2 Fed cuts in 2025, starting in September
    • Treasury yields (as of June 6):
      • 2-yr: 4.04%
      • 10-yr: 4.50%
      • 30-yr: 4.96%
    • 2s/10s spread: +47 bps, marginal steepening

Global Economic Overview

  • Eurozone:
    • ECB rate cut: 25 bps to 2.00%
    • May core inflation: 2.3%, headline: 1.9%
    • Wage growth easing: Q1 comp per employee +3.8% YoY
  • Japan:
    • Core CPI revised higher for FY2025; BoJ likely to hike next in January
    • Domestic equities pressured by –1.8% weekly decline and rising yields
  • China:
    • PMI (official manufacturing): 49.5 (contracting)
    • Non-manufacturing PMI: 50.3; signs of soft service sector demand
    • Yuan rallied +2.5% against USD
  • India:
    • RBI rate cut: 50 bps to 5.50%
    • Inflation forecast: Lowered to 3.7%, GDP growth held at 6.5%
  • Brazil:
    • CPI forecast (May): 5.38% YoY, above BCB’s upper target band; market pricing 25 bps hike to 15.00%

Week Ahead

Key U.S. & Global Events

  • Monday: S.-China Trade Talks
  • Wednesday (June 12): U.S. CPI (core expected +0.3% MoM) — pivotal for market direction and Fed trajectory
  • Thursday (June 13): U.S. PPI and jobless claims
  • Friday (June 14): University of Michigan consumer sentiment (prelim)

Notable Earnings Reports

  • Tuesday: Oracle, GitLab
  • Wednesday: Broadcom, Five Below
  • Thursday: Adobe, DocuSign, RH
  • Friday: No major earnings scheduled

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment