Author Archives: macromon

HOTD: Back to Liberation Day?

HOTD = Headline of the Day As we suspected in yesterday’s Global Risk Monitor, recent developments confirm a deteriorating trajectory in U.S. trade negotiations. Today’s Financial Times headline underscores the hardening U.S. stance, signaling heightened tariff risks for non-cooperative trade … Continue reading

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Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 16

Financial markets continued to rebound this week, buoyed by temporary trade de-escalations and looser financial conditions. However, beneath the surface of this rally lies a landscape of historically elevated valuations and persistent uncertainty. Market participants should temper optimism, as the … Continue reading

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Tudor Jones: Stocks to Make New Lows

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Global PMI: Growth at 17-month Low

Key Takeaways: Global economic growth slowed in April 2025, with the Composite PMI falling to 50.8—its lowest in 17 months and below the long-term average. Service sector expansion weakened significantly, while manufacturing remained tepid with only slight growth in consumer … Continue reading

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Summers on Trump, Tariffs, and Threats to the Economy

This is a long interview, but an excellent one.  It’s worth your time.

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Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 2

This week, global equities extended their recovery, buoyed by rising optimism over potential U.S.–China trade negotiations. Though no formal talks or trade agreements have been signed and most tariffs remain in place—including broad-based global levies—markets responded positively to U.S. administration … Continue reading

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S&P 500 Key Levels – April 30

Equity markets extended their rebound today, bouncing smartly from a sharp early morning sell-off. The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since the recent correction, marking a notable shift in sentiment. Based on where futures are trading this evening, … Continue reading

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Tariffing Santa Claus?

Struggling families may find they can’t afford presents this Christmas — or worse, they may face empty shelves altogether — thanks to Trump’s tariff policies. And really, what’s the point? It’s hard to imagine a sudden surge of American elves … Continue reading

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Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – April 25

Global markets staged an impressive rebound this week, fueled by growing optimism that trade tensions between the United States and China may soon ease and that some bilateral trade deals are imminent.  Investors eagerly latched onto comments from U.S. Treasury … Continue reading

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QOTD: The Fog & Confusion of a Trade War

QOTD: Quote of the Day What does this administration exactly want? Do they want a new trade deal? Do they want tariffs? We just don’t know,” – Eelco Heinen, finance minister of the Netherlands.

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