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Category Archives: Bonds
Gundlach’s Coming Corporate Bondageddon
Nice piece in ZH on Jeff Gundlach dishing with Yahoo Finance on the vulnerability of the corporate bond market in the next recession. In our data analysis piece, which we reposted below, we highlight the fact largest holders of U.S. corporate … Continue reading
Millennials Rising, Market Risk Increasing
Righteous! Check out today’s cover of the Economist. It confirms our ongoing analysis and illustrates why you should read the Global Macro Monitor, folks. It’s been almost exactly one year to the date since we posted, Karl, The Comeback Kid? We warned … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Politics, Uncategorized
Tagged AOC, Millennials, MMT, QE, Soros, Stocks
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Ownership And Profile Of The Corporate Bond Market
Summary Nonfinancial corporates have amost doubled their stock of outstanding bonds since the GFC moving from 19.5 percent of GDP in 2007 to 26.5 percent in Q3 2018 Conversely, the domestic financial sector has been delevering, reducing bond debt by … Continue reading
Our Autopsy On The Still Living Bear Market
Summary We believe the market is way off base in its analysis of what caused stocks to sell hard in 2018 The U.S. and world have a debt problem and yields need to mover higher in order for markets to … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized
16 Comments
Yield Spike
We highlighted the potential risk in our post yesterday, Druckenmiller On Bonds If you listened to the Druckenmiller interview we posted on New Year’s Day, he thrives in bear markets, not by shorting stocks but being long bonds. Shorting stocks … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Interest rates, Stan Druckenmiller, yields
11 Comments
Free Ride Is Over: China & Japan Bailing On Treasuries
We had a request to look at the annual change in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities as an addendum to our post from last night. It’s clear the two largest foreign creditors to the United States government are pulling … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Capital Flows, China, Japan, Uncategorized
Tagged China, Foreign creditors, Japan, U.S. Budget Deficits
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Week In Review – October 5
Summary Ugly week for Global Bonds. Run to our Sept 23rd post, The Gathering Storm in the Treasury Market 2.0, as to why we thought yields were about to spike. Boy, did they Stocks followed bonds lower causing pain the … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized, Week in Review
Tagged bonds, Interest rates, Week in Review
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Alea Iacta Est!
As Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon River with the 13th legion into Italy to march on Rome, he turned to one of his deputies, quite possibly, Marc Antony, and made the famous remark, “alea iacta est.” Historians translate this as “the die … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, German Bund, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Asset Markets, Interest rates, Julius Caesar, yields
19 Comments
Get Shorty, Got Shorty, Still Shorty In 10-Year Notes
Interesting chart from Bloomberg on the growing record short position by specs in 10-year note futures. Surprisingly, there has been no meaningful squeeze in the 10-year during 2018, even with the massive equity volatility shock in early February. In fact, … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 