Ron Paul Fan Club

Wow! Our mailbox was packed with lots of Paulistas coming to the defense of the Congressman over the misinterpretation of our recent post about the bill he introduced to cancel Treasury debt held by the Fed.    In no way were we making a political statement for or against Rep. Paul and was not accusing him of being xenophobic.  Pleeeeeeeazzzzeee!

In fact,  we think Mr. Paul understands monetary policy and the causes of the current crisis better than anyone else in Congress.  We agree with much of what he has to say, which seems right from  Charles Kindleberger, one of our gurus and heroes.

What we meant is that we are in such bizarre times it wouldn’t  surprise us to see some xenophobic Congressman introduce legislation to cancel the U.S. debt  held by foreigners.  Getting it passed is another thing.  This happened many times during the LDC debt crisis in Latin America, by the way.  Are we clear now?

 

Posted in Monetary Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged | 1 Comment

Picture of the Day: Gold Fever, Everywhere!

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H.R. 2768 Would Cancel $1.6 TN in Treasury Debt Held by Fed

The Hill reports Rep. Ron Paul introduced legislation on Monday to cancel the $1.6 trillion of federal government debt held by Federal Reserve.   The Hill writes,

Paul has argued for the last few weeks that the idea represents a quick way to make the growing fiscal crisis more manageable. Under his bill, H.R. 2768, the $1.6 trillion that the Treasury owes to the Federal Reserve would disappear.

The Federal Reserve began buying Treasury bonds in earnest late last year as part of its effort to keep long-term interest rates down. But Paul has argued that Fed purchases of Treasury debt represent a debt that the government owes to itself, and one that also leads to an unwanted and inflationary increase in the money supply…

“If the federal government cannot cut spending and bring the budget back into balance, the Fed undoubtedly will be forced to simply monetize trillions of dollars in Treasury debt, which is nothing more than a stealth form of default,” Paul said back in May.

Wow!   Our Asian creditors better beware of xenophobic Congressmen.  What Bizarro times in which we live.

Posted in Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 7 Comments

Trannie Swan Dive to Take Down Crude Oil

The Dow Transportation Index was down almost 4 percent today and if there is any silver lining  in the current market turmoil is that Trannies usually lead crude down, which will drop gas prices.  The chart below shows the 12.2 percent swan dive in the Dow Transports since July 7th with crude oil barely moving.  We’re expecting a catch-up trade to the downside for crude oil in the next few days.

If oil falls,  the price of gas falls, which acts as a tax cut for the consumer — the good kind of stimulus!   See here for our gas price sensitivity matrix on consumer budgets.   A person who  drives 70 miles per day, for example, saves around $1,500 on an annual basis for every $1.00 decline in the price of gasoline.    All bets off if the Fed cranks up QE3.

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Posted in Charts, Crude Oil, Economics, Energy | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Quote of the Day: Markets and the Debt Deal

“They told me if I voted against the debt ceiling bill the stock market would tank and gold would soar.  I voted against the deal and they were sure spot on!” — Unknown Congressman

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Bank of Korea buys gold – Reuters

Reuters reports that Korea’s central bank bought 25 tonnes of gold over the past two months.  It was the first purchase in more than a decade.  Reuters writes,

The Bank of Korea said in a statement its latest gold purchase was valued at $1.24 billion. It did not say whether it had bought gold bullion or funds.

At 25 tonnes of gold, equivalent to 803,769 ounces, the average price paid comes to $1,543 an ounce, based on Reuters calculations.

Not sure what this signals, but pretty certain the BoK won’t be flipping it out anytime soon. We’ve been all over the Central Bank/gold story long before it became chic.  See here and here.

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Posted in Currency, Gold, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 1 Comment

What’s Keeping Risk Managers Up at Night

The latest Bubble Risk Bulletin from the Society of Actuaries is well worth your time.  It focuses on China’s inflation rate and the risk of a hard landing.

As risk managers, actuaries consider China’s inflation a
serious emerging risk. Underscoring this concern, the 2010 Emerging Risks Survey by the Society of Actuaries (SOA) found that 41 percent of respondents predicted a Chinese economic hard landing as the emerging risk that will have the greatest impact over the next few years.

The piece points to three major risks that companies should consider:

1)   If China continues to lose its ability to produce goods at a significant cost advantage to western economies, global companies will scramble to find other producers of cheap goods typically supplied by China;
2)  Cooling of China’s economy and continued slowdown in import growth could put pressure on companies dependent on demand from the world’s most populous country;
3)  As Chinese consumers and businesses continue to feel the squeeze, rioting and social unrest could threaten business both in and outside of China. Actuary Max Rudolph estimates that China must maintain a growth rate of 8 percent or more in order to maintain social stability, and warns that big problems lie ahead if inflation dampens the Chinese economy.

Check it out.  Your P&L may depend on it.    Hat tip, E.M.!

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The Power of Rick Santelli

Wonder if the Great Santelli ever thought he’d have this much power.  His rant on the floor of the CME in February 2009 is widely recognized as giving birth to the Tea Party movement.   Hat tip, John Porter!

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Politics | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Week in Review: Deal, Now What?

Almost everything that happened last week is irrelevant given what looks like a U.S. debt deal.  What we’re watching is how the relief rally holds and whether the Friday’s poor GDP data was a game changer.  Looking under the surface of the price action last week, it appears the market is starting to fret over the coming fiscal contraction into a soft economy.  Note, the Russell was hammered the hardest, bonds rallied, and most commodities were lower.

Another area of focus will be the European Debt crisis.  The CAC was hit the hardest of the non-U.S. equity indices as French banks are perceived to hold the most sovereign exposure to the periphery.   It will be interesting to see if gold can bounce from the knee jerk sell-off over the debt deal.  Also watching the 1-month T-Bill yield to see if it comes back in.   Good luck.

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Global Trend Indicators

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