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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Monthly Archives: June 2017
Did Jacques Chirac Wreck A Plan To Exile Saddam to Saudi?
File this one under, “What If.” We have a very good source who tells us that the U.S. and the major European and Arab powers had a plan to exile Saddam Hussein to Saudi Arabia before the Iraq war began … Continue reading
Posted in Crude Oil, Geopolitical, Uncategorized
Tagged Exile, France, Iraq War, Jacques Chirac, Saddam Hussein
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Emerging Market Dollar Bonds: An Option Based Analysis
In my prior life I used to trade emerging market (EM) bonds and came up with the following analytical framework using options analysis to understand and teach the basic fundamental principles of how to value EM hard currency bonds. The … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized
Tagged Brazil, China, Emerging Market Bonds, International Reserves, Mexico, Option Based Analysis, Russia, Venezuela
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Global Risk Monitor – June 16
Click on table to enlarge and for better resolution
Posted in Daily Risk Monitor, Uncategorized
Tagged bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global equity markets, Performance, Stocks
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Happy Fathers Day! We’ve Got Some Wood to Chuck
The last words my father spoke to me before he died in 1996 was, [“Gregor], somebody is going to have to do something to help the poor.” Fast forward to 2017. Never has the wealth gap in America been so … Continue reading
We Call B.S. On The ‘Bots Again!
Before hitting the hay we need to call a big B.S. on the bastard ‘bots from Rip (Off) City. They screwed us again yesterday (June 14) in crude oil futures. First, before we get into the trade, a little … Continue reading
The New Bond Math
Don’t you just love his homework assignment?
Reflexivity And Why The Fed Must Sell The Long End
The yield curve is flattening like a pancake. Tightening cycles tend to do that. Furthermore, the effective float of 10-year and longer U.S. notes and bonds is relatively small and greatly distorts the bond market signal. We have written … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Economics, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Bond markets, Monetary Policy, yield curves
31 Comments
Of Course, There’s No Inflation. NOT!
Okay, before the emails hit – it’s peak load pricing or a relative price increase. There, satisfied? Buyer pays $133K for two courtside tickets to Game 5 of NBA Finals A person paid $133,000, including fees, for two floor seats … Continue reading
Posted in Demographics, Economics, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized
Tagged Golden State Warriors, Inflation
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The Pinball Wizards Romp!
Just to understand what high expectations we have for the Golden State Warriors in the Bay Area, I am a little deflated because the Dubs didn’t go 16-0 in the playoffs. Tough to live up to those expectations, no? But, … Continue reading
Posted in Sports, Uncategorized
Tagged Golden State Warriors, Kevin Durant, The Pinball Wizards
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