Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Chanos: “Not bearish enough on China”

Posted on May 25, 2011 by macromon

Wonder what the Goldie commodity traders think when they listen to Jim Chanos?  Or do they?  Think or listen? (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Video | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Did the Gold/Silver Ratio Signal Risk Off?

Posted on May 23, 2011 by macromon

Many have written about the gold/silver ratio as a leading indicator of risk and equity appetite (see here and here) so we won’t take your time explaining the relationship.   We do point out in our chart the speculative blow … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Equities, Global Stock Performance, Gold | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Quote(s) of the Day: Living in (Sur)reality

Posted on May 18, 2011 by macromon

“Greece is solvent” — Juergen Stark,  ECB Chief Economist ¡Defenderé el peso como un perro! – “I will defend the peso like a dog!” – José López Portillo,  President of Mexico 1976-82 Liquid?  Yes.  Solvent?  No, unless Greece is willing … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Quote of the Day, Quotes, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Chart of the Day: Europe’s Runaway Sovereign Debt

Posted on May 17, 2011 by macromon

Great chart from the Der Spiegel website:

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

China’s Ghost Cities

Posted on May 16, 2011 by macromon

The following video is the first of the great series on China’s ghost cities that Bloomberg is running this week.  Getting China right is key to your P&L and the direction of many markets, including emerging equities and commodities.   We’re … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Commodities, Equities | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The Weekend Read: McSwan Watch

Posted on May 13, 2011 by macromon

Chinese speculators have emerged as a big driver of silver’s spectacular rally and subsequent crash with trading in the metal in Shanghai soaring nearly 30-fold since the start of the year. The commodity, nicknamed “the devil’s metal” for its wild … Continue reading →

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Euro Swan Dives; Eichengreen Nails It

Posted on May 11, 2011 by macromon

The Euro is down big again on debt fears/confusion/politics.   Europe needs a plan and we point to Barry Eichengreen’s (our bet for next year’ Nobel Prize)  article posted on Project Syndicate this morning. There is a fear in Europe and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Did Trichet Hear the PIGs Squealing?

Posted on May 5, 2011 by macromon

Wow, what a swan dive!  The Euro fell a rare five handles and 3 percent against the dollar in just twenty-four hours as ECB President,  Jean-Claude Trichet, seemed to back away from his previous hawkish rhetoric at the Bank’s press … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Charts, Commodities, Crude Oil, Currency, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Seven Days in May?

Posted on May 5, 2011 by macromon

We noted last night only four other times in the past fifty years has the S&P500 opened May with three consecutive down days.   We find this type analysis great cocktail chat, at best interesting, but not very actionable.  Nevertheless, today’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Equities | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Chart of the Day: Dr. Copper Falls Through the Ice

Posted on May 5, 2011 by macromon

Dr. Copper broke through its support at 4.10 and is below 4.00 for the first time since early December.   Lots of flakes in this chart as head and shoulder patterns are ubiquitous.   Copper is a very crowded trade and some … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Dollar, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 3 Comments