Category Archives: Monetary Policy

Fed Chair Watch

Posted on October 5, 2017 by macromon

Warsh gaining momentum in prediction markets.

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Here Is Where The Volatility Is…

Posted on October 4, 2017 by macromon

Unbelievable vol in the prediction markets over the next Fed chair. Checked last night and Neel Kashkari, the super dove,  was over 30 cents.   John Taylor, the rules-based Stanford prof,  was up around 20 cents.   Kevin Warsh, who leans hawkish … Continue reading →

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FOMC: A Big Double Cheese Non-Burger

Posted on September 20, 2017 by macromon

Monetary policy history made today. The  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  confirmed it would begin its long-awaited quantitative tightening (QT). In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Fed, German Bund, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Fed Day With Extremely Loose Financial Conditions

Posted on September 20, 2017 by macromon

Today is the day,  folks. The consensus is the Fed announces the start of quantitative tightening (QT).   History in the making. Draining Liquidity Though monetary tightening officially began in December 2015,  this will be the first time the Fed drains … Continue reading →

Posted in ECB, Economics, Equities, Euro, Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Fed Vice Chair, Stanley Fischer, Exit Stage Left

Posted on September 10, 2017 by macromon

This one is going to hurt.   Stanley Fischer is one of, if not, our favorite economist. As Larry Summers points out in his recent piece in the Washington Post, The Fed and the international monetary system will be weaker for … Continue reading →

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Cohn Dropping In Prediction Markets As New Fed Chair

Posted on September 2, 2017 by macromon

If tax reform looks stalled, and we should find out in the next few weeks, is there any reason for Gary Cohn to stick around if he concludes he won’t be appointed Fed Chair?  We wonder. Odds he will replace … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 12 Comments

Super Mario’s Problem In One Picture

Posted on August 31, 2017 by macromon

File under “Kafkaesque Markets.” Source:  MacroTourist

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The Gold-Bond Correlation And Other Macro Observations

Posted on August 27, 2017 by macromon

We have posted several pieces over this year noting the high correlation of gold and 10-year bond futures. See here, here and here. Here is how the gold ETF (GLD) and the Treasury ETF (TLT) have moved together over various … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Gold, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

Speech By Mario Draghi At Jackson Hole

Posted on August 25, 2017 by macromon

Sustaining openness in a dynamic global economy Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the Economic Policy Symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, 25 August 201 The global recovery is firming up. In … Continue reading →

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Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole Speech

Posted on August 25, 2017 by macromon

August 25, 2017 Financial Stability a Decade after the Onset of the CrisisFinancial Stability a Decade after the Onset of the Crisis Chair Janet L. Yellen At “Fostering a Dynamic Global Recovery,” a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank … Continue reading →

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