Category Archives: Bonds

The New Bond Math

Posted on June 15, 2017 by macromon

Don’t you just love his homework assignment?

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Reflexivity And Why The Fed Must Sell The Long End

Posted on June 13, 2017 by macromon

The yield curve is flattening like a pancake.   Tightening cycles tend to do that. Furthermore, the effective float of 10-year and longer U.S. notes and bonds is relatively small and greatly distorts the bond market signal.   We have written … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Economics, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 31 Comments

Fed Ownership of Yield Curve and Balance Sheet Reduction

Posted on May 9, 2017 by macromon

Here you have it, folks, a one stop chart. The chart below shows the total outstandings of Treasury bonds and notes,  the Fed ownership of the total maturities and percentage of outstandings in each year of maturity (note, the data … Continue reading →

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Major Holders of the US Corporate Bond Market

Posted on April 12, 2017 by macromon
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Sovereign Risk and Debt Crises

Posted on April 2, 2017 by macromon

We received some interesting pushback on our recent post, Is the U.S. Government Bankrupt?  Not Even Close. The purpose of the post was to remind readers to not ignore the left side of a government’s balance sheet — assets —  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Italy, Japan, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

Posted on April 2, 2017 by macromon

The spread widened by about 5 bps this past week.   Macron still holds a slight lead in first round polling over Le Pen.   France’s Polling Commission of false reports by Russian news agencies, France’s polling watchdog has issued a warning … Continue reading →

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Yield Curve Flattens Back To Election Day Low

Posted on March 27, 2017 by macromon

The 10-year minus 2-year yield spread closed today at 1.12 basis points, back to the election day low.   All the steepening of the yield curve since the election day, widening out to 1.34 in December,  has vanished. We don’t think … Continue reading →

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The Broken Bond Market

Posted on March 18, 2017 by macromon

The Fed tightens on Wednesday and bonds rally.  What the hay? GaveKal, Jeff Gundlach,  and Jim Bianco nailed it in that every spec and their mother are/were short 10-year Treasuries. Source: Quandl (see here for interactive chart) But this is … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 58 Comments

The Bond Gold Correlation

Posted on March 2, 2017 by macromon

We have written quite a bit about the dynamics driving the gold market.  See here and here. As the short covering rally in the bond appears over and the Fed ramps up for more rate hikes, global PMIs and inflation … Continue reading →

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

Posted on February 5, 2017 by macromon

Starting to get interesting.   The French 10-year Oat- German 10-year bund spread widened and closed at its highest level since January 2014 on Friday.  Francois Fillon has dropped like a stone in the past few weeks as the political scandal … Continue reading →

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