Monthly Archives: December 2010

Japan Opposition Plans for “X-day” Bond Crash

Japan’s opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)  says the government’s spending plans increase the risk of a collapse in the country’s bond market.   Bloomberg reports, “We’re approaching a danger zone where bond prices could plunge,” Yoshimasa Hayashi, the Liberal Democratic Party’s … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

IMF Concludes 403.3 Tonne Gold Sale

The International Monetary Fund announced today they have concluded their sale of 403.3 metric tonnes of gold, which was approved by the Executive Board in September 2009.   From the press release, These sales are a central element of the new income … Continue reading

Posted in BRICs, Gold | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Dead Wood No Longer

Take a look at lumber prices.  In the days of traditional monetary policy in a normal economy,  the Fed would lower interest rates and the construction sector would lead the economy out of recession.   Lumber prices were  a leading indicator. … Continue reading

Posted in Commodities, Economics, Equities | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Hang Seng Bounces, Sets Up Santa Claus Rally

Nice rebound in the Hang Seng, which was threatening to break the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern.  As one of our indicator species for global risk,  the Hang Seng recovery paves the way for a Santa Claus rally … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

End of December Global Stock Returns

The following table shows the 2000-09 average return for each day of the last seven days of the year for the major global averages.  The number 1, for example,  is the last trading day of the year. On average, the … Continue reading

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Increase in Petroleum Deliveries Signals Stronger Economy

A good friend and one of the best energy hedge fund managers sent this over this morning. It is from Downstream Today.com, Total U.S. petroleum deliveries (a measure of demand) increased 6.5 percent in November compared with November 2009, evidence … Continue reading

Posted in Crude Oil, Economics, Energy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Day of Reckoning for State and Local Governments

A must view 60 Minutes on the fiscal disasters of state and local governments.  Meredith Whitney and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie weigh in.  Check it out. Click here for video

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Muni Bonds, Politics, Video | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Apple’s Seasonal Trading Pattern

Lot’s of chatter how poorly Apple is trading.  We’ve looked at the past six years of December trading and this year’s action is no different from the ghosts of Christmas past.  After popping on the October earnings announcement, the stock … Continue reading

Posted in Charts, Equities | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Is Gold Just a Fear Trade?

We hear a lot of noise today about how fear is dissipating with the collapse of the VIX and that the gold trade is therefore over.  This motivated us to look at how the GLD trades with big moves in … Continue reading

Posted in Gold, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

All About Gold With Charlie Rose, James Grant & Co.

Be sure to catch the must view Charlie Rose’s December 6 show on Gold with James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, John Hathaway of Tocqueville Asset Management,  and Peter Munk, chairman and founder of Barrick Gold. Click here … Continue reading

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