Week in Review

Posted on August 26, 2012 by macromon

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Global Trend Indicators

Posted on August 26, 2012 by macromon

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Jury finds Samsung infringed on Apple’s patents

Posted on August 24, 2012 by macromon

This is just breaking on Bloomberg.   Could be big and have huge blowback in the tech sector, international trade and capital flows, and even geopolitical.

Apple’s stock is trading up almost $9 in after hours, just a few bucks off this week’s all-time high.  Google down almost 1 percent.  Market may be sniffing more market share for Apple.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) won a finding that Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) infringed a patent for mobile devices in the first lawsuit to go before a U.S. jury in a fight for dominance of the global smartphone market.

The nine-member jury began delivering its verdicts today in federal court in San Jose, California. Jurors heard each side present about 25 hours of evidence and testimony at the trial before they started deliberating Aug. 22. The panel was given more than two hours of instructions and a 20-page verdict form.

Wow, Apple even has the Midas touch in the courtroom!

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The Friday Nutcracker

Posted on August 24, 2012 by macromon

Today’s action felt a bit like the old short covering nutcracker, no?

Apple gave it all up at the close as did many of the other big cap faves.    The market got all lathered up about more monetary crack after Chairman Bernanke’s letter to Congressman Issa went viral,

There is scope for further action by the Federal Reserve to ease financial conditions and strengthen the recovery…

Difficult to read the signals of markets addicted to crack.  The fix better be good.

Nevertheless,  price is king and even though the S&P500 made a short slight trip below 1,400 this morning, that level, along with the 20-day moving average held.   The markets want to believe and lacks real selling, in our opinion.

The line in the sand next week is today’s low at 1,398.

Don’t forget about the “fire in the Jackson Hole” as all eyes will be on the Magic Draghi.

Have a great weekend!

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Stratfor: Asia’s Balance of Power

Posted on August 24, 2012 by macromon

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Weekly Eurozone Watch

Posted on August 24, 2012 by macromon

Key Data Points
German 10-year Bund 14 bps lower;
Italy 10-year 7 bps wider to the Bund;
Spain 12  bps wider;
Portugal 22 bps tighter;
Greece 26 bps tighter;
Ireland bond yield below 6 percent;
Profit taking in the banks after the big run;
Euro$ up 1.74 percent.

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The New Economic Messiah?

Posted on August 22, 2012 by macromon

This is going to end sooooo ugly!  Confidence is a fragile thing  and money demand can collapse faster than you can say Lehman Brothers, che!

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China Flash Manufacturing PMI at 47.8, 9-month low

Posted on August 22, 2012 by macromon

From today’s Markit release,

Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

“Falling orders dragged down the August flash PMI to a nine-month low, suggesting Chinese producers are still struggling with strong global headwinds. To achieve the stated policy goal of stabilizing growth and the jobs market, Beijing must step up policy easing to lift infrastructure investment in the coming months.” 


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Can You Hear That?

Posted on August 22, 2012 by macromon

The horn of QE3 ready to leave dock…

Participants also exchanged views on the likely benefits and costs of a new large-scale asset purchase program. Many participants expected that such a program could provide additional support for the economic recovery both by putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and by contributing to easier financial conditions more broadly. In addition, some participants noted that a new program might boost business and consumer confidence and reinforce the Committee’s commitment to making sustained progress toward its mandated objectives.  –  FOMC Minutes

The commentary begins,

Gross: #Fed minutes make #QE3 and extended period language an 80% probability. Front-end curve friendly.

The gold market speaks,

And the QE3 (well, QE2) sounds the horn,

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2012 Double Top?

Posted on August 22, 2012 by macromon

We don’t and nobody knows for certain.  The big reversal in Apple yesterday raises concerns and the whack a mole of the major indices, at least, takes a little complacency out of the market.

The big question in our minds is were those real sellers or just traders and short sellers who spanked the market yesterday?   If the later, and if they don’t see real selling and some bearish news to confirm their positions,  we know they’ll be scrambling to cover.

Our sense is the market needs to rest and consolidate here.  It would be healthy, in our opinion,  for the S&P500 to trade down to its intermediate trend line, currently around 1380 and hold.

That is how we see it setting up.   Could be wrong, always flexible, and always with a stop.

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