Cohn Dropping In Prediction Markets As New Fed Chair

If tax reform looks stalled, and we should find out in the next few weeks, is there any reason for Gary Cohn to stick around if he concludes he won’t be appointed Fed Chair?  We wonder.

Odds he will replace Yellen are dropping like a stone on PredictIt.   Down about 30 percent in August.  Especially after his recent comments to the Financial Times,

Gary Cohn, the top White House economic official, said the Trump administration “must do better” in condemning neo-Nazis and white supremacists following the violent protests in Charlottesville this month that sparked one of the biggest controversies of Donald Trump’s presidency.

Mr Cohn, a Jewish-American who was president of Goldman Sachs before becoming head of the White House national economic council, told the Financial Times he faced “enormous pressure” to quit after the uproar over Mr Trump’s reaction to the clashes in the Virginia university city that left one woman dead. – FT, August 25

The President has rumored to still be fuming over these comments.

  • …people close to the president said he is simmering with displeasure over what he considers personal disloyalty from National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, who criticized Trump’s responses to a deadly white supremacist rally in Charlottesville on Aug. 12.
  • The president has been quietly fuming about Cohn for the past week but has resisted dismissing him in part because he has been the face, along with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, of the administration’s tax-cut strategy.   – Washington Post, August 31

Cohn has fallen from almost a certainty toreplace Yellen to 20 percent in the prediction markets.

Add this to our event risk checklist.

If the stock market begins to fret and tank over growing worries of Cohn’s future,  we’ll,  no doubt, expect a sweet tweet from the president expressing support for Mr. Cohn.

Welcome to the new markets. Is this Kafkaesque , or what?

 

Cohn_2_Chart

.Cohn_Chart

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General Kelly Is Pissed Off

We cited a Washington Post piece in our post yesterday morning citing the growing friction between the President and his Chief of Staff,  General John Kelly,  now dubbed the Church Lady by the White House staff.   The President was quick to tweet his support for General Kelly early Friday morning.

The NY Times is out with a  piece today,  Forceful Chief of Staff Grates on Trump, and the Feeling Is Mutual,  with new information about the palace intrigue taking place at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

President Trump was in an especially ornery mood after staff members gently suggested he refrain from injecting politics into day-to-day issues of governing after last month’s raucous rally in Arizona, and he responded by lashing out at the most senior aide in his presence.

It happened to be his new chief of staff, John F. Kelly.

Mr. Kelly, the former Marine general brought in five weeks ago as the successor to Reince Priebus, reacted calmly, but he later told other White House staff members that he had never been spoken to like that during 35 years of serving his country. In the future, he said, he would not abide such treatment, according to three people familiar with the exchange.

…The question now is how long Mr. Kelly will stay, with estimates ranging from a month to a year at the most. White House officials say that Mr. Kelly has given no indication he intends to leave anytime soon.  – NY TImes, September 1

The president performed very well today and looked good in Houston, hugging and mixing it up with the victims of Hurrican Harvey, and should see a nice bump in his poll numbers.

But this new revelation by the NY Times,  if true, scares the bejesus out of us.  It should do the same to you.

The country, or, at the very least,  the White House,  is one presidential temper tantrum away from complete political chaos.   What odds are you making there will be one in the next month or two?

Add it to our event risk checklist, which we expect to trigger a decent  October correction.   But, first, maybe a blow-off buying panic in risk assets as the Goldilocks crowd gets more lathered up and shorts panic in the first-half of September.

Stay tuned.

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Global Risk Monitor – September 1

RiskMon_1RiskMon_2

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Shanghai Breakout

Man, emerging market equities are in total beast mode.

The emerging markets index MSCI Ishares ETF (EEM) is up almost 30 percent on the year.  Turkey and Argentian up almost 40 percent.  India,  Brazil, and Korea almost 20 percent.

Emerging currencies also showing strength. The dollar is weaker over 5 per cent against Mexico, Thailand, Korea, Russia, Chile, China, and South Africa.

We will have more posts on EMs next week.

Shanghai

China’s Shanghai Composite is also showing signs of life and follow through after breaking out of a year-long trading range last week. In our Week In Review post from Sunday we stated:

Watching the Shanghai for follow through. – GMM, August 27

Though not very compelling, it did.

Blow-off Before Correction?

Global equities seem to be in entering the giddy stage.  We wouldn’t be chasing up here and it does kind of feel like we may be moving into a September blow off before the correction we’re expecting in October.    Or not.

 

Shanghai_Sep1

 

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President’s Rebuttal Tweet On Gen. Kelly Conflict

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Get Shorty If The “Church Lady” Bolts La Casa Blanca

A stunning piece in the Washington Post posted last night about a potential conflict between President Trump and his Chief of Staff,  General John Kelly,  now dubbed the “Church Lady” by the White House staff.

Political risk in Washington has diminished with respect to the budget ceiling as the pols unify over the Hurricane Harvey tragedy.  The information in the article partially negates that positive,  however.

Money quotes from Washington Post piece:

  • Trump appears to pine for the days when the Oval Office was a bustling hub of visitors and gossip, over which he presided as impresario… [now] confidants privately fret about his suddenly dark moods. 
  • And some of Trump’s friends fear that the short-tempered president is on an inevitable collision course with White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly.
  • Trump chafes at some of the retired Marine Corps general’s moves to restrict access to him since he took the job almost a month ago, said several people close to the president. They run counter to Trump’s love of spontaneity and brashness, prompting some Trump loyalists to derisively dub Kelly “the church lady” because they consider him strict and morally superior.
  • “He doesn’t like how Kelly’s handling him. He’s turning on people that are very close to him.”
  • Meanwhile, people close to the president said he is simmering with displeasure over what he considers personal disloyalty from National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, who criticized Trump’s responses to a deadly white supremacist rally in Charlottesville on Aug. 12. He also has grown increasingly frustrated with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who has clashed with the president on issues including Afghanistan troop levels, the blockade on Qatar and Cuba policy.
  • This portrait of Trump as he enters what could be his most consequential month in office is based on interviews with 15 senior White House officials, outside advisers and friends of the president, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid.
  • [Roger] Stone added, “General Kelly is trying to treat the president like a mushroom. Keeping him in the dark and feeding him s— is not going to work. Donald Trump is a free spirit.”
  • The president has been quietly fuming about Cohn for the past week but has resisted dismissing him in part because he has been the face, along with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, of the administration’s tax-cut strategy.
    – Washington Post, August 31

Upshot?

1)  Gary Cohn revealed resignation risk has gone up with the new information from the article as the President may now think twice about appointing Cohn to the Federal Reserve Chair;

2)  The potential collision course with General Kelly is downright chilling and will spook markets big time if it happens;

3) There are still lots of leakers in the White House as the article reveals;

4) The knives are out in the White House for General Kelly.   Not good.

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QOTD: The Maverick

Americans recoiled from the repugnant spectacle of white supremacists marching in Charlottesville to promote their un-American “blood and soil” ideology. There is nothing in their hate-driven racism that can match the strength of a nation conceived in liberty and comprising 323 million souls of different origins and opinions who are equal under the law.

Most of us share Heather Heyer’s values, not the depravity of the man who took her life. We are the country that led the free world to victory over fascism and dispatched communism to the ash heap of history. We are the superpower that organized not an empire, but an international order of free, independent nations that has liberated more people from poverty and tyranny than anyone thought possible in the age of colonies and autocracies.

Our shared values define us more than our differences. And acknowledging those shared values can see us through our challenges today if we have the wisdom to trust in them again. – Sen. John McCain, WashPost – August 31

(QOTD = Quote of the Day)

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Super Mario’s Problem In One Picture

File under “Kafkaesque Markets.”

Super Mario's Problem_Aug 31

Source:  MacroTourist

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Month in Review – August

Global Stock Indices

All emerging markets.   Argentina up on good politics.   China breaking out through strong resistance.  Europe down on strong euro.  India stalls at resistance as RBI warns of a potential stock market bubble.  We are buyers for the long term in Indian stocks on weakness.

The Reserve Bank of India said that there are evidences of a bubble building up in Indian stock prices based on an econometric model, but there is no bubble yet since the current stock rally is driven by strong fundamentals, it said in its Annual Report. – Economic Times, August 31

 

Monthly_Stocks

Global Bond Indices

Surprising rally in bonds almost across the world.   Global economic recovery picking up and industrial metals rocking.  The Great Distortion of the global markets continue anchored in the belief real rates and inflation can stay low forever.  U.S. yield curve 15 bps flatter.  Waiting for quantitative tightening to begin in the U.S. in September.

Credit spreads widen a bit with the pick up in stock volatility.

 

Monthly_Bonds

Global Currencies

The dollar index tested and broke for a few minutes the 92 level.  Bear trap?   As we said during the week,   Draghi is going to have trouble swallowing a 1.20 euro/$.   On cue,  the ECB came out dovish last night to talk down the currency.

“The exchange rate has become a bigger issue,” one of the sources told Reuters. “It is now less favorable for an exit and a stronger argument for a muddle-through option.” – Reuters

EM currencies strong.

Look at China.  That is a big move, probably due to restrictions on capital outflows and tight monetary conditions,  in part, a bit of politics to assuage the Trump administration, but mainly an effort to limit and reverse capital flight.

Monthly_Currency

Selected Commodities

Industrial metals rocking with better China and strengthening global recovery.   Crude oil could not hold $50 and now getting hit on refinery shut ins due to Hurricane Harvey.   Corn and wheat under  pressure since the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast a larger-than-expected domestic harvest on Aug. 10.

 

Monthly_Commodities

Other Risk Indicators

Biotech finished month strong on the back of Gilead’s move into CAR-T treatment with the acquisition of Kite Pharma.   Retailgeddon continues as Amazon marches on, though some recovery at month end.    Energy can’t get off the mat and the commoidty remians range bound.

 

Monthly_Other

What Is On Our Radar

We expect risk to remain in beast mode, with a pick up in volatility,  through most of September until the Fed announces quantitative tightening (QT), which is a game changer, even though it is not new news.  Still looking for a nice sell off in October, but no bear market until higher policy rates and double-digit percent shrinkages in Fed and ECB balance sheets.  ECB and strengthening euro a wild card.

Key Charts

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Shibor_Aug31

 

 

 

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Immigration: 27% of U.S. Doctors Foreign Born

The shortage of GPs [doctors] in England has been caused by multiple factors, including doctors leaving the profession early because of an increasing workload linked to a rising population. The shortage predates Britain’s vote last year to leave the EU, but the Royal College of GPs said before the June general election that Brexit might exacerbate the shortfall.

…“There is an inherent conflict between the need to hire international staff in order to maintain public services and the Brexit-related agenda of reducing immigration,” he added.  — FT

And in the U.S.,

A new report by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) predicts that a shortage of physicians in the U.S. is going to grow worse.

The report estimates a shortfall ranging from 34,600 to 88,000 doctors by 2025, compared to what our growing and aging population may need. By 2030, the shortfall is expected to total anywhere from 40,800 to 104,900 doctors. – CBS

And this,

Healthcare is a critical part of the U.S. economy, providing jobs for millions of Americans and trillions of dollars in expenditures. However, growing health needs of baby boomers, coupled with acute shortages of health workers, are straining the sector. Unfortunately, labor force issues will be exacerbated in the coming years as retiring baby boomers strain the system and up to one-third of physicians retire because they fall into that same age category.

Currently, more than one-quarter of physicians and surgeons in the United States are foreign-born. In addition to physicians, roughly one-fifth of nurses and home health and psychiatric aides, and more than one-sixth of dentists, pharmacists and clinical technicians in the United States were foreign born in 2010. When foreign-born professionals account for 16% of all civilians employed in healthcare occupations and one-fourth of practicing physicians, the system really does depend on a functioning immigration system. There are simply not enough native-born healthcare workers to meet the growing demand–especially in the geographic areas with the greatest need. – Forbes

Stat of the Day_Aug30

 

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