WOTD: Word for the Day
You can’t make this stuff up.
Trumpery. Real word.
Can the definition be more apropos to what we see and experience every day?
Hat tip: Chris Cuomo
WOTD: Word for the Day
You can’t make this stuff up.
Trumpery. Real word.
Can the definition be more apropos to what we see and experience every day?
Hat tip: Chris Cuomo
QOTD = Quote of the Day
Will Rodgers was way ahead of his time.
His quote defines the group think of today’s marginal buyer with the qualification that stocks always go up. Well, at least, most of the time as the holding period time horizon expands.
Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it. – Will Rodgers
The Corner Solution End Game
Mr. Rodgers lived and suffered the consequences of the Fed’s grand failure to provide liquidity to failing banks – even the solvent ones — in 1931-32 that caused the U.S. money supply to contract 25 percent and put the “Great” in the Great Depression.
Now the Fed has swung to the other extreme and seemingly provides liquidity to the markets every time the S&P, say, drops 10 points. As a consequence, a “muddle through” scenario has been taken off the table, and the end game will be a corner solution,
Corner Solution
A solution to a minimization or maximization problem where an interior solution is infeasible. – definitions.net
The U.S. economy is now so dependent on debt monetization and asset price bubbles there is no longer the potential for a soft landing. It’s either fire or ice, hyperinflation or debt deflation. We think the former.
Stay tuned.
Just a quick note on what we believe has been one of the largest factors, along with globalization to the disinflationary forces over the past 30 years. That is the secular decline in the price of semiconductor prices. Semiconductors are the basic building block of today’s economy, as was oil during the industrial revolution.
Semiconductor Prices
The price of semiconductors and other electronic components has been declining for more than 30 years as illustrated in the monthly year-on-year price changes in the chart below.
Stunningly, 320 of the 368 months since January 1990 or 87.0 percent of the observations, the price of semiconductor and other electronic components have experienced negative year-on-year growth.
Deflation, no. Relative price changes, yes, brought on mainly by technology and to some extent globalization.
The Great Misread
The kneejerk reaction of most economists, including yours truly, when observing such steep secular declines in prices — down 48 percent over the past 30 years — is to attribute it to collapsing demand. Not so, with this commodity, however.
The above chart and table below illustrate the rapid and sustained growth in semiconductor production over the past several decades.
Since 1990, for example, semiconductor shipments in the U.S. have grown by 37K plus percent or 21.4 percent annually. Pretty amazing as prices have fallen by almost 5o percent.
Clearly, the positive supply shock of technology and globalization has put downward pressure on the “new oil” of the modern economy, which is a major factor contributing to the macro disinflationary pressures the economy has experienced over the past 30 years.
Here’s to hoping the trend continues but de-globalization and geopolitical instability make us less sanguine, however.
Taiwan, The Most Important Geopolitical Important Country In History?
Lastly, a little sidebar on the geopolitical and strategic importance of Taiwan as the Straight gets hot, hot, hot. See here and here.
If Intel falls further behind and leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing becomes concentrated in Taiwan then Taiwan will become geopolitically important in a way that the Middle East never was. Modern semiconductor manufacturing is at least as important to the economy as oil was in the 1970s. But in the case of oil, at least it was available all over the world albeit at higher prices than in the Middle East. Imagine a world where oil only came from one country, and how important that country would have been for the last hundred years. That is what the world would look like if Intel cannot find its footing and continue to manufacture chips at the leading-edge here in America. Taiwan could become by far the most geopolitically important country in the history of the world. – themarket.ch
Stay tuned, folks.
Good, God!
We have been writing for ten years about the coming “Clash of Generations” but we never, ever, in our wildest imagination believed it would result in an “elderly are expendable” vibe. Senicide.
The word “senicide” — meaning the deliberate murder of the elderly — is less well known, though of older provenance. According to the Oxford English Dictionary, it was first used by the Victorian explorer Sir Henry Hamilton Johnston. “The ancient Sardi of Sardinia,” he wrote in 1889, “regarded it as a sacred . . . duty for the young to kill their old relations.” – Boston Globe
Who would have ever believed it would also have the implicit support of the President of the United States, the oldest ever to sit in the Oval Office nearing the end of his first term. Ronald Reagan was 77 years when he left office.
My 17-year old is more worried and careful about COVID than I because she doesn’t want to get her dad sick. She is more willing, though not happy to sacrifice hanging with her friends to protect her grandmother and parents.
The senicide vibe should really help Trump with the senior vote, especially in Florida, ya’ think? The President’s re-election committee must have some real political geniuses.
In the final average of registered-voter polls, Trump led Clinton by 5 points among seniors. His advantage was 6 points among likely voters. These polls are suggesting something along the lines of 25- to 30-point shifts in Biden’s direction…Importantly, I already have noted how this movement among seniors is being seen on the state level as well. In Florida, for instance, where seniors make up around 30% of voters, Biden’s winning with voters 65 and older. Last time around, Clinton lost those voters by nearly 10 points in the final preelection polls. – CNN
You Heard It Here First
We suspect a Blue 1980-ish outcome in the popular vote where Trump wins around 41 percent of the popular vote (close to where he is currently polling), which is about the same percentage as President Carter won, but wins a bit more than the six states than Carter did in the electoral college. – Global Macro Monitor, April 13
Tax Selling?
If markets were efficient, there should be massive tax selling or front running of the almost doubling of the capital gains tax for the stock ownership class that is coming in a Biden Administration. Not the case. so far, as markets have been nationalized and do not reflect even a speck fundamental value.
The Wall Street cheerleaders always find a way spin everything bullish because their bonus depends on it.

Ridding the world of Trump is good for the world, the country, and my children.
Have no delusions, however, a Biden Administration with Democrats controlling both Houses of Congress will not be kind to Capital. Though the election result will be similar to 1980, the political and economic policies to come will be the polar opposites.
Nevertheless, I still think the tax front running selling is coming in the next few months unless the stock market is signally hyperinflation, which is not a zero probability. The Fed’s relentless propping up of asset markets has created an endgame of what economist’s call “corner solutions.” Fire or ice, hyperinflation or deflation. Brace yourselves.
Cue Tom Petty.
Never thought I would live like a climate refugee but here I am again couch surfing trying to put together a Plan B as the family is staying at the Hyatt in another city. Four freaking straight years of this, you’d think a trend is developing.
I’ve joined an elite club, where the last two homes I lived have been destroyed by violent wildfires.
Wake Up World
Wake up world, Rome is burning. Think of your children and grandchildren’s future.
No worries though, the stock market is rocking, no?
Was it Groucho that once said, “Bull markets are the opium of the people?” Or was that some German dude, a Jerry Garcia, Grateful Dead look alike?
Wherever you live, wherever you hide, however you delude yourself, climate change is coming for you. Ignorance and denial, or “the Chinese hoax” is not going to shield your children or grandchildren from the violent forces of nature as Mother Earth convulses from the previous generations mistreatment.
The debate is over, Mother Nature is rendering her opinion: we live in a spaceship economy and not a cowboy economy.
In the memorable phrase of economist Kenneth Boulding, the United States was “cowboy economy,” with a frontier ethic of limitless resources.
Boulding suggested instead a “spaceship economy,” in which people conserve and reuse material and energy, like astronauts aboard an orbiting capsule. – NY Times
This One Hurts
Though I am not much of a Material Girl — “you never see a U-Haul behind a hearse” — this loss really hurts personally. It was my favorite home that I have ever lived. Our long tree lined driveway always reminded me of Magnolia Lane at Augusta, home of the Masters Golf Tournament.
O, the fantasies, gone forever.
It may be a few weeks before GMM is back up and running. Gotta buy some socks, underwear, toothpaste, a new computer, and, ya’ know, find a place to live.
I am thankful to be part of the Lucky Sperm Club (LSC) and have the means to make the transition relatively easy. Not going to be so for most of the climate refugees of the future. Brace yourselves.
This is getting old.
The following is a photo on the side the hill close to our house late Sunday night. Heard huge explosions of propane tanks exploding when I evacuated.
Giving it 50/50 our house made it. Had a convo just yesterday with Carol K. that our house would almost certainly burn down within next five years.
Hope and praying everyone is out safe and nobody is injured.
This a must view video, folks, if you really want to understand what ails and divides America politically, and why Trump’s base sticks with him.
I had a great discussion today with Carol K., GMM’s crack stock picker about what is it that really divides America. Not only is she financially astute but a pretty damn good political scientist.
Much what she said sounded exactly like the Harvard professor I heard early in the day in an interview with CNN’s Michael Smerconish.
Harvard professor Michael Sandel discusses his theory that credentialism is the last acceptable form of prejudice in today’s society, and how that relates to President Trump’s political rise. – CNN
Working-Class Resentment And Meritocratic Hubris
In a nutshell, it is resentment by many of America’s working-class that the “elites” are looking down on them, and that elites have a “meritocratic hubris” that their success is their own doing, and by implication, those who have fallen behind must deserve their fate as well. Carol also nailed why many of the elites, who believe they deserve and have earned what they have, resent, say minorities or women, who are encroaching on their space or their income through taxation, for example.
We have talked a lot about the “Lucky Sperm Club”(LSC) at GMM over the years.
LSC
If not for our membership in the Lucky Sperm Club (LSC), that could be you or I out on the street. The LSC does not mean just belonging to a billionaire family, but being born into a decent family with decent parents with the means of providing us with a decent education. We could just as easy been born a crack baby in Harlem, folks. Being born in America makes you part of the LSC.
Thank goodness we are the right side of randomness. Fat tails, indeed. – GMM, Nov ’18
If you are reading this post, you are part of the LSC, by the way.
Only until we understand a life of Grace – unmerited favor –can we really begin to heal this great country, which is in the midst of a slow-motion catastrophic train wreck, threatening its very existence.
Listen to the whole interview before firing off the snarky emails about hard work and making your own destiny…yada yada yada.
Money Quotes From The Interview