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Author Archives: macromon
Tariffs and Toothpaste: The Inflation You Didn’t Expect
“This is a highly fluid situation and we’ll need to manage quantity decisions as we measure the price elasticity of impacted items,” underscoring how Walmart adjusts its inventory and pricing strategy based on customers’ sensitivity to price changes.” – John … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – July 11
Markets wrapped up the week with a paradoxical sense of calm, even as trade tensions re-escalated on multiple fronts. At the center of the uncertainty is President Donald Trump’s hardline tariff rhetoric, including threats of sweeping new levies on the … Continue reading
Gagging Dr. Copper and Distorting the Economy
…AI data centers are likely to require enormous amounts of copper to meet their capacity needs… – Barron’s, July 9, 2022 Back in September 2022, Global Macro Monitor made the call: “If you are not buying copper hand-over-fist here, at … Continue reading
Nonlinear Thinking: AI Just Made My Latte
Since Global Macro Monitor launched, we’ve tracked the technologies we believed would reshape the world. Now that the future is no longer theoretical. We’re at the elbow of the exponential curve, where change accelerates beyond prediction—and it’s hitting the real … Continue reading
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Short the Long Bond on the Shortest Day Ever
Today will be the shortest day in history as Earth’s rotation unexpectedly speeds up – Daily Mail A Celestial Signal from the Macro Gods? Today, we’re taking a position against the long end of the Treasury curve—not just for fundamentals … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – June 27
Last week’s market tone reflected a convergence of stabilizing macro forces: easing geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices, and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. But beneath these surface-level catalysts lies a far more powerful narrative: the AI revolution. AI … Continue reading
Wired for Power: How China’s Grid Grab Leaves the U.S. in the Dust
Alec Stapp’s chart isn’t just data—it’s a geopolitical pulse check. China is gobbling up global electricity capacity like it’s at an all-you-can-generate buffet, now pushing past 2,500 GW while the U.S. idles near 1,300 GW. That’s not just scale—it’s intent. … Continue reading
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QOTD: Now the Waiting Game
A very smart someone agrees with GMM. Anyone who has observed the last two decades of history in the Middle East would think hard about unleashing such an attack. You would want to think several steps ahead, and there is … Continue reading
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Iran and China’s Crude Connection
China’s role in the Iran‑Israel conflict isn’t born of strategic grandstanding, but of pragmatic energy calculus. Iran, tightly constrained by Western sanctions, has increasingly tethered its oil lifeline to Beijing, now accounting for approximately 85 percent of its oil exports. This … Continue reading
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