The Speech – Must View

Posted on January 25, 2026 by macromon

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Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – Jan 23

Posted on January 24, 2026 by macromon

This week’s global financial landscape was characterized by intense volatility and a continued and significant rotation across asset classes. A prominent trend is the marked shift toward small-cap stocks, as investors move away from the high-valuation mega-cap technology sector that dominated the previous year. This rotation has been underscored by the notable underperformance of technology stocks in January, with investors largely shying away from the sector amid concerns over AI-related valuations and higher interest rates. Conversely, the commodities market witnessed an extraordinary surge. Silver prices have skyrocketed, rising by over 44% this month alone, while gold has also shown strong gains. Energy markets were equally explosive, with natural gas prices spiking more than 70% this week, driven primarily by a severe cold spell.

In international markets, Asian equities—particularly in Korea—continued their impressive trajectory, with Korean markets up 18% in January following a massive rally in 2025. This occurs against the backdrop of a sharply declining U.S. dollar, with the DXY index dropping 1.80% over the week. While U.S. GDP growth was revised higher to 4.4%, persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions, specifically regarding trade threats, continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Summary

  • Risk Appetite and Credit Spreads: While credit spreads remain tight historically, the current week saw a shift in investor focus toward defensive commodities and rotational equity trades.
  • Asset Performance Divergence: A clear divergence has emerged between surging precious metals and natural gas versus a “hammered” U.S. dollar and Bitcoin.
  • Equity Rotation: Investors are increasingly moving away from mega-cap technology, testing support levels in indices like the Nasdaq 100 as they seek value in other sectors.

Regional Economic Insights

  • United States: The economy remains resilient with a revised Q3 GDP of 4.4% and an Atlanta Fed Q4 Nowcast of 5.4%. However, consumer sentiment, while improving monthly, remains 20% lower year-over-year due to high prices.
  • Europe: The Eurozone is facing renewed trade and geopolitical uncertainty, with the STOXX Europe 600 ending the week nearly 1% lower. Bulgaria notably adopted the euro currency on January 1st, despite internal political turmoil.
  • Asia:
    • Korea: Remains a standout performer, with gains reaching 18% for the month of January.
    • Japan: Markets are roiled by political uncertainty and proposals for temporary food tax cuts, leading to a spike in 10-year JGB yields to 2.26%, the highest since 1997.
    • China: Growth remains uneven, with the fourth quarter of 2025 seeing the slowest pace (4.5%) since the pandemic reopening.
  • Latin America: Brazil showed significant strength with markets up 8%, even as Colombia faces potential rate hikes due to a 23% minimum wage increase.

Inflation: CPI-PPI Divergence

  • PCE and Inflation Targets: The November core PCE price index rose 0.2% monthly and 2.8% annually, remaining consistently above the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Expectations: While one-year inflation expectations eased to 4.0%, long-run expectations ticked up to 3.3%, indicating that price pressures remain a long-term concern for the FOMC.

Valuations and the “Low Fuel Tank” Risk

  • Technology Sector Pressure: Software stocks are under particular pressure due to AI concerns and a broader rotation away from the mega-cap tech cohort.
  • Market Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has fluctuated, and with major tech earnings (MSFT, AAPL, META, TSLA) and a Fed meeting scheduled for next week, the risk of a sharp repricing remains high.
  • Yield Curve Shifts: The U.S. Treasury yield curve ticked up slightly, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.25%, reflecting shifting expectations for 2026 rate cuts.

Precious Metals: Gold & Silver

  • Recent Trends: Gold surged 8% this week, while silver has seen an extraordinary 15% weekly gain, bringing its total January increase to over 44%.
  • Market Drivers: A “hammered” U.S. dollar, with the DXY index dropping 1.80%, has acted as a significant tailwind for dollar-denominated metals.
  • Forecast: Continued dollar weakness and lingering geopolitical scars from recent trade threats could sustain the “safe haven” bid for precious metals.
  • Supply/Demand Impact: While demand is rising as a hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation, the rapid monthly ascent in silver suggests potential for high volatility or a technical cooling period if the dollar stabilizes.

Energy: Natural Gas

  • Recent Trends: Natural gas prices spiked 70% this week, the most significant gain among major commodities.
  • Key Factors: Extreme price action was primarily driven by a cold spell, which significantly tightened the short-term supply-demand balance.
  • Forecast: Investors should monitor the EIA Natural Gas Inventories report on Thursday (Jan. 29) for confirmation of inventory drawdowns.
  • Supply/Demand Impact: Current demand is heavily weather-dependent; any signs of moderating temperatures could lead to a swift retracement of this week’s 70% gain.

Energy: Crude Oil

  • Market Outlook: While not matching the volatility of natural gas, crude oil remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic sentiment and the declining dollar.
  • Significant Events: The EIA Crude Oil Inventories report is scheduled for Wednesday (Jan. 28). Additionally, Friday’s earnings reports from energy giants Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) will provide critical insights into production levels and capital expenditure trends for 2026.
  • Supply/Demand Impact: Resilient U.S. economic growth (revised to 4.4% in Q3) supports the demand side, but investors remain cautious about potential shifts in global trade policy.

Industrial Commodities & Agriculture

  • Trends: Durable goods orders (forecasted to rise 5.4%) and upcoming data on manufacturing and factory orders will serve as proxies for industrial commodity demand.
  • Factors to Watch: The “AI and space race” between the U.S. and China, along with a global supply chain reset, is expected to sustain demand for industrial inputs and high-tech manufacturing materials throughout 2026.
  • Supply/Demand Impact: Protectionist surges worldwide and the risk of new tariffs (though currently tempered) create uncertainty for international trade flows and commodity supply chains

Week Ahead

The upcoming week is expected to be marked by “Higher Volatility” as investors navigate a dense schedule of high-impact earnings from the technology sector and a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting.

Major Economic Indicators

  • Durable Goods Orders (Mon, Jan. 26): Forecasted to rise 5.4% in November, driven by a rebound in Boeing orders and a broadening of investment across various industries.
  • Consumer Confidence (Tue, Jan. 27): This report will provide further insight into whether the recent improvement in sentiment can be sustained despite ongoing pressures on purchasing power.
  • EIA Crude Oil and Natural Gas Inventories (Wed & Thu, Jan. 28-29): Following massive weekly spikes in natural gas prices, these inventory reports will be critical for gauging whether supply constraints persist.
  • Trade Balance (Thu, Jan. 29): Analysts forecast a modest narrowing of the trade deficit to $23 billion, though data remains limited due to previous government disruptions.
  • Producer Price Index (Fri, Jan. 30): This wholesale inflation gauge will be closely watched for signs of “sticky” input costs that could impact future consumer prices.

Key Earnings Releases

  • Mega-Cap Technology (Tue–Thu): Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA) , and Apple (AAPL) all report this week. These results are expected to be the “primary driver of investor sentiment”.
  • Semiconductor & Software (Wed–Thu): ASML, ServiceNow, SanDisk, and Western Digital will offer a “better sense of the state of tech,” particularly regarding AI demand and memory chip market health.
  • Industrial & Transportation (Tue–Thu): Boeing (BA), General Motors (GM), Union Pacific (UNP), and UPS will provide a pulse check on manufacturing, labor, and logistics.
  • Energy & Finance (Fri): Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and American Express (AXP) will round out the week, highlighting trends in consumer spending and energy sector profitability.

Global Events & Factors

  • Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting: While no interest rate change is expected , the meeting is “in focus” as markets weigh the timing of potential cuts later in 2026.
  • International Central Bank Decisions:
    • Bank of Canada (Wed, Jan. 28): Focusing on economic fallout from trade strains with the U.S..
    • South African Reserve Bank (SARB): Analysts expect a 25-basis-point rate cut.
    • Central Bank of Colombia (Fri, Jan. 30): Expected to hike rates by 25 basis points following a massive 23% minimum wage increase.
  • Geopolitical Resilience: Market confidence remains sensitive to trade policy headlines, particularly following recent volatility surrounding Greenland and global tariff threats.
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The Best MLK Weekend Of All-Time

Posted on January 18, 2026 by macromon

In celebration of MLK Weekend, we are reposting a repost of a repost of post in honor of Dr. King, one of our most outstanding Americans, a true patriot, and a modern-day saint.  Hard to believe it’s been thirty years.

Originally Posted on January 21, 2019

During my Lehman days as a young bond strategist, the firm’s research group would do a January roadshow in many of America’s major cities to present our ideas to institutional investors.   One particular year, we were in Atlanta at end of the week and scheduled for another “greatest show on earth” in Chicago the following Tuesday.

A Weekend In The Peachtree Hyatt

Rather than flying home to New York, I decided to stay over in Atlanta and migrate north on Monday evening.   It was MLK weekend, and I wanted to attend services at the Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Martin Luther King, Jr. was baptized as a child and gave his first sermon. If my memory is correct, I believe his father also pastored the church.   His mother was shot and killed while she played the organ in that church in 1974.

Dr. King’s tomb is located just outside the side door of the church in the middle of a reflecting pool.

dr. king

Three Memories Of Ebenezer

I recall my three main takeaways from that Sunday morning.

First,  I was maybe one of ten whites out of 600-700 people sitting in the pews.  Sadly, as Dr. King said almost 60 years ago.

I think it is one of the tragedies of our nation, one of the shameful tragedies, at 11 o’clock on Sunday morning is one of the most segregated hours, if not the most segregated hour in Christian America.  – MLK, Jr  Meet the Press, April 17, 1960

Nevertheless, I felt incredibly welcome and never — not for one nanosecond —  was conscious about such a silly thing as the difference in the color of my skin.  During the greeting time, the Ebenezers made me feel so welcome and a part of their family.

Second, not to contradict Dr. King, but I believe the service started at 9:30 AM and went to almost 1:00 PM!  Maybe it was an exceptional MLK weekend service.  The pastors in the primarily white churches I have attended have trouble keeping the congregation’s attention for more than 20 minutes.

Third, the sermon differed entirely from those I had experienced in middle-class white churches.  Less doctrine, though similar theology, and more authentic life experiences.  The struggles of raising children in poverty.  Grandparents raising their grandchildren. Troubles with children with drug addiction. The struggles of being black in white America, all of the life struggles which are just as ubiquitous in the white and all communities of color.  No pretense of sinless and perfect, no holier than thou vibe, judgment, condemnation, guilt, or shaming.  All love, compassion, kindness, and forgiveness.  Just like the real Jesus.

Also, the sharing of the same joys and blessings.  New babies, college graduates, marriages, medical recoveries, and others.

“Daddy King” was referred to several times.

It truly echoed the genius and saintliness of Dr. King.

I walked away convinced the Church for the African-American community was much more — that is a considerable part of their life — than what I had experienced in white evangelical America.

Yes, maybe some of us attend more than just Sunday services, but many, such as yours truly, often do so with the dubious motive of seeking the blessings of personal peace and personal prosperity.  The community of the Church, as it is for the African-Americans, though not always, is secondary.

I spent the next day, Martin Luther King Jr Day across the street at the King Center.

More Empathy, Less “Being A Dick“

What great memories from that unforgettable MLK weekend.

I grew up in the middle-class white suburbs of Los Angeles, attending an all-white high school.  Fortunately, I had a father who was politically left of the salad fork (out of a rebellion,  I became a conservative in college),  and also spent my first 25 years playing sports, fighting in the baseball trenches with, pulling for, breaking bread, and downing brewskies with my teammates of color; or as I grew to learn colorless.

I am very thankful for those experiences.  It helped me integrate into and see the real greatness of America.

I feel sad for my many brothers and sisters who have not had the same privilege and are stuck still watching black and white television, unable or unwilling to embrace and enjoy the tremendous diversity of this great country.

Ditto for the similar ignoramuses from other races and ethnic groups.

tv

I can’t imagine eating steak and potatoes every day and every night.

Ignorance And Racism Know No Boundaries

Let me finish by qualifying all of the above.

Racism is a prominent feature of so many human societies that some evolutionary psychologists have concluded it is “natural” or “innate.”  We don’t know about that but are sure it is not just a “white thing,” a “black thing, or a “brown thing,” etc.

I have shared the story of my brother who was murdered by an undocumented worker, who stated, after stabbing him, “all anglos need to be exterminated.”   This sociopathic asshole killed my brother not because he was brown or undocumented but because he was one sick and crazy mother f$@ker.

Now, more than ever, it is time to commit to expanding our menu.  Let’s make it a point to understand and enjoy the perspectives and cultures of all the different races and ethnic groups.

Allegorically and literally, let’s eat more balaedas, falafel, babaghanoush, borscht, moussaka, and bouilli, among others.  The steak and potatoes will taste sooo much better.

Sorry to end on a note that violates the spirit of Dr. King but I can’t help myself.

Any white man (probably less so for a white woman) who thinks he knows what it is like to be an African-American growing up and living in America, has his head…well…you know where.

head

Bring it on!

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Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – Jan 16

Posted on January 17, 2026 by macromon

January market action reflects a clear rotation away from narrow mega-cap leadership toward broader equity participation, a shift that is both cyclical and allocational in nature. Small-cap stocks have emerged as standout performers, with the Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap indices significantly outperforming large-cap benchmarks. Most notably, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has outpaced the cap-weighted S&P 500 by nearly a factor of three, underscoring a broadening of market leadership rather than a deterioration in risk appetite

In contrast, technology—particularly AI-adjacent software and select mega-cap names—has lagged, as investors reassess valuation risk, competitive disruption from generative AI platforms, and the sustainability of earnings dominance. This underperformance appears less like a regime shift and more like early-year portfolio rebalancing, as institutional allocators rotate exposure following an outsized 2025 tech rally.

Outside equities, silver prices surged an extraordinary 25% in January, reflecting renewed interest in real assets amid geopolitical uncertainty, easing inflation momentum, and strong industrial demand signals. Lumber prices also jumped sharply, hinting at nascent reflationary and construction-related demand.

Geographically, Asia stands out as the strongest regional performer, with Korea, Indonesia, Japan, and the Philippines delivering impressive equity gains, supported by currency dynamics, export resilience, and improving domestic growth expectations. Overall, January’s market behavior signals rotation, not retreat, a constructive but fragile setup heading into a policy and data-heavy February.

Global Market Strategy Analysis

Cross-Asset Market Signals

  • Equity leadership is broadening, with small caps and equal-weight indices leading performance rather than mega-cap concentration

  • S&P 500 Equal Weight Index outperforming cap-weighted S&P by ~3x YTD highlights healthy internal market breadth 

  • Technology and AI-linked equities lagging, particularly software, as valuation sensitivity rises

  • Silver +25% in January, signaling renewed inflation hedging, industrial demand optimism, and geopolitical risk pricing

  • Lumber prices surged last week, reinforcing early-cycle and reflationary signals

Equity Rotation & Style Dynamics

  • Small caps “rocking” after prolonged underperformance in 2025

  • Rotation appears allocational rather than fundamental, driven by:

    • Early-year portfolio resets

    • Valuation dispersion

    • Catch-up trade dynamics

    • Too early to declare a lasting regime change; positioning is likely still fluid

AI enthusiasm remains structurally intact

  • Software names under pressure amid disruption fears

  • Mega-cap tech is experiencing valuation digestion
  • Semiconductors are more resilient than software, supported by infrastructure demand

Likely near-term consolidation before selective re-entry

Regional Equity Performance

Asia – Clear Outperformance

  • Japan: Strong equity rally on fiscal stimulus expectations and yen weakness

  • Korea: Semiconductor exports and improving global demand are driving gains

  • Indonesia & Philippines: Benefiting from EM capital inflows and domestic growth resilience

  • Asia ex-China continues to attract incremental global capital 

Europe

  • Modest gains, supported by easing inflation but capped by weak growth momentum

United States

  • Rotation-driven gains beneath flat headline indices

  • Value, small-cap, and cyclical exposure outperforming growth

Macro & Policy Backdrop

  • Markets are currently filtering out policy noise, focusing instead on:

    • Cooling but resilient U.S. inflation

    • Stable labor market

    • Earnings durability

    • Upcoming risks:

      • President Trump’s Davos speech

      • Fed leadership uncertainty

      • Shifts in rate-cut expectations could test market complacency

Strategic Takeaways

  • This is rotation, not risk-off

  • Broadening participation is constructive, but momentum is vulnerable to policy shocks

  • Commodities—especially silver—are quietly signaling macro regime hedging

  • Asia remains the cleanest relative growth and equity story in the near term

  • Maintain flexibility: early-year moves often exaggerate signals before fundamentals fully assert themselves

Week Ahead: Key Risks, Catalysts, and Market Tests

  • Policy & Central Bank Focus

    • Markets will be tested on their ability to continue filter out the noise  as several high-profile policy events approach.

    • President Trump’s Davos speech represents a key event risk, particularly around:

      • Trade rhetoric

      • Tariff policy

      • Fed independence narratives

    • Any escalation in policy uncertainty could challenge the recent risk-on rotation, especially in small caps

  • Federal Reserve & Rates

    • Recent developments have reduced the probability of near-term dovish outcomes.

    • Chair Powell’s resistance to DOJ-related pressure increases the likelihood he remains a Fed governor beyond May, reinforcing continuity.

    • Markets will closely watch Fed communications for signals on:

      • Rate-cut timing

      • Tolerance for renewed financial easing

    • A renewed rise in long-end yields could disproportionately pressure small caps after their sharp January rally.

  • Economic Data Watch

    • U.S. releases on GDP, jobless claims, housing activity, and consumer sentiment will shape near-term rate expectations.

    • Data strength is likely to be interpreted asymmetrically:

      • “Good data” may revive rate volatility

      • “Soft data” would reinforce the broadening equity trade

  • Earnings Season Acceleration

    • Upcoming earnings from tech, industrials, and consumer names will be critical in determining whether:

      • AI underperformance is a pause or a deeper reset

      • Small-cap optimism is supported by forward guidance

    • Any downside surprises in tech could further favor equal-weight and value exposures.

  • Global & Geopolitical Considerations

    • Ongoing Middle East tensions (Iran-related trade risks) remain a latent tail risk.

    • Asia-focused investors will monitor:

      • Japan’s political developments

      • Export data from Korea and China

      • EM Asia capital flow sustainability

Bottom line:
The coming week is a stress test for January’s rotation narrative. If markets can absorb policy headlines and macro data without a sharp rise in yields or volatility, the broadening trade likely persists. If not, a short-term consolidation—particularly in small caps—becomes increasingly likely.

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Back to Yalta: A Great Power Carve Up 2.0

Posted on January 3, 2026 by macromon

After this morning’s events in Caracas, a repost of last year’s piece feels not only appropriate, but unavoidable. What once looked like a theoretical great-power contest is now playing out in real time, across real countries, with real consequences.

If you’re keeping score, the framework is simple. Russia put the first run on the board by moving to take Ukraine. The United States has now answered with its own decisive move in Venezuela, reasserting hard power in its traditional sphere of influence. That makes it one apiece. And China is on deck, watching closely, calibrating responses, and preparing for what it sees as the unfinished inning: Taiwan.

This is not about moral equivalence; it’s about strategic symmetry. Each power is testing how far it can go, how costly action really is, and whether the rules of the post–Cold War order still constrain behavior. Ukraine, Venezuela, and Taiwan are not random flashpoints—they are pressure points in a global system drifting away from diplomacy and back toward spheres of influence, fait accompli politics, and great-power signaling.

Last year’s analysis anticipated this shift. Today’s headlines confirm it.

Originally posted: March 3, 2025

As Trump seems to want to isolate and cut President Zelensky out of the peace negotiations while siding with Putin’s Russia, it conjures up an image of the Big Three – Putin, Xi, and Trump — carving up the world as they see fit.  We sure hope not.  

The Trump administration has, however, embarked on a significant departure from traditional U.S. foreign policy, emphasizing unilateralism over alliances and prioritizing economic negotiations over geopolitical stability. This shift mirrors historical instances such as the Yalta Conference of 1945, where great power negotiations reshaped European borders, and the treaties following World War I that rewrote the borders in the Middle East and beyond and attempted—often unsuccessfully—to enforce a lasting peace.

Trump’s approach to Ukraine, Europe, and global alliances reflects an emerging pattern of prioritizing national interests over multilateral commitments, raising concerns about the potential reordering of global power structures.

The Trump Doctrine: A New Yalta?

At Yalta in 1945, Franklin D. Roosevelt sought to secure a postwar order based on democratic principles but had to compromise with Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, resulting in Eastern Europe falling under Soviet domination. This decision was widely criticized as a betrayal of smaller nations in favor of great power pragmatism​. A similar theme emerges in Trump’s handling of Ukraine. By shifting away from unwavering support for Kyiv and normalizing relations with Russia, the Trump administration appears willing to sideline Ukrainian sovereignty in pursuit of broader strategic objectives​.

Trump’s treatment of Ukraine aligns with the concept of “great power deals,” reminiscent of the U.S. and Soviet agreement at Yalta. The difference is that Roosevelt operated within a multilateral framework, whereas Trump has abandoned such structures in favor of direct power negotiations​. This reorientation represents a radical rethinking of U.S. commitments, raising concerns among European allies who fear becoming bargaining chips in a new geopolitical settlement.

Economic and Military Implications: The European Response

Europe’s reaction to Trump’s foreign policy echoes the aftermath of World War I when European nations struggled to establish an independent security architecture after U.S. disengagement. The Treaty of Versailles and subsequent treaties placed the burden of European security on fragile alliances, which ultimately collapsed with the onset of World War II. Similarly, Trump’s approach to Ukraine and NATO suggests a U.S. retrenchment that may leave European nations more vulnerable​.

European leaders now face a stark choice: to assert their geopolitical independence or risk being sidelined. A recent analysis indicates that defending Europe without U.S. military support would require at least 300,000 additional troops and an annual defense spending increase of €250 billion​. This suggests that European nations must urgently develop self-reliant defense mechanisms, mirroring past efforts to create European security structures in the interwar period.

The Economic Reordering: Parallels to the Interwar Period

Trump’s foreign policy also recalls the economic consequences of post-World War I diplomacy. The punitive economic measures of the Versailles Treaty fueled nationalist resentment and economic instability, leading to World War II. Similarly, Trump’s imposition of tariffs on European allies and his transactional approach to international relations risk disrupting global trade​.

His administration’s proposed “economic reordering” aims to restructure the global economy in favor of U.S. interests, pushing European nations to align with Washington’s new trade and security frameworks​. However, as history has shown, economic isolationism can backfire, as it did in the 1930s when protectionist policies deepened the Great Depression and undermined international cooperation.

Conclusion

Trump’s foreign policy represents a break from the multilateral traditions of the post-World War II order, favoring direct negotiations and economic leverage over alliance-based diplomacy. This shift echoes the compromises made at Yalta and the fragile peace efforts after World War I, both of which had long-term geopolitical consequences. If European nations do not take proactive steps toward greater autonomy in defense and diplomacy, they risk becoming passive participants in a new great power realignment. The historical lesson is clear: in an era of shifting alliances, European nations must assert their sovereignty or risk being dictated by external forces once again.

So, here’s the deal:  Putin gets Ukraine and…Xi gets Taiwan, and Trump gets Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal?  God help us. 

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2025: A Year in Review, in Charts

Posted on January 1, 2026 by macromon

2025 delivered one of those market outcomes that looks implausible until the chart forces a second glance. In a year dominated by artificial-intelligence euphoria and a powerful 13 percent appreciation of the Euro, European banks—long dismissed as structural laggards—quietly staged a remarkable resurgence. The European bank index tracked in the charts below rose by more than 80 percent on the year, when the Euro appreciation is included, decisively outperforming Nvidia and challenging the prevailing assumption that U.S. mega-cap technology was the only place to be. This divergence highlights how valuation, policy normalization, and operating leverage can be just as important as narrative momentum.

It is important to note that the charts shown reflect price performance only and exclude dividends, meaning total returns for stocks were even stronger than depicted. Together, these visuals tell a story of rotation, surprise, and the enduring danger of extrapolating consensus too far into the future.

 

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Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – Dec 26

Posted on December 27, 2025 by macromon

No commentary this week as the charts are doing all the shouting.

Heigh-Ho, Silver (and Platinum): The Great Fiat Exit of 2025

Are you actually watching this? Silver just capped an 18% weekly surge, only to be made look sluggish by Platinum’s violent 25% spike. As we head into the final days of 2025, the “Everything Rally” has officially narrowed into a “Physical Rally,” with silver closing in on $79/oz and platinum reclaiming its throne at $2,500/oz.

The Post-Mortem on the Melt-Up:

  • The “Fiat Exit”: This isn’t just a garden-variety inflation hedge. This is a full-scale exodus. Between aggressive Fed rate-cut fever and a geopolitical map that looks like a game of Risk gone wrong, investors are fleeing the paper theater for assets they can actually drop on their foot.
  • The Digital Gold Delusion: For years, we were told Bitcoin was the new gold. Yet, in the face of true global macro instability, the “crypt story” is looking a bit… skeletal. Precious metals have decisively lapped BTC this year, proving that when the world gets twitchy, capital prefers centuries-old certainty over digital allure.
  • Tangible Supremacy: In a world of naval blockades and supply-chain “oopsies,” physical scarcity and geopolitical neutrality aren’t just features—they’re the only insurance policies that matter.

The Bottom Line: While the crypto crowd waits for a software update, the boomer rocks (gold and silver) are riding away. When confidence wanes, the smart money trades pixels for physical.

Heigh-Ho, Silver! Away!

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QOTD: Beijing’s Realpolitik

Posted on December 15, 2025 by macromon

QOTD = Quote of the Day

Chinese officials have learned that the Trump administration, for all its bluster, will not follow through on its promises or its threats. – Foreign Affairs 

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Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – Dec 12

Posted on December 13, 2025 by macromon

Global markets closed the week with a clear message: policy easing is supporting risk appetite, but leadership is rotating, and stresses are emerging beneath the surface. The Federal Reserve’s December rate cut reinforced expectations that the tightening cycle is firmly behind us, triggering a steepening of the U.S. yield curve, with the 2–10 spread widening by roughly 8.3 bps, a constructive signal for banks and cyclicals, but also a sign that growth and inflation uncertainty persist.

Equities continue to broaden, with small caps (Russell 2000) and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index outperforming, underscoring investor rotation away from mega-cap tech. That rotation was accelerated by a sharp sell-off in Oracle, which reignited concerns around AI-related capital intensity and valuation discipline.

In commodities, precious metals decisively outperformed, with silver surging roughly 6% and gold adding about 2%, extending their dominance over cryptocurrencies, which lagged despite easier financial conditions. Conversely, energy markets weakened materially, led by a more than 20% collapse in U.S. natural gas prices and a notable pullback in oil.

Emerging markets delivered mixed signals: Mexico’s bond yields spiked, reflecting inflation surprises and repricing of Banxico’s terminal rate, while Vietnam’s equity market sold off sharply on liquidity concerns, highlighting uneven financial conditions across EM. Overall, the backdrop remains supportive, but increasingly fragile, as liquidity and policy optimism clash with valuation, earnings, and geopolitical risks.

Rates, Policy, and Fixed Income

  • Fed cut rates by 25 bps, reinforcing a late-cycle easing narrative while maintaining optionality.

  • Yield curve steepened meaningfully (2s–10s +8.3 bps), favoring banks and cyclicals.

  • Mexico’s sovereign yields jumped, driven by upside inflation surprises and expectations of a more hawkish end to Banxico’s easing cycle 

Equities: Rotation and Breadth

  • Russell 2000 outperformed, reflecting sensitivity to easing financial conditions.

  • S&P 500 Equal Weight index broke out, signaling broader participation beyond mega-caps.

  • Oracle shares were sharply lower, amplifying concerns over AI capex intensity and earnings durability.

  • Tech leadership softened while value and cyclicals gained traction.

Commodities and Real Assets

  • Silver surged ~6%, with gold up ~2%, extending strong relative performance versus crypto.

  • Energy commodities weakened sharply:

    • Oil fell over 4% on supply and demand concerns.

    • Natural gas collapsed more than 20%, one of the weakest assets of the week 

Emerging Markets and Global Risk

  • Vietnam equities sold off sharply, driven by domestic liquidity stress.

  • Latin America remains differentiated: Mexico shows macro resilience, but markets are repricing inflation risk.

  • Broader EM sentiment supported by tight credit spreads, yet vulnerable to policy and funding shocks

Week Ahead: Key Catalysts and Market Risks

  • U.S. Data Focus – Inflation and Growth Signals

    • CPI, retail sales, and employment data will be critical in shaping expectations for the pace and durability of Fed easing.

    • Any upside inflation surprise could challenge the recent yield-curve steepening narrative and pressure small caps and financials.

    • Markets remain sensitive to whether soft labor data reflects a benign slowdown or a more material demand deterioration.

  • Central Banks – Global Policy Calibration

    • Attention turns to the Bank of Japan, where a rate hike could push Japanese yields higher and transmit upward pressure to global long-end rates.

    • The ECB and BoE are expected to strike a cautious tone, reinforcing the theme of late-cycle fine-tuning rather than aggressive easing.

    • In EM, Banxico’s communication will be watched closely after Mexico’s inflation surprise and yield spike.

  • Equities – Rotation vs. Valuation

    • Investors will test whether small-cap and equal-weight outperformance can persist if long-term yields drift higher.

    • Continued weakness in mega-cap tech—particularly around AI capex discipline—could reinforce rotation, but also increase overall volatility.

    • Earnings updates from cyclically sensitive sectors will help validate (or undermine) the broadening rally.

  • Commodities – Diverging Signals

    • Precious metals momentum remains constructive amid policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

    • Energy markets remain vulnerable, with natural gas oversupply and weak demand dynamics likely to persist unless weather or geopolitical factors intervene.

  • Risk Framing

    • Markets enter the week supported by liquidity and momentum, but with thin tolerance for negative surprises.

    • The dominant question remains whether policy easing can sustain growth without reigniting inflation—or whether volatility rises as that balance is tested.

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Tilly Norwood & AI Take On Hollywood

Posted on December 7, 2025 by macromon
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