Yearly Archives: 2018

Swan Lake – June 13

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM The Euro swans continue to stabilize.   Barry Eichengreen out … Continue reading

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S&P Hesitates At Key Level

The S&P500 looks hesitant to take out the key  .764 Fibonacci retracement level at 2792.59 before the Fed and ECB announcements.  Note the back-to-back Doji candlesticks. When and if the swing high of the correction at 2801.90 clears, the technical … Continue reading

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The Bund With A Draghi Tattoo

The consequences for global markets of an end to ECB QE will be much bigger than those associated with the end of the Fed’s QE –  Guillermo Tolosa, Oxford Economics Huge ECB meeting on Thursday.   Will Mario Draghi announce a path to normalize monetary … Continue reading

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The action-movie trailer Trump played to Kim Jong-un

If only it were as easy as in the movies… Reporters were shown a video ahead of Donald Trump’s press conference in Singapore, which the US president said he had played it to Kim Jong-un and his aides toward the … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 12

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM Euro sovereign spreads were stable today.  The Italy … Continue reading

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Major Holders Of The U.S. Corporate Bond Market

Summary Bullets The size of the U.S. corporate bond market, as measured by the Fed’s Flow of Funds, totals $13.1 trillion at the end of Q1 2018 It includes $10.2 trillion of domestic issues and $2.8 trillion of foreign issues … Continue reading

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De-escalation Of Tensions

Always a good thing.  Here’s to hoping that the lives of our Korean brothers and sisters both in the north and south will improve dramatically with respect to a lasting peace and standard of living. Nothing’s gonna stop them now. … Continue reading

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Tweet of the Day: Decency Still Alive

MADA! This high school pitcher chose to hug his childhood friend instead of celebrate his championship-clinching strikeout. Story: https://t.co/omJqeRk899 pic.twitter.com/gIP5OFHTcp — Sports Illustrated (@SInow) June 11, 2018

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Swan Lake – June 11

We are not discussing any proposal to exit the euro. The government is determined to avoid the materialisation of market conditions that push us towards an exit in any way.  –  Giovanni Tria,  Italian finance minister, June 11 Italian and Euro … Continue reading

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Game Theory And Complex Decision Making

Very interesting lecture by game theorist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita.  Money quote:  “Not pie in the sky to use rigorous logic and evidence…to have an affect on really hard policy questions.”   Game theory. Nice story about Honest Abe, “Abraham Lincoln founded … Continue reading

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