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Tag Archives: China
Real Gas Prices Approaching 1918 Peak
Yes, 1918! This is one incredible chart from the American Petroleum Institute illustrating the secular decline in real gas prices for the past century with episodes of periodic price spikes, which lasted a decade or so. So what was it … Continue reading
Posted in BRICs, Charts, China, Commodities, Crude Oil, Monetary Policy, Real Estate
Tagged China, Globak Imbalances, Real Gas Prices
2 Comments
China blocks the word “Egypt” on Twitter-like sites
This is one reason why we believe the Renminbi will never be a serious contender as a reserve currency. Full liberalization of the capital account results in a loss of independence and control and it’s hard to see the … Continue reading
2011 Risk: China Watch
Getting China right in 2011 will make or break the P&L this year. The direction of the China’s economy will determine the direction of many markets, including commodities and emerging equities. We’re still trying to get a handle on the … Continue reading
Posted in BRICs, China, Economics, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged BRIC, China, Monetary Policy
4 Comments
Risk 2011: Fate of Commodities in China’s Hands
We begin our analysis with a little perspective on how we view the crisis. The pre-crisis global aggregate demand was primarily driven by an over leveraged U.S. consumer, who was spending “fake wealth” created by a housing bubble financed by … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk
Tagged China, Hang seng, Hard Landing, Shanghai, Soft Landing
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Yuan Set for Almost 10% Real Appreciation in 2010
We find it interesting there is very little mention of China’s real exchange rate in the media. With official inflation in China set to outpace that in U.S. by 5 percent this year, coupled with a nominal appreciation of the … Continue reading
Posted in BRICs, China, Monetary Policy
Tagged China, Exhcange Rate, Inflation, Renminbi, RMB, Yuan
2 Comments
China Rate Hike: Four Markets to Watch
Fearsome Foursome We’re watching the reaction in four markets to gauge how the Christmas gift from the Kings of the East will affect global risk appetite. The People’s Bank of China increased both the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, Commodities, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy
Tagged Australia, Bovespa, China, China Interest Rate Hike, Copper, Hang seng, Kospi, Monetary Policy, Nikkei, Oil, Shanghai
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THICK AS A BRIC – U.S. Stocks Outperform Star E.M.s
To the surprise of many, the U.S. stock indices are set to outperform those of the beloved BRICs in 2010. As of December 23rd, China and Brazil are down for the year with the Russian RTS the top performer, up … Continue reading
Posted in BRICs, Charts, China, Currency, Equities, Uncategorized
Tagged BRICs, China, Currencies, Equities, U.S. Stocks
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Hang Seng Index – Indicator Species for Global Risk?
We like to look at Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index as the “indicator species” for global risk appetite. Over our 25 years of trading, we have noticed that the Hang Seng tends to lead most risk markets and is … Continue reading
Posted in Charts, China, Equities
Tagged China, Equities, Hang seng, Indicator Species, S&P500
21 Comments
Shanghai Watch
We’re are watching to see if the Shanghai Composite can hold its 200-day moving average right around 2,800. There is widespread speculation the People’s Bank of China will raise interest rates this weekend for the second time in the tightening … Continue reading
Posted in China, Commodities, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy
Tagged China, China Interest Rate Hike, Equities, Shanghai Composite
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China Rate Hike This Weekend?
The China Securities Journal, not citing a source, says the timing is right for a rate hike this weekend. It would be the second of the current tightening cycle. Reuters reports, “With reference to the central bank’s record of … Continue reading
Posted in China, Commodities, Crude Oil, Equities, Gold, Monetary Policy
Tagged China, Copper, Crude Oil, Interest rate, Shanghai Composite
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Global Macro Monitor 