Category Archives: Budget Deficit

Quote of the Day: Siemens’ McSwan Watch

Posted on May 4, 2011 by macromon

Siemens AG (SIE), Europe’s largest engineering company, reported decent numbers this morning, including strong growth from the emerging markets.   But listen to CEO,  Peter Loescher,  on the conference call this morning.   He is vigilantly monitoring the many macro swans,  including … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Geopolitical, Quote of the Day, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

10 Questions for Chairman Bernanke

Posted on April 26, 2011 by macromon

If we were attending the Fed’s historic press conference tomorrow,  here are the ten questions we would ask Chairman Bernanke: 1)  Do you think the new monetary policy tool of the Federal Reserve of paying interest on reserves (IOR) is … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Currency, Food Prices, Gold, Monetary Policy, Policy | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Components of the 10-Year Treasury Yield

Posted on April 13, 2011 by macromon

An interesting chart from the IMF showing the components of the 10-year Treasury yield.   Note how oxymoronic credit risk (in pink)  crept into the “risk-free” 10-year rate starting around the collapse of Bear Sterns.   The IMF opines on what has … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

Chart of the Day: Fed Ownership of the Yield Curve

Posted on April 11, 2011 by macromon

We’ve updated our chart illustrating the Fed ownership of the U.S. yield curve.   We’ve also included the percentage of total maturities the Fed owns in each year from the April 2011 data and December 2010 data.   Most of POMO buying … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Chart of the Day, Commodities, Credit, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

While Washington (and the Fed) Fiddle…..

Posted on April 8, 2011 by macromon

Sorry about the hiatus.  We’ve been working on a special project that could be big and will share when and if possible. Thought we’d start by re-posting our gas price sensitivity analysis to show the cost of the U.S. government’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Commodities, Muni Bonds | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Is This Why Bill Gross Dumped Treasuries?

Posted on March 17, 2011 by macromon

A couple of revealing charts from the Fed’s Flow of Funds data.   Both show net flows into Treasuries by creditor type and the Federal Government’s borrowing during each quarter.   Note, the quarterly data is annualized. The first chart illustrates how … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 14 Comments

Connecting the Dots: The Coming War Between Generations

Posted on March 1, 2011 by macromon

Almost everyday the newspaper headlines across the country warn of problems with local government budgets centered around public sector employee wages and benefits.  Today one read,  County Pension System Hits Tipping Point.  The other day it was how one city … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Currency, Demographics, Dollar, Economics, Employment, State and Local Government | Tagged , , , , | 11 Comments

South Carolina Politico Wants to Create State Currency

Posted on February 13, 2011 by macromon

State Sen. Lee Bright introduced legislation to create a new state currency in the event of a breakdown of the Federal Reserve System.  The Spartanburg Herald Journal reports, The Federal Reserve System has come under ever-increasing strain during the last … Continue reading →

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Japan: Risk of Sovereign Interest Rate Shock – IMF

Posted on January 27, 2011 by macromon

In the context of S&P’s recent sovereign downgrade of Japan we thought you’d be interested in this IMF piece published in October.  The basic thesis is that Japanese commercial banks have been the main buyers of JGBs over past few … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Chart of the Day, Economics, Japan, Monetary Policy, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Week in Review: BRICs to FRICs?

Posted on January 22, 2011 by macromon

Vive la France! Who would of “thunk” it? The French CAC outperforming India by 13 percent in the first three weeks of the year? Will Goldie’s Jim O’Neill now replace Brazil with France in the BRIC countries and rename the … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Charts, China, Crude Oil, Economics, Equities, Gold, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Week in Review | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment