Global Macro Monitor

It is  hard to post this as we personally like the guy, think he is full of grace, a gentleman, and a public servant committed to civil discourse.   We need more of his likes in the public square.

That said,  we would not want him as our doctor as he, we believe, is unqualified, just as we would not want a history major doing brain surgery on us.

Unfortunately,  these two quotes are just a few of many that indicates his lack of understanding of the underlying dynamics of a very complicated economy.

Everyone who predicts has a legion of wrong forecasts, and we understand it’s unfair to hold someone to a few bad calls.   We are, among the first, of the wrongsters of bad calls.
However, if you are flying a passenger jet with so many lives at stake,  you must be held to a higher standard.

Cheerleaders & Ideologues

Today was telling.  The cheerleaders cheering the cheerleader.

Cheerleaders are mostly right as the natural trajectory for the economy and market is to grow and move higher.   It is at inflection points, when the autopilot should be off,  asset valuations are extreme, economic and political imbalances are ubiquitous, and the storm is about to hit that you want the “grown-ups” running the show.  Grown-ups with rigor, as in Stanley Fisher.  Not interns.

A cheerleader and an ideologue creates the potential for a toxic mix.

We are growing increasingly concerned about what is happening in Washington.

A Government In Perpetual Motion

We now hear of a Bolton for H.R. trade is in the mix.  That is full neocon, folks, and a potential disaster, in our opinion.

We thought the president deplored the invasion of Iraq?  Moreover, doesn’t JB’s ‘stache disqualify him?

Quotes

Now for the quotes.  Note the impeccable timing.

We leave you with some homework to determine who said it and let you decide if we are in good hands.

February 2000:   “This correction will run its course until the middle of the year. Then things will pick up again because not even Greenspan can stop the Internet economy.” 

One month later the Internet economy peaked in the form of the Nasdaq Composite losing almost 80 percent of its value in the next few years

December 2007:  “There is no recession.  Despite all the doom and gloom from the economic pessimistas, the resilient U.S. economy continues moving ahead, quarter after quarter, year after year, defying dire forecasts and delivering positive growth. In fact, we are about to enter the seventh consecutive year of the Bush boom.”

Not so resilient.   The economy was already in the midst of one of the biggest economic collapses in the country’s or world history.  

Time to really worry.