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Tag Archives: China
Tariff Reality Roasts the White House
On April 6, the Global Macro Monitor wrote: The strategy’s incoherence is evident in absurd measures such as, for example, a tariff on coffee, an import for which the U.S. lacks viable domestic production except de minimis production in Hawaii and … Continue reading
On Becoming Argentina
Today’s Drudge Report headline, with George Washington staring from a dollar bill under the headline “NATL DEBT $37 TRILLION” and accusations of falsified inflation data, encapsulates the growing perception that America’s fiscal and political trajectory is veering toward Banana Republic … Continue reading
Tariffs and Toothpaste: The Inflation You Didn’t Expect
“This is a highly fluid situation and we’ll need to manage quantity decisions as we measure the price elasticity of impacted items,” underscoring how Walmart adjusts its inventory and pricing strategy based on customers’ sensitivity to price changes.” – John … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – July 11
Markets wrapped up the week with a paradoxical sense of calm, even as trade tensions re-escalated on multiple fronts. At the center of the uncertainty is President Donald Trump’s hardline tariff rhetoric, including threats of sweeping new levies on the … Continue reading
Gagging Dr. Copper and Distorting the Economy
…AI data centers are likely to require enormous amounts of copper to meet their capacity needs… – Barron’s, July 9, 2022 Back in September 2022, Global Macro Monitor made the call: “If you are not buying copper hand-over-fist here, at … Continue reading
Straight to $120: The TACO Trade Returns
In 30 minutes, crude oil futures will flicker to life, and this isn’t just another session. With tensions between Israel and Iran hitting kinetic levels, traders are watching the Strait of Hormuz like it’s the Nasdaq in March 2020. One … Continue reading
Yachts and Tent Cities: How Globalization Helped Fuel Wealth and Backlash
The juxtaposition is stark. As Bloomberg reports Wall Street is pouring billions into marinas for ever-larger yachts, the BBC reminds us that U.S. homelessness reached a record high in 2024. Winners and Losers of Free Trade This contrast, in part, … Continue reading
From Opium to Chips: The Long War Behind Trade Wars
This one’s a must-view, folks. Not just because it’s smart and informative (it is), but because if you want to understand where this global trade war is headed, you need to understand where we’ve been. We’ve been here before, same … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 23
Last week’s Global Risk Monitor (GRM) warned of potential instability in global tariff negotiations, and unfortunately, those concerns proved prescient. Markets stumbled under the weight of fiscal volatility, erratic policy pronouncements, and renewed trade threats—all driven by the chaotic and … Continue reading
HOTD: Back to Liberation Day?
HOTD = Headline of the Day As we suspected in yesterday’s Global Risk Monitor, recent developments confirm a deteriorating trajectory in U.S. trade negotiations. Today’s Financial Times headline underscores the hardening U.S. stance, signaling heightened tariff risks for non-cooperative trade … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 