Category Archives: Budget Deficit

Monetarism Redefined: Crude, Fine Wine & Gold

Posted on January 20, 2011 by macromon

“Inflation is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon” – Milton Freidman Monetarism as a theory, which states that the variation in the money supply has major influences on national output in the short run and the price level over longer … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, Budget Deficit, Charts, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Currency, Economics, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Shanghai Breaks 200-day, Commodites Next to Roll?

Posted on January 17, 2011 by macromon

During the 1990’s when the emerging markets were still emerging a friend of ours wrote a research report on pre-restructured busted Russian debt titled, No Rush to Buy, No Russians Buying.  The point was the Russians knew the prospects for … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, Budget Deficit, China, Commodities, Crude Oil, Currency, Economics, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

The Graying of Calfornia’s Flower Children

Posted on January 9, 2011 by macromon

Well this is a depressing chart and remember California usually leads the nation.    We fear us baby boomers risk eating all the  “seed corn” and leaving nothing for the younger generations to invest in their future, which the quality … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Demographics, Muni Market, Policy, Politics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

House Budget Chief Ryan Channels His “Inner” Angela Merkel

Posted on January 7, 2011 by macromon

Bloomberg is reporting Angel Merkel Rep. Paul Ryan, Republican “Young Gun”and new House Budget Committee chairman,  says he and his party won’t bailout states who are facing potential defaults.   Just after the November election we posted this was coming. Listen … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Economics, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | 2 Comments

State and Local Governments, Man Your Battle Stations!

Posted on January 6, 2011 by macromon

Take a look at the new cover of the Economist. We have been all over the coming “battle royal” between the state and local governments and their public sector unions, but not as much as Mike Shedlock over at the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Did the Russell 2000 predict the better than expected ADP?

Posted on January 5, 2011 by macromon

Did you notice the better than expected ADP employment report this morning.  It was the largest monthly jump ever in this report, with most of the jobs created in small and medium sized businesses? Recall we wrote on January 3rd … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Currency, Employment, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, News, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Betting on a Jobs Recovery, Christie, and Brown….

Posted on January 3, 2011 by macromon

Like others, we can’t help but notice the massive outperformance of small caps in 2010, with the Russell 2000 doubling the performance of the S&P500. The Russell was up over 25 percent in 2010.  Isn’t this only supposed to happen … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Employment, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Politics | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Are we too short Bernanke?

Posted on January 2, 2011 by macromon

Sometimes we like to channel our inner bull, as in bovine, which is rare for ex-bond traders.  Trying to see all angles of the dimly lit statue we call the market is a necessity to manage the risk that: a)  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

George Will on Coming War Over Public Pensions

Posted on December 26, 2010 by macromon

Be sure to catch George Will’s Washington Post piece on the coming battle in the new Congress over state and local public pensions.   In early December, we posted the report by James Pethokoukis of a secret Republican plan to push … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

A spectre is haunting Europe

Posted on December 22, 2010 by macromon

This is what’s  going to blow up the Europe.   All the cash and backstopping in the world is not going to solve the political problem.   Jim Corr, a member of one of our favorite Irish bands, The Corrs,  nails … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment