Category Archives: Sovereign Risk

House Budget Chief Ryan Channels His “Inner” Angela Merkel

Posted on January 7, 2011 by macromon

Bloomberg is reporting Angel Merkel Rep. Paul Ryan, Republican “Young Gun”and new House Budget Committee chairman,  says he and his party won’t bailout states who are facing potential defaults.   Just after the November election we posted this was coming. Listen … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Economics, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | 2 Comments

2011 Risk: China Watch

Posted on January 7, 2011 by macromon

Getting China right in 2011 will make or break the P&L this year.   The direction of the China’s economy will determine the direction of many markets, including commodities and emerging equities. We’re still trying to get a handle on the … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs, China, Economics, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

State and Local Governments, Man Your Battle Stations!

Posted on January 6, 2011 by macromon

Take a look at the new cover of the Economist. We have been all over the coming “battle royal” between the state and local governments and their public sector unions, but not as much as Mike Shedlock over at the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

It’s Official! Western Europe Now An Emerging Market

Posted on January 6, 2011 by macromon

The Markit SovX CEEMEA CDS index has traded through the SovX Western Europe CDS index for the first time.   Just a little over a decade ago, some of these countries in the CEEMEA were either: 1)  in hyperinflation; 2)  in … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Risk 2011: Fate of Commodities in China’s Hands

Posted on January 4, 2011 by macromon

We begin our analysis with a little perspective on how we view the crisis.   The pre-crisis global aggregate demand was primarily driven by an over leveraged U.S. consumer, who was spending “fake wealth” created by a housing bubble financed by … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Are we too short Bernanke?

Posted on January 2, 2011 by macromon

Sometimes we like to channel our inner bull, as in bovine, which is rare for ex-bond traders.  Trying to see all angles of the dimly lit statue we call the market is a necessity to manage the risk that: a)  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Outrage Grows Over Public Sector Unions – NY Times

Posted on January 2, 2011 by macromon

We’ve posted how underfunded state and local pensions are going to be a huge economic and political issue in 2011.   Go no further than the New Year’s Day NY Times article, Across the nation, a rising irritation with public … Continue reading →

Posted in Muni Bonds, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

A spectre is haunting Europe

Posted on December 22, 2010 by macromon

This is what’s  going to blow up the Europe.   All the cash and backstopping in the world is not going to solve the political problem.   Jim Corr, a member of one of our favorite Irish bands, The Corrs,  nails … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Japan Opposition Plans for “X-day” Bond Crash

Posted on December 22, 2010 by macromon

Japan’s opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)  says the government’s spending plans increase the risk of a collapse in the country’s bond market.   Bloomberg reports, “We’re approaching a danger zone where bond prices could plunge,” Yoshimasa Hayashi, the Liberal Democratic Party’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

Rollover Risk 2011- Sovereign Financing Needs

Posted on December 17, 2010 by macromon

Sovereign rollover risk will be one of the major issues to monitor for 2011.   The following are some key data tables and charts produced by the IMF.   The most vulnerable countries to a rollover shock and/or failed bond auctions … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment