If only it were as easy as in the movies…
Reporters were shown a video ahead of Donald Trump’s press conference in Singapore, which the US president said he had played it to Kim Jong-un and his aides toward the end of their talks. It was made by Destiny Productions and was presented in Korean and English in the style of an action movie trailer Subscribe to Guardian News
The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices. – GMM
Euro sovereign spreads were stable today. The Italy 2-year came in further steepening the country’s yield curve. Euro banks flattish.
EM FX
The relentless pressure on EM fx continues even after their central banks tighten up monetary policy. The Fed and ECB meetings loom large.
Interest rates continue to rise across the emerging markets.
Summary Bullets
Always a good thing. Here’s to hoping that the lives of our Korean brothers and sisters both in the north and south will improve dramatically with respect to a lasting peace and standard of living.
We are not discussing any proposal to exit the euro. The government is determined to avoid the materialisation of market conditions that push us towards an exit in any way. – Giovanni Tria, Italian finance minister, June 11
Italian and Euro periphery assets recovered today on the back of euro positive comments by the new Italian finance minister (see above). Italy’s 10-year sovereign spread in big by 33 bps against the the Bund with the curve steepening by 6 bps. Unicredit up over 6 percent.
BNP and other French bank lagged as the the government signaled the country’s banks need to raise additional capital. European banks still woefully undercapitalized.
EM
EM currencies remain under pressure as the focus now turns to Mexico’s presidential election on July 1. BMI research is now giving the lefty candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), a 90 percent of becoming the next president of the United Mexican States. Watch how this picture unfolds.
Very interesting lecture by game theorist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. Money quote: “Not pie in the sky to use rigorous logic and evidence…to have an affect on really hard policy questions.” Game theory.
Nice story about Honest Abe,
“Abraham Lincoln founded the National Academy of Sciences. Abraham Lincoln was also the first attorney to make a statistical argument in front of the Supreme Court to buttress his economic claims, which were correct, that keeping bridges over the Mississippi to allow the railroad to pass over the river was economically more important than protecting paddle wheel steamers. ” – Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 1:08 minutes
Classic inverse head & shoulders pattern for the weekly nearest copper futures chart. The break out above 2.961 puts a measured move to 3.94 in play, which is about 20 percent above the current level. The next big number for upside resistance is 3.466.
A new bull market for copper? Stay tuned.
This software enables computers to understand human emotions and turn them into actionable insights. Here’s how it works. – MarketWatch
Global Macro Monitor 