Global Macro Monitor

We take a look of some of the more interesting charts in the various assets, indicies, and commodities we cover.

Apple
Probably the most talked about death cross in ages.  Apple’s 50-day moved through its 200-day moving average last week leaving the stock technically vulnerable.   This sell-off probably ends in a massive short squeeze sparked by some positive fundamental news, in our opinion.

Mexican Bolsa
Sneaky rally to new all-time high.  Mexico’s stock market has been the tortoise of Aesop’s Fables.  Slow, steady grind higher.

Brazil Bovespa
Mexico’s Bolsa must make Brazil’s Bovespa the hare of Aesop’s Fables.   The index has been weighed down by the China slowdown and the government’s use of some of large cap stocks, such as Petrobras,  as piggy banks.

India’s Sensex
The index has been one of the best performers in local currency terms this year.  It is also closing in on an all-time high.

Hang Seng
It’s no wonder that equity markets are rallying into the close for the year.  The Hang Seng is our favorite indicator species of global risk appetite.  The index has performed remarkably well given the Shanghai Composite if just off a 3-year low.

Shanghai Composite
The Shanghai bounced hard after making a 3-year low on Tuesday.   This index is the odd man out this year the only major stock market index we cover with a negative return.  It could be setting up as the trade of 2013, but still needs more technical work, such as taking out the 200-day moving average.

Japan’s Nikkei
The Nikkei has had a huge snapper rally based on the expectations Shinzo Abe will become Japan’s prime minister next Sunday and will lean heavily on the Bank of Japan to implement massive quantitative easing.  The yen has weakened considerably and taken the Nikkei up.  This policy will not be without big risks, however.

Australia’s All Ords
Not far from a 52-week high.  Australian equities are caught in between the risk on rally and weaker commodity markets, in our opinion.

U.K.’s FTSE
It will be interesting to see if the FTSE can break to new highs by the end of year on the back of the DAX and CAC breakouts.    We think traders, led by Santa Claus, will have the Christmas Spirit in them to move the index over 6000 by the New Year.

Euro
The euro has been in a definitive range over the past three months.  Having difficulty breaking above 1.31625.   Let’s see if Italy’s political problems and economic weakness can take out the downside at 1.2700

Yen
If they don’t sell the Abe news next week, the yen looks ready to break to new lows.   Feels like traders are setting up the Japan trade next year.  Long the Nikkei, short the yen.   Two death crosses this year! Outch!

Crude Oil
Crude oil has led the commodity complex lower.  Resistance levels are declining though crude is trying to hold its recent low of $84.52.  It should be helped by the China story, but the CFTC is working hard to take the spec bid out of the market.  Lower crude has now become equity positive.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see the low at 79ish tested.  Brent may be a different story, however.

Copper
Clearly bouncing with the Shanghai.   Tough one here.

Gold
Gold has been a very difficult trade this year.  If QE∞ can’t move the yellow metal to new highs, something must be wrong.   Though the actual printing of money has lagged greatly QE rhetoric.  The last time we looked the U.S. monetary base is slowly shrinking and the ECB has yet to engage in OMTs.   Maybe the rise of Shizno Abe as Japan’s Prime Minister next Sunday will be the spark.   And, maybe, not.   We have learned the hard way never to fall in love with a position.

Wheat
Cool chart.  Big spike and big, long flag formation.  A breakout to the upside would not be positive for the overall economy and global political stability.

(click here if charts are not observable)