Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

The Yoke is Hard and the Debt Burden is Heavy

Posted on October 30, 2010 by macromon

We found this table from Brookings very interesting.  The net public debt per worker of the Advanced Economies in the G20 has increased from US$33K in 2007 t0 US$50.2 in 2010, an increase of 50 percent and projected to grow … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, China, Fiscal Policy, News, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Robert Prechter’s 100 Predictions – 7 years later

Posted on October 28, 2010 by macromon

Here are 100 predictions that Elliot Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter, made in October 2003.  As my econ professor once said, “if you’re going to forecast, forecast a lot and forecast often.” No mention of the rise of Apple or the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Currency, Equities, Geopolitical, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk, Whales | Tagged , | 10 Comments

Rare Earth Day 3.0

Posted on October 27, 2010 by macromon

The Rare Earths continue to rock today in a down market as the story unfolds.  Germany announced yesterday the rare earth supply shortage is starting to hit their industrial base.  The Chinese canceled a three-way high level meeting with Japan … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China, Commodities, Geopolitical, Gold, Rare Earth Elements | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Did the Chinese Drop a Rare Earth Trade Bomb?

Posted on October 20, 2010 by macromon

Call us paranoid, but what would you conclude from the following headlines: Oct. 15:  U.S. launches trade investigation into China’s green tech sector – Xinhua Oct 19:  China to limit exports of ‘rare earth’ minerals vital to energy tech – … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China, Currency, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Fed creating “grave distortions” – Brazil Central Bank

Posted on October 18, 2010 by macromon

Brazil is considering additional measures to keep the Real from appreciating  any further.  We like the Economist’s Big Mac Index, which is based on the concept of purchasing-power parity, to get a sense of the over/undervaluation of a currency.  The … Continue reading →

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The Greatest Trade Ever?

Posted on October 15, 2010 by macromon

Check out Bespoke’s great table of Credit Default Swap (CDS) prices.   We don’t trade CDS, but doesn’t Long China/Short Japan,  straight up,  seem like the greatest trade ever? Or just outright short at 53 bps?   Japan’s public funding requirement is almost … Continue reading →

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Chinese Solar Spanked on US Trade Rep Announcement

Posted on October 15, 2010 by macromon

Holders of Chinese solar stocks got a little taste of what a trade war could feel like.  Trina Solar fell more than 9 percent as U.S. Trade Representative, Ron Kirk, announced his office has launched an investigation into the Chinese … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China, Currency, Equities, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

“All that liquidity ends up not where it is supposed to be…”

Posted on October 13, 2010 by macromon

Great CNBC interview (click for video) with British historian, Niall Ferguson.  It’s worth the 5 minutes of your time.  We’re amazed how well Ferguson understands the global economy and articulates the risks better than many trained economists.   Money quotes: “There … Continue reading →

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Fed, ECB throwing world into chaos – Stiglitz

Posted on October 5, 2010 by macromon

These are the headlines from an earlier Reuters report.   Joe Stiglitz is one smart dude (OSD) and was the World Bank’s chief economist during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 1998 Russian Debt Default.   He says the ultra-loose monetary policy … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, China, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Geopolitical, Gold, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Breakup of the Euro isn’t unthinkable – Peer Steinbrueck

Posted on October 4, 2010 by macromon

Peer Steinbrueck, who served as finance minister under Angela Merkel from 2005 to 2009, has published, Unterm Strich (“On Balance”), his insider view of the financial crisis. It looks to be a fascinating read.  Bloomberg has a great first look: … Continue reading →

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