Category Archives: Politics

The Power of Rick Santelli

Posted on August 1, 2011 by macromon

Wonder if the Great Santelli ever thought he’d have this much power.  His rant on the floor of the CME in February 2009 is widely recognized as giving birth to the Tea Party movement.   Hat tip, John Porter! (click … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Politics | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Plan B: President Clinton’s 1995 Mexico Bailout

Posted on July 25, 2011 by macromon

It’s hard to fathom that the U.S. will default on its debt, but in the event Congress can’t come to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, we have little doubt President Obama will circumvent Congress and invoke Section 4 … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

The Armageddon Trade

Posted on July 24, 2011 by macromon

Here are the four markets we do not want to see large concurrent sustained moves in the direction as illustrated. (click here if picture is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , , | 8 Comments

It’s beginning to look a lot like? Choose your analog…

Posted on June 30, 2011 by macromon

It’s the end of the first half and we’ve updated our Presidential Stock Cycle, Decennial, and 1991 analog charts.   Click here, here,  and here for background.  Note,  the predicted performance of the Presidential and Decennial analogs are constructed from the … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Housing, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Sarkozy Attack Video

Posted on June 30, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Euro, Politics, Video | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Why Europe Can’t Afford a Greek Haircut

Posted on June 29, 2011 by macromon

If a picture is worth a thousand words, the following chart from the IMF encapsulates all the analysis one needs to understand why Mr. Trichet and the rest of the Eurozone bureaucracy are so adamant about not letting Greece restructure … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Euro, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Moving Day?

Posted on June 11, 2011 by macromon

We want to clarify and answer some of the questions that have come in about the phrase “Moving Day for the Administration” in our prior post.   We surely did not mean the administration will or should be moving from the … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Fiscal Policy, Politics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

S&P500 Down First Six Days of June – Party Like It’s 1991?

Posted on June 9, 2011 by macromon

The S&P500 closed 0.42 percent lower today, the sixth consecutive down day to start the month of June.   Only once in the past 60 years has the S&P started June with six straight  lower closes.   After an 18.24 percent early … Continue reading →

Posted in Charts, Economics, Equities, Politics | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Merkel Hammers Greece on Retirement Age and Vacation

Posted on May 19, 2011 by macromon

The European election cycle is kicking into high gear as the German chancellor had some tough words for Greece,  Spain, and Portugal.  Spiegel ONLINE reports, “It is also important that people in countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal are not … Continue reading →

Posted in Euro, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Global Economy’s Unstable Equilibrium

Posted on March 8, 2011 by macromon

We’ve put together this nice little graphic which reflects our view the global economy is in a very unstable equilibrium and list many of the issues and headwinds it faces.   Global economic growth, based on monetary or credit induced asset … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Economics, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , | 6 Comments