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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 23
Last week’s Global Risk Monitor (GRM) warned of potential instability in global tariff negotiations, and unfortunately, those concerns proved prescient. Markets stumbled under the weight of fiscal volatility, erratic policy pronouncements, and renewed trade threats—all driven by the chaotic and … Continue reading
Notes from the U.S. Supply Chain – May 22
Manufacturers stocked up on inputs, generally citing concerns over potential tariff-related price increases and supply shortages, the latter reflected in suppliers’ delivery times lengthening in May to the greatest extent since October 2022. The increase in buying activity was the … Continue reading
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QOTD: Signals, Signals Everywhere
QOTD = Quote of the Day What a contrast between the current Citi CEO and the former who danced his bank over the edge and right into the Global Financial crisis. …if you’re looking for signals, they’re everywhere. Treasury yields … Continue reading
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HOTD: Back to Liberation Day?
HOTD = Headline of the Day As we suspected in yesterday’s Global Risk Monitor, recent developments confirm a deteriorating trajectory in U.S. trade negotiations. Today’s Financial Times headline underscores the hardening U.S. stance, signaling heightened tariff risks for non-cooperative trade … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 16
Financial markets continued to rebound this week, buoyed by temporary trade de-escalations and looser financial conditions. However, beneath the surface of this rally lies a landscape of historically elevated valuations and persistent uncertainty. Market participants should temper optimism, as the … Continue reading
Global PMI: Growth at 17-month Low
Key Takeaways: Global economic growth slowed in April 2025, with the Composite PMI falling to 50.8—its lowest in 17 months and below the long-term average. Service sector expansion weakened significantly, while manufacturing remained tepid with only slight growth in consumer … Continue reading
Summers on Trump, Tariffs, and Threats to the Economy
This is a long interview, but an excellent one. It’s worth your time.
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Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 2
This week, global equities extended their recovery, buoyed by rising optimism over potential U.S.–China trade negotiations. Though no formal talks or trade agreements have been signed and most tariffs remain in place—including broad-based global levies—markets responded positively to U.S. administration … Continue reading
S&P 500 Key Levels – April 30
Equity markets extended their rebound today, bouncing smartly from a sharp early morning sell-off. The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since the recent correction, marking a notable shift in sentiment. Based on where futures are trading this evening, … Continue reading
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Global Macro Monitor 