Tag Archives: Obama

Cliff Diving – Day 14

Posted on November 29, 2012 by macromon

This market wants to rally. It certainly feels that way after yesterday’s trading — big downdraft at the open only to reverse and close up big and at the highs — coupled with today’s resilience after speaker Boehner’s negative comments.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Fiscal Cliff Monitor | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Sound of Breaking Glass

Posted on November 8, 2012 by macromon

Friday is moving day. The Fearsome Foursome of U.S. stock indices all closed below their 200-day moving average today.  The President is due to speak tomorrow at 1 PM and Speaker Boehner rumored press conference at 11 AM. The Washington … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Presidential Polls and Prediction Markets

Posted on October 13, 2012 by macromon

Great piece by PBS NewsHour  on divining the polls and predicting the next POTUS.   Ray Fair’s economic model is fascinating. BTW,  Romney’s probability of becoming the next POTUS  has doubled in the past few weeks at Intrade.  The VEEP debate … Continue reading →

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Romney Tops Obama in Latest WaPost/ABC Poll

Posted on March 12, 2012 by macromon

The results of the latest WashPost/ABC poll are a bit surprising and should have the White House a little worried, Public disapproval of President Obama’s handling of the economy is again on the rise, alongside increasing gas prices. One political … Continue reading →

Posted in Politics | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Does the Solar ETF Reflect the Chances of Obama 2.0?

Posted on January 18, 2012 by macromon

Take a look at the Solar ETF’s performance over the past couple of years.   We, along with the President and most Democrats, were all lathered up about the “Green Economy” leading us into a new economy.    What a disaster! Granted … Continue reading →

Posted in Clean Tech, Energy, Policy | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

It’s Beginning to Look A Lot Like…1971 [updated]

Posted on December 4, 2011 by macromon

The Global Macro Monitor posted several pieces earlier in the year about the Presidential Stock Cycle.  See here, here, and here.   The third year of a first term President is the strongest year in the cycle.  The table illustrates … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Gold, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

It’s Beginning to Look A Lot Like…1971

Posted on November 30, 2011 by macromon

The Global Macro Monitor posted several pieces earlier in the year about the Presidential Stock Cycle.  See here, here, and here.   The third year of a first term President is the strongest year in the cycle.  The table illustrates … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Euro | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Components of the 10-Year Treasury Yield

Posted on April 13, 2011 by macromon

An interesting chart from the IMF showing the components of the 10-year Treasury yield.   Note how oxymoronic credit risk (in pink)  crept into the “risk-free” 10-year rate starting around the collapse of Bear Sterns.   The IMF opines on what has … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

While Washington (and the Fed) Fiddle…..

Posted on April 8, 2011 by macromon

Sorry about the hiatus.  We’ve been working on a special project that could be big and will share when and if possible. Thought we’d start by re-posting our gas price sensitivity analysis to show the cost of the U.S. government’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Commodities, Muni Bonds | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment