Category Archives: Equities

Apple’s No Debt Ceiling Leads Market Higher

Posted on July 25, 2011 by macromon

Apple is doing the heavy lifting leading the market off its opening lows.   It appears the market is repricing Apple to a “permanently higher plateau.”   Yikes!  Careful there, Mr. Fisher! Seriously, we read lots of reports over the weekend about … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, China, Equities | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Armageddon Trade

Posted on July 24, 2011 by macromon

Here are the four markets we do not want to see large concurrent sustained moves in the direction as illustrated. (click here if picture is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , , | 8 Comments

European Banks Rockin’………….

Posted on July 21, 2011 by macromon

Take a look at Germany’s Commerzbank and Barclays of the UK.   Both of their U.S. ADRs are up around 10 percent today.    Optimism over a Marshall Plan for Greece is helping the European banks and the Euro today.  The … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Aminio Fraga on Charlie Rose

Posted on July 1, 2011 by macromon

Great interview with our old friend and colleague Arminio Fraga,  former head of Brazil’s central bank,  Soros hedge fund manager, and now head of Gavea Investments.   Arminio is a Princeton Ph.D. economist, understands markets,  and an expert on Brazil’s economist. … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, General Interest, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

It’s beginning to look a lot like? Choose your analog…

Posted on June 30, 2011 by macromon

It’s the end of the first half and we’ve updated our Presidential Stock Cycle, Decennial, and 1991 analog charts.   Click here, here,  and here for background.  Note,  the predicted performance of the Presidential and Decennial analogs are constructed from the … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Housing, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Markets Catch Traders Offside

Posted on June 28, 2011 by macromon

Looks like traders, including yours truly, were caught catawampus in a pair of Nike shorts (ouch!),  either not long enough or short, both equities and the Euro, coming into the week, even as some of the short-term signals were turning … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Equities, Euro | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Support of the Masses

Posted on June 24, 2011 by macromon

Just a quick little chart for the weekend to show how the major indices are at or near key support levels.   Here we have the CRB Index breaking short-term support yesterday and just barely closing through its 200-day moving average.   … Continue reading →

Posted in Charts, Commodities, Equities | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Who Owns the U.S. Equity Market?

Posted on June 21, 2011 by macromon

The following chart shows who holds U.S. equities, including foreign shares traded in the U.S.. at the end of March 2011.    Notice that 36 percent of the market value of shares were held by the household sector.  Our good … Continue reading →

Posted in Charts, Equities | Tagged , | 12 Comments

Sell in May and Go Away Trade: First 32 Days

Posted on June 16, 2011 by macromon

The table below illustrates that the 2011 “Sell in May and Go Away” trade has generated the highest return of the past 35 years.   That is, if you sold or shorted the S&P500 at the close of the last … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Global Stock Performance | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Godot Finally Shows, Nobody Home

Posted on June 14, 2011 by macromon

The markets were finally able to generate the bounce that everyone was waiting for,  but on relatively low volume, however.   Most of the move took place overnight on the release of China’s economic data.  Apple had a nice move,  … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Equities | Tagged , | Leave a comment