Category Archives: Dollar

Dollar Yen Pierces Long-Term Downtrend Line

Posted on January 24, 2012 by macromon

Our friends over at Lighthouse Securities posted a nice chart and great analysis on today’s $/Yen’s break of its two-year downtrend line.    We’re sensing this could be one of the big macro trades of 2012. As Europe works through … Continue reading →

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The Ugly Chart Contest

Posted on January 22, 2012 by macromon

Well not so ugly.  The dollar index is hovering around its short-term trend, but is now below the 20-day sma.  No clear break of trend yet. Crude looks like it is rolling over.  We heard Fareed Zakaria say on his … Continue reading →

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The Race to Debase

Posted on January 16, 2012 by macromon

Wow!  Nice catch up by the ECB.   Don’t you get the feeling more QE3 talk from from the FED confirmed by dollar stabilization — i.e., non-strength — will ignite gold like a bottle rocket? (click here if chart is … Continue reading →

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Chart of the Day: Dollar Top or Breakout?

Posted on January 8, 2012 by macromon

Tough to bet on a triple top here.  Looks like 82.60 is the next key level, which is the .618 fib retracement of the June 7, 2010/May 2, 2011 move. (click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Currency, Dollar | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Hourly Compensation Costs in Manufacturing

Posted on December 22, 2011 by macromon

Great data from the BLS comparing hourly compensation for manufacturing.   The second chart looks at the benefits component of the hourly cost. The data are from 2010 and sensitive to exchange rate movements.   We will post a follow-up chart in … Continue reading →

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I Wish I Was In Dixie

Posted on December 13, 2011 by macromon

The Dollar Index,  the “Dixie,” is breaking out and looks like it will slice through the next resistance level “like a hot knife through butter.”   For those interested,  click here for the song Dixie and here for its historic significance. … Continue reading →

Posted in Dollar | Tagged | 2 Comments

Oats-Bunds Tighter

Posted on November 30, 2011 by macromon

In case you haven’t noticed the France 10-year bond spread over German 10-years has come in big over the past few weeks.  Granted some of it is attributed to the rise in German bond yields, but tighter, nonetheless. (click here … Continue reading →

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The Consequences of Euro Debt Monetization

Posted on November 17, 2011 by macromon

As the pressure on ECB grows to step up its “bid of last resort” for European sovereign bonds, the folks over at Zero Hedge ask the very important question what are consequences if the ‘zone  resorts to massive debt monetization?    … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Dollar, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

M.F. Euro Takes Down Equities

Posted on October 31, 2011 by macromon

Lots of debate out there what took the market down today.  We’re not certain you can tag the first 15 S&P points on a single factor — MF Global, euro,  Italy, yen intervention and strong dollar, or simple profit taking … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Dollar, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Brazilian Blowout

Posted on August 15, 2011 by macromon

Today’s rally in front of the Merkel/Sarkozy cup of tea surprised many, including us.  We’re not expecting much from the meeting, but you never know, and the market may have set itself up for disappointment.   Looking at the action in … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs, Commodities, Currency, Dollar, Global Stock Performance | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments