Oh Doctor!

We’re not talking Fatty Arbuckle and Buster Keaton,  but Dr. Copper, the metal, which is breaking key support at 3.70 today.  One of the indicator species of the health of the global economy,  copper is confirming trend breaks in other risk markets.

Copper gave us a nice head fake last week, which we were suspicious until it closed above its February high,

We’re still not convinced until it closes above the February 3  .9950 high.  

(click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Economics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The Bigs Break

More breaks in the big indices as the S&P500 and Dow have violated their short-term uptrend.   The Dow closed below its 50-day moving average today for the first time since mid-December, which was a vicious bear trap.   Doesn’t seem like there are many sellers here and they could be just waiting to see if the S&P500 can hold its 50-day.

U.S. Equities need some good solid earnings to regain the upward trajectory.  On the macro front,  the central banks are charged with shooing away the macro swans — China and Europe — that are starting to return to the radar.  Doesn’t look like we’ll get that from the PBOC after China’s hot inflation number.

Spain’s the word.   Bernanke’s the man.  Stay tuned.

(click here if charts are not observable)

Posted in China, Equities, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

China: The Ka-Ching Dynasty

…within 10 years, half the world’s billionaires will come from China.  While other countries are in panic mode over their stagnant economies, here they’re making money and they’re flaunting it.

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Apple’s Secret Sauce

Great piece from our good friend over at MindBodyForce.com.

Behind Success: Conviction

April 9th, 2012 by Andrew Szabo

A blog by Bill Taylor, on the blog network of Harvard Business Review, brings out the central importance of believing in what you do and expressing it with conviction.

Taylor is a founder of the magazine Fast Company (a great read for entrepreneurs, btw) and the author of Practically Radical: Not-So-Crazy Ways to Transform Your Company, Shake Up Your Industry, and Challenge Yourself (Harper Collins, 2011).

Taylor relates a story from Adam Lashinsky’s new book, Inside Apple. On January 21st, 2009, Apple CEO Tim Cook gave a press conference after Steve Jobs announced that he would take a medical leave. An analyst asked Cook about whether he might permanently replace Jobs and what that would mean for Apple’s prospects. Cook responded with an extemporaneous expression of Apple’s core values, “as if reciting a creed he had learned” in Sunday School: the mission to make a few great products; to emphasize simplicity; to promote teamwork. Cook ended, “And I think that regardless of who is in what job those values are so embedded in this company that Apple will do extremely well.”

Bill Taylor’s takeaway:

It’s not what you sell it’s what you believe. If there is one principle that explains why some organizations — Apple, Southwest Airlines, USAA, Cirque du Soleil, the Marine Corps, Pixar — consistently and dramatically outperform their rivals, it is that every person in the organization, regardless of job title or function, understands what makes the organization tick and why what the organization does matters.

Taylor cites Roy Spence’s book, It’s Not What You Sell, It’s What You Stand For. Spence co-founded the Austin based advertising agency, GSD&M. Spence gives as examples of successful, purposeful organizations BMW, Whole Foods Market and Southwest Airlines. Spence acknowledges that a successful company must have great products, a strong operating model and superb marketing. But behind these must be a mission,

an authentic sense of purpose — “a definitive statement about the difference you are trying to make in the world”— and a workplace with the “energy and vitality” to bring that purpose to life.

GSD&M actually has management with the functional title, “purposeologist.” I love the idea if not the neologism. One such purposeologist, Spence’s co-author, Haley Rushing, cites the renowned “Aggie” culture at Texas A&M University, where the saying is: “From the outside looking in, you can’t understand it. From the inside looking out, you can’t explain it.”

Taylor also cites the example of Umpqua Bank, in the Pacific Northwest. Its “branches are unlike anything you’ll find from other banks, and the culture is rooted in a commitment not just to serving customers but to entertaining them, surprising them, going beyond their loftiest expectations.”

Taylor closes with some telling questions for management to ask itself:  What do you promise that nobody else in your industry can promise? What do you deliver that nobody else can deliver? What do you believe that only you believe?  He concludes: “The organizations that can answer those questions crisply, clearly, and compellingly are the ones that win big and create the most value.”

To do as Cooke does so well at Apple, you need to ask yourself:  What are our core values? How successfully do we execute on them?  How clearly do we express those values to our clients?  When we speak of a winning corporate culture, we essentially mean the ensemble of these core values and their implementation.

(click here if graphic is not observable)

Posted in Apple | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Chart of the Day: Nonfarm Payrolls

In case you missed it over the Easter weekend, we’re reposting the charts from our NFP piece from Friday.

(click here if charts are not observable)

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Ugly Chart Contest: Trend Breakers

It’s gettin’ ugly out there again, folks.

(click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Technical Analysis, Ugly Chart Contest | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

60 Minutes: Europe’s Debt Crisis

CBS’ 60 minutes aired this report tonight. Well worth your time.

When the tide goes away you see those who do not have a swimming costume on.   And that was the case in Europe – Christine Lagarde

(click here if video is not observable)

Vodpod videos no longer available.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Week in Review: Correcting Into Earnings Season

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Posted in Week in Review | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Masters Week: Bubba!

Great Masters!

Bubba will now become a cult figure in the world of golf and it really felt like the passing of the torch to the new generation.   Tiger and Phil couldn’t get it done and have to play against a new generation who routinely bomb it 315 yards off the tee and shape the ball better than Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition!

Our man,  Adam Scott,  gave it his best making a hole in one today and playing the last 65 holes at 8 under par.  If only!

Could of made 8:1 betting on Bubba just yesterday!

Click here for today’s highlights.

We leave you with this:

Next time your spouse gets all lathered up that you’re playing too much golf,  go statistical.   You’re not playing golf, you’re exercising.   After all, the face of the club is only on the ball for just a 2,oooth of a second during a typical golf swing. 

Therefore, a golfer who plays 2 rounds per week for 50 years with an average score of 88 has really only played 3.8 minutes of golf!  That is,  the club face is on the ball only about 4.5 seconds per year for 50 years.  All else is irrelevant and just preparation, walking, psyching up or psyching out before striking the ball. 

On to the Olympic Club!

(click here if video is not observable)

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Global Trend Indicators

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Posted in Global Trend Indicators | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment