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Category Archives: Economics
Fed Day With Extremely Loose Financial Conditions
Today is the day, folks. The consensus is the Fed announces the start of quantitative tightening (QT). History in the making. Draining Liquidity Though monetary tightening officially began in December 2015, this will be the first time the Fed drains … Continue reading
Posted in ECB, Economics, Equities, Euro, Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged ECB, Fed, FOMC, Monetary Policy, Quantitative Tightening
1 Comment
Nominal GDP At 4 Percent, Fed Way Behind Curve
The BEA revised Q2 GDP up this morning, Current-dollar GDP increased 4.0 percent, or $189.0 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $19,246.7 billion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.3 percent, or $152.2 billion. – BEA … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged GDP growth, Nomimal GDP, Nominal Interest Rates, October Correction
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The “Dusenberry Effect” In The U.S. Economy
Just saw this chart on Zero Hedge yesterday, which takes me back to the days of graduate school and an unfinished Ph.D. dissertation. One part of the “Dusenberry Effect” basically states that consumers do not give up their consumption patterns … Continue reading
QOTD: Risk
You want to take risk when others are fleeing from it, not when they’re competing with you to do so. …But it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, … Continue reading
The “Firming” Global Recovery
The IMF upgraded their view of the global economy, while slightly downgrading U.S. economic growth due to lack of fiscal progress. The Global Economy Maintains Momentum The cyclical recovery continues. Growth outturns in the first quarter of 2017 were higher … Continue reading
Current Accounts of EM “Fragile Five” Improving
The improvement in emerging-market fundamentals can most easily be seen in the current-account deficits among Morgan Stanley’s so-called “fragile five,” a group of nations the bank identified in 2013 as being particularly vulnerable to higher global rates. The gap reached … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Uncategorized
Tagged Brazil, Current Account Balances, Emerging Markets, Fragile Five, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey
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This Rhyme Is Different: Base Money > M1
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain (maybe) We have been speaking a lot about how the liquidity in the market today is different than in the past. The chart below reflects this better than … Continue reading
COTD: Amazon Eating Retail
(COTD = Chart of the Day) It’s important to note that Amazon still only boasts a 5 percent share of total retail sales, excluding food, across the country, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Sanderson said. – CNBC … Continue reading
Economist Personality Traits
Studies of personality traits common to various disciplines have discovered that economics, like engineering, tends to attract people with an unusually strong preference for order, and a distaste for ambiguity. – The Guardian
The Health Care Bill And The Fallacy Of 18% Of GDP
The American political system may just be about to wake up and inching torward bipartisanship. The failure of the Republicans to “repeal and replace” Obamacare after seven years of pounding the table is a “big fail.” After controlling both houses … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 