Category Archives: Interest Rates

Prepare For Much Higher Long-Term Rates

Posted on May 3, 2018 by macromon

There has been a huge drain of liquidity from the U.S. Treasury market over the past few years, and may signal a structural change to how the United States finances budget deficits. The government will always find a way to … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Charts, China, Credit, Geopolitical, Interest Rates, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 36 Comments

Upward Pressure On Interest Rates To Continue

Posted on March 10, 2018 by macromon

Though wage inflation came in nice and cool on Friday,  the following chart illustrates why upward pressure on long-term interest rates will continue.   We updated our Who’s Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit chart with the just released Flow of Funds … Continue reading →

Posted in Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Bond Yields and Equity Prices

Posted on November 20, 2017 by macromon

Interesting chart which reflects what we have been preaching for years. Central bank distorted and repressed bond yields result in a mispricing of all other assets. This chart goes a step further and quantifies it, though it assumes “all other … Continue reading →

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Mrs. Watanabe Can Stand Many Things, But Not Zero Percent

Posted on October 2, 2017 by macromon

Good piece posted on Bloomberg about how Japanese retail is chasing yield in Turkey. It’s those 10 percent-plus rates across the Turkish bond curve — among the highest in major emerging markets — that are luring Mr. and Mrs. Watanabe … Continue reading →

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Nominal GDP At 4 Percent, Fed Way Behind Curve

Posted on August 30, 2017 by macromon

The BEA revised Q2 GDP up this morning, Current-dollar GDP increased 4.0 percent, or $189.0 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $19,246.7  billion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.3 percent, or $152.2 billion.  –  BEA … Continue reading →

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Debate Within The FOMC: Bubblistas v. Efficient Marketistas?

Posted on August 22, 2017 by macromon

We have finally made the time to more closely review the release of last week’s Fed minutes from the July 25-26 meeting.   We kind of like what we see. Debate Breaking Out Among FOMC Members? A debate appears to breaking … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 16 Comments

Gary Cohn As Next Fed Chairman?

Posted on July 11, 2017 by macromon

Politico out with a piece tonight citing souces that National Economic Council Director and Goldman alum, Gary Cohn, is the leading contender to replace Janet Yellen next January.    Interesting timing as it comes on the eve of Janet Yellen’s two-day … Continue reading →

Posted in Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 15 Comments

Orwellian Monetary Policy

Posted on May 14, 2017 by macromon

“Tightening is Easing” Since U.S. monetary policy began tightening in December 2015, the Fed has added liquidity to the financial system through interest payments to banks on excess reserves and has reduced its surplus to the Treasury adding to the … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged | 38 Comments

LIBOR Over 1 Percent, First Time In 7 years

Posted on January 4, 2017 by macromon

The times they are a changin [incrementally]’. The Wall Street Journal reports, But on Wednesday it was set at 1.00511%, topping that key threshold for the first time in more than seven years, as investors brace for more Federal Reserve rate … Continue reading →

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