S&P500 Plays Range Rover, Waits on the Shanghai

As we posted yesterday, the S&P500 appears to be working off an overbought condition by trading in a relatively tight range between 1306 and 1333.   A break of 1306 could take the index back to 1277, which is key support.  The S&P500 is up 4.67 percent year-to-date.

Monday will interesting as the Shanghai Composite begins trading after a week holiday celebrating the Year of the Dragon.  The Hang Seng was up 1.95% for the shortened week after traders returned on Thursday.  Can the Shanghai break out of its downward channel?

We added to some Korea, EWY, over the weekend as a beta play in the event that it does.  Stay tuned.

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Posted in China, Equities, Global Stock Performance | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Weekly Eurozone Watch: Italy below 6 percent, €/$ Squeezola

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Stratfor: Eurozone Prepares to Eject Greece

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Lagarde: The Trillion Dollar Woman and Best IMF Chief Ever?

We like this woman  We think she could be the best IMF Chief ever.    Stay tuned.

Newsweek:

In a dramatic speech in Berlin this week, the IMF chief warned that the world could soon face another Great Depression, calling for a $1 trillion firewall in lending resources. As the world gathers in Davos to discuss the crisis, Lagarde talks exclusively to Newsweek’s Christopher Dickey about her plan.

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Greece debt talks come down to the wire

It’s a done deal.  Everything else is noise.  Seriously, do you think the deal will tank over a couple of basis points?

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

S&P500 Trying to Work Off Overbought Condition

After breaking through its relatively tight short-term trading range on yesterday’s Fed announcement, the S&P500 ran out of gas at 1333.   Our best guess is that in the short run the S&P500 trades in a range of 1306-1333 as it tries to work off the overbought condition.

A break of the lower bound at 1306 could take the index back to 1277.  Stay tuned.

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Posted in Equities, Global Stock Performance | Tagged , | 4 Comments

The U.S. Wage Gap

Interesting chart from the BLS on the U.S. wage gap by race, age, and gender.  Whatever the cause, it shows the U.S. still has a lot of work to do in closing these gaps through increasing the relative productivity of each group.

This makes fertile ground for politicians to divide and conquer the electorate.  The wage differentials don’t feel as acute when wealth is increasing, such as during a stock or housing boom and are magnified during busts.

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Demographics, Economics, Employment | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Merkel tells Davos that Europe must reform

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Blast Off!

Thanks, Ben.  We were getting worried there.  Cash gold is up $30, after hitting a high of $1,705.    Next up LTRO2.  Always with a stop.

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Posted in Gold, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Romney’s Gift from Bernanke

Mitt Romney just received a huge campaign gift from Ben Bernanke as he moves to the Florida primary.    The Fed just announced they will continue to flog savers  — i.e., Florida retirees who live off CD income, and we’re not talking Credit Default swaps! — possibly into 2014.   Ouch!

This is one reason Ron Paul has done so well in the primaries to the surprise of many,  in our opinion.   Wonder if Mitt’s advisers are smart enough to pick up on it?   You think?

Talk about divisive government.   We have policies, now institutionalized, that punish savers and subisidize debtors,  many of which have made very poor capital allocation decisions and/or have lived beyond their means.    Looks like the Fed won’t be satisfied until they turn all the widows and orphans into gold speculators.

All in the name of trying to improve the housing market.  But when was  the last time housing bottomed when interest rates were effectively at zero or negative?  Rates have only one way to go in a no bubble economy and wil move up big when the repression ends and housing prices generally follow interest rates.

Of course, if you believe big inflation is coming, you’ll rush to buy hard assets.  But to have big sustained inflation,  wages need to rise.   That is, unless, of course,  people lose confidence in the paper currency and money demand collapses.

We can only conclude the Fed wants to generate another bubble.   Enjoy the ride and let’s hope we can jump off before the train wreck.

We’re not complaining cause as we had/might/will/have  a big position in gold to try and protect our savings.  But, do you honesty think the retirees in Florida living off the 0.2% they earn on their CDs are sitting in front of trading screen whipping and driving in the gold market?

Finally,  why do we have this funny feeling the sovereign debt crisis will hit the U.S. shores before the November  election.   Modern Monetary Theory aside — which states deficits don’t matter as the government is not revenue constrained when it has access to a printing press and inflation remains low.  We will debate this in a later post — it’s coming, folks.   Maybe to Japan first.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Japan, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments