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Tag Archives: Economics
Yachts and Tent Cities: How Globalization Helped Fuel Wealth and Backlash
The juxtaposition is stark. As Bloomberg reports Wall Street is pouring billions into marinas for ever-larger yachts, the BBC reminds us that U.S. homelessness reached a record high in 2024. Winners and Losers of Free Trade This contrast, in part, … Continue reading
RIP GOAT of Macro
Stanley Fischer’s impact on our journey as economists is both profound and personal. From the moment we encountered his co-authored textbook Macroeconomics—a work that distilled the complexity of the dismal science into practical, accessible insight—Fischer became a silent guide along … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 30
Global markets ended the month of May on relatively firm footing, with equity indexes rebounding modestly, inflation easing slightly, and consumer confidence stabilizing. However, beneath this surface calm lies a deeper undercurrent of concern—a growing alarm over sovereign debt and … Continue reading
Fiscal Scorecard: How COVID Torched the Budget
When President Donald Trump took office in January 2017, he inherited a relatively stable fiscal environment. The federal budget deficit stood at approximately $581 billion, or 3.05% of GDP—a level widely regarded as sustainable by historical standards. Ironically, that same … Continue reading
Global PMI: Growth at 17-month Low
Key Takeaways: Global economic growth slowed in April 2025, with the Composite PMI falling to 50.8—its lowest in 17 months and below the long-term average. Service sector expansion weakened significantly, while manufacturing remained tepid with only slight growth in consumer … Continue reading
The Anatomy of a Bond and Currency Crisis
It was the autumn of 1996 when I arrived in Sofia, Bulgaria. I was working for a major Wall Street investment bank and had a clear and urgent mission to assess the sustainability of Bulgaria’s sovereign debt. The atmosphere in … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – Nov 29
Cracks in Global Economies Amid Easy Financial Conditions Despite the extremely easy financial conditions in the United States as measured by the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), significant economic stress is emerging across key markets, exposing vulnerabilities that … Continue reading
La France sous pression
Key Facts: Market Impact: French 10-year bond yield spreads hit their highest since 2012, reflecting investor concerns about political instability. Budget Controversy: The €60bn budget proposal includes significant austerity measures, risking parliamentary backlash. Political Stakes: Far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s … Continue reading
Where’s the Inflation?
Key Facts: The CPI-U rose 0.2% in October, with a 12-month increase of 2.6%. Shelter index rose 0.4%, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase. Food prices grew by 0.2% in October, with varying increases between food at home (0.1%) … Continue reading
Sharp Drop In ISM Services Index
The Services PMI® fell to 48.8% in June 2024 compared to May’s reading, contracting at the fastest pace in four years. This drop reflects declines in business activity, new orders, and employment, alongside challenges in supplier deliveries and inventory management. … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 